coolhand's Account Talk

[tom4jean]

What do you think of the golden cross in the Dow a couple days ago? Surprised I haven't seen any chatter about it on the forums.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ma...is-forming-in-the-dow-industrials-11596740412

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[coolhand]

What do you think of the golden cross in the Dow a couple days ago? Surprised I haven't seen any chatter about it on the forums.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ma...is-forming-in-the-dow-industrials-11596740412

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I would say it dovetails with many other indicators (breadth, etc.) While we can always find both bullish and bearish indicators at any given time, the trend is still up and we have smart money staying long.

 

[coolhand]

The S&P has now risen 7 trading days in a row.




I've added a couple of months to the charts so we can keep an eye on the February peak. We can see that the market has actually closed in on that peak quickly in the past few trading sessions. So potential resistance looms; though I believe (at this time) that assuming price tests it, it will eventually push past that peak. We may only be days away or it could be somewhat longer.



Breadth hit another high and remains bullish.

No change in my sentiment. I'm still bullish.

 

[coolhand]

After 7 consecutive "up" days for the S&P, the market finally pulled back. It was due.




A moderate pullback is obviously healthy for the market and does virtually nothing to hurt the technical indicators.

Breadth dipped a bit, but remains bullish.

Futures are up early this evening, so maybe the bulls bounce back tomorrow. In any event, I see no reason to pull in my horns, so I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The bears hopes of turning the market hit a snag today as the bulls sent price(s) to fresh highs on this rally. Is it really a surprise given smart money is bullish?




Yesterday's pullback was simply that; a pullback. There is still no evidence that anything has changed. The charts are bullish, period. But I don't want to ignore potential resistance at the February peak, which is drawing closer.



Nothing wrong with this chart either. It hit another high and remains solidly bullish.

Need I say what my sentiment is?

NAAIM reports tomorrow. See you then.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM came in a bit more bullish today. It's about as high a bullish reading as I've seen.

 

[Elfer]

Coolhand, does this reading in any way say the market may be overbought? Or is that not what NAAIM measures.

 

[Elfer]

Disregard, my question, I researched. Keep up the good work, enjoy your insights!

 

[coolhand]

The market traded mixed on the day, with the S&P dipping modestly, while the DWCPF closed modestly higher.




Breadth dipped, but remains quite bullish.

Today's latest NAAIM sentiment reading remained bullish.

Steady as she goes. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

The bulls managed to close out the week (last week) with moderate gains.




The up-trend remains intact and the charts continue to look good, but potential resistance is not far overhead now.



Breadth remains bullish.

We saw that NAAIM came in quite bullish last Thursday. TSP Talk got more bullish in the latest survey, so we are aligned with the smart money.

Let's see if price can test resistance this week. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand's Account Talk

The bulls began the week with more gains.




And both charts show price getting very near the February high. A test of that high could come any day now. Volume has fallen off the past few days, but that's normal in mid-August.

Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

While the market closed mixed on the day, the S&P 500 in particular added a modest gain.




Price is now testing resistance on the S&P from the February peak. Interestingly, there was no serious challenge from the bears as the February peak was tested. But the bulls didn't press either, so price pulled back from that peak just a bit. The DWCPF is close to testing its peak, but it isn't quite there yet.

Breadth remains bullish.

I feel pretty confident that price will eventually push pass resistance. Likely sooner rather than later, but we'll let the market tell us.

I remain bullish.

 

[ToddB]

As always I really appreciate your insight and updates CH, keep on steaming ahead just like we want this market to do.


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[coolhand]

Resistance at the February peak manifested today as price was rejected and the market fell back.




It was nothing dramatic. Price is very likely to probe resistance again very soon given the relatively moderate pullback.



Breadth has fallen off recently, but does remain bullish.

Tomorrow is Thursday and that's when we get a fresh NAAIM reading. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

There was very little change to the NAAIM reading today, so it remains solidly bullish.

 

[bmneveu]

Pretty heated argument on CNBC right now over market breadth. One talking head says its terrible and that a few stocks are holding the whole thing up. Other head saying he's totally wrong and that breadth is excellent. Thought I would drop that here as we see you post breadth every day as being very good.

 

[coolhand]

Pretty heated argument on CNBC right now over market breadth. One talking head says its terrible and that a few stocks are holding the whole thing up. Other head saying he's totally wrong and that breadth is excellent. Thought I would drop that here as we see you post breadth every day as being very good.

Is there anything on the internet that's not debated (constantly)?

I only go by the NYSE, which comprises the bulk of the market, but certainly not the whole thing. It's the closest index (for breadth) that matches the TSP funds (C, S). The chart I post of breadth has been in an uptrend for years and it is currently not far off its all-time high, which it has been hitting over and over for some time now.

Another question might be how healthy is breadth overall. Without getting into specifics, I would acknowledge that an argument can be made that it does show potential problems when taken as a whole, but breadth is not as important as price in my opinion, though they are closely related in terms of trend. And the trend is where we make our money.

 

[coolhand]

The bears tried to keep it going as price gapped lower at the open, but the bulls stepped quickly after to slowly bring it back to the neutral line and by the afternoon into positive territory.




The gains weren't huge, but we got a reversal. Test of resistance is in progress once more. Above that, clear skies.



Breadth was negative again today, but price rose and that's what counts. Breadth remains bullish, but under modest pressure.

NAAIM came in relatively unchanged and remains very bullish.

I remain bullish. Fresh highs are likely soon.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls tacked on more gains in the C and S funds last week, though the gains for the S fund were on the modest side.




We have a fresh all-time high in the S&P 500. The DWCPF is not far behind, but it is struggling a bit.



Interestingly, breadth has been struggling the past week or so as well. I'd say there is a rotation in progress, but I don't monitor stocks to the depth like I once did. I'm just looking at the big picture and focused on price, breadth and smart money.

The TSP Talk sentiment survey remains bullish, but not as bullish as they were last week, which is somewhat interesting given that the smart money remains heavily bulled up. It's just an observation, so don't read too much into that.

I remain bullish.

 

[bmneveu]

Fresh highs are likely soon.

Good call! It's still early, but futures are up quite nicely this morning.