coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Price on the S&P 500 gapped higher at the open in today's trading and price remained elevated throughout the session, closing near the high day.




The DWCPF has yet to push past its February high, but knocking on the door.



Breath ticked higher today and is bullish.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

After some negative/sideways action early on, price found a way to break to the upside in the afternoon session and close positive on the day.




There is no resistance above on the S&P chart, but price on the DWCPF has not yet cleared resistance. I suspect it will eventually follow the S&P 500 and that it may not be much longer before it does.



Breadth was a bit weak today, but does remain bullish overall.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Coolhand's Account Talk

Of late, it's been an uneven rally and it's showing up in the breadth reading. Is it of concern? I don't think so. Not as long as you are in index funds.




And it's the S&P 500 in particular that is currently leading the DWCPF. I don't know how long that goes on. Normally, I'd expect the DWCPF to play catch up sooner or later. I have no reason not to expect that this time either. But it's not like the DWCPF isn't doing well; it's just not matching the S&P 500.



We can see the relative weakness in breadth as the signal dipped even as the S&P 500 continued to rally. I am not looking at this as a warning sign, either.

Tomorrow we get a fresh NAAIM reading. We'll soon see if they have any concern over the market divergences.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

As bullish as NAAIM has been of late, they are even more bullish after this morning's reading. I don't have to tell you what that means. :smile:

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The melt-up continued today, though it was on the volatile side.




Price on the S&P continues to eke higher, while price on the DWCPF is now testing resistance.



Breadth is not advancing (no new highs), so the overall rally in the broader market is not seeing as broad a segment of stocks participating. It's not necessarily bearish, but I think it is unusual.

And as I posted earlier today, NAAIM came in a bit more bullish. As long as they remain this bullish, I don't see much chance for any serious selling pressure.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls notched some good gains last week as all 3 TSP stocks saw price rise significantly. Especially the S&P 500, which captured a weekly gain of 3.29%.




The DWCPF has finally joined the S&P 500 in attaining a new all-time high. It lags the S&P 500 overall, but it's doing well regardless. I note that RSI is overbought on both charts; especially the S&P 500.

Is this a problem?

NAAIM doesn't think so.



Breadth rose on Friday and remains bullish; though breadth overall has not been hitting fresh highs despite the rally in the indicies. That's not an issue, just an observation.

NAAIM (smart money) is heavily bulled up and that's our key indicator in terms of market risk. There are a lot of negative headlines out there (nothing new, really), but as long as the smart money is bullish I would say that we should be too (but not complacent).

TSP Talk came in bulled up from the previous week and is now more aligned with the NAAIM reading.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The last day of August saw the market close mixed, though it was only because a late day sell-off took some of the indices out of positive territory. It wasn't anything unusual.




The charts continue to look very bullish, though overbought.



Breadth remains so-so, though still bullish.

The smart money is bulled up, so I see no reason not to expect more upside. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Overbought got more overbought today, but who cares? Breadth isn't making new highs either, but who cares?

Price is rising and ultimately that's what we care about.




There is no overhead resistance on either chart.



Breadth remains bullish, but tracking sideways.

With NAAIM heavily bulled up, this rally could have some serious legs. Their sentiment can linger in one direction for many weeks. We'll have to see, of course, but it's possible.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The S&P 500 has really come alive the past month or so. The index gapped higher and closed for a significant gain near the high of the day. The DWCPF was not as impressive, but it did manage a moderate gain.




What can I say about these charts that I haven't already said. They are overbought, but also bullish with no overhead resistance.



Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.

We get a fresh sentiment reading from NAAIM tomorrow.

I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Bullishness among the NAAIM money managers has slipped bit, but not a lot. Collectively, they are still very bulled up. In that context, today's weakness would appear to be a buying opportunity.

 

[coolhand]

It would be nice to have warnings before "they" decide to whack the market, but we don't get warnings (unless you include the ones we see every single day for years on end). Those are really helpful, aren't they? There's always those who are warning us of dire consequences and those who are telling us the exact opposite. That's the battle between bulls and bears (that's actually a superficial reference, but I don't want to go there).

Of course, if you're an insider (which we aren't)...

Such is life in the big casino. As George Carlin once said, "It's a big club and you ain't in it".

Now back to your regularly scheduled market analysis. :smile:




Okay, so they smacked the market today (along with precious metals are crypto), where does that put us? Has anything changed?

Yes, the sell-off erased the past week or so of gains. But look at the RSI. It fell significantly, so now we don't have to worry about being overbought (for now). Futures are pointing to more losses on Friday, but that may change by the open.



Breadth is now neutral as it continues to bob up and down.

The main indicator is that NAAIM, while not as bullish as last week, is still pretty bulled up. I can't ignore that, but the market might. We'll have to see.

I really don't like these hard 180 degree turns, because they generally are not organic. And they don't always mean a change in market direction that goes on for a few days. Technicians like to see harder evidence of a change for that very reason.

And since the smart money isn't flinching very much, I am going to remain bullish for now.

 

[coolhand]

Everyday and evening I check my online sources for hints of change that may affect stocks, precious metals and crypto, but I don't incorporate that source information in my market analysis; mainly because it is not often I perceive potential warnings that may affect those assets.

In my last post, I did say that I don't like these 180 degree hard turns because they tend not to be organic. That means that an agenda may be getting pushed. This evening I have heard some information that validates that concern.

I do not know how things are going to play out from here because this a battle that appears ready to be made manifest. What I can say is to expect volatility and more selling than we've been seeing. But because I expect volatility, we should see attempts to keep the market from falling apart. Remember, I cannot predict how something like this plays out (assuming it does happen), but the hard sell-off we had today is a potential clue.

I know my concern has a bearish aspect to it, but it's really just giving you a heads up that market character may be about to change.

NAAIM is very bullish right now, but their bullishness may not last. That's what happened early in the year when the market was attacked and we had that big decline. NAAIM was bullish then too, but they reversed within a couple of weeks of the decline and got bearish.

Do not be complacent. Be willing to change your strategy and expectations should the action warrant such. I will continue to provide information along the way as I get it.

 

[nasa1974]

Thanks CH for your analysis. Always a nightly read.
I was 1% away from a bench mark and then I was going to sit in "G" for awhile. Since September usually isn't very good market wise. Loosing 3.5% today I'm not sure what I'll do, but I sure can't ride it down like I did in March.

Good luck to all.

 

[shitepoke]

Cool...u da man. i cant do an evening w/o checking in with your stuff...definitely watch Bquat, but you don't get enough Cred N. I read what you have to say most definitely Nasa so keep doin' what you do...
EJJ

 

[coolhand]

Re: Coolhand's Account Talk

Well, the bulls were moving right along until Thursday when significant selling pressure manifested. Like myself, some of you were noting that there really wasn't much to pin the selling pressure on (where did it come from?). It really doesn't have to have a narrative. The action was bearish and could be an indication of any number of things, but political pressure is probably near the top. I'm not going to unpack that and will let that statement stand on its own.

The fact is, we have to navigate the market regardless.




Friday's action saw price test the rising 50 dma on the DWCPF and bounce well off that support line. Price did not test the same support line on the S&P, but it might during this next week. Volume has been higher than normal since the selling started (another clue).



Interestingly, breadth is not falling apart, but is instead dancing sideways. I view this a neutral, but if the selling doesn't stop, this indicator is likely to begin falling into bearish territory.

NAAIM was less bulled up last Thursday, but they were still bullish. We only get one reading a week on this sentiment measure so we have to keep that in mind. This group of money managers can change their sentiment at any time, but we won't know it till the next reading is given. I note that TSP Talk sentiment got even more bullish. In the current context of this market, that may be problematic. Ordinarily, with NAAIM bulled up I'd not give the TSP Talk reading a second thought, but we may be in the beginning stage of a change in market character (stress "may be").

I am going neutral given the mixed picture, but also because the selling pressure does not appear to be organic. Caution is now warranted until we see some degree of stability return. I also want to see where NAAIM stands on the next reading, but that's toward the end of the week.

 

[amoeba]

hey Cool, 2 days ago you mentioned the potential of some agenda being pushed, and hearing evidence of that being validated. What validated what agenda? I'm already at 80% G, but if another March is coming, let us in on it.

Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk

 

[tsptalk]

Might want to keep this conversation to PMs. Thanks.

 

[coolhand]

hey Cool, 2 days ago you mentioned the potential of some agenda being pushed, and hearing evidence of that being validated. What validated what agenda? I'm already at 80% G, but if another March is coming, let us in on it.

Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk

I spend a lot of time listening to the alternative media, but I've been doing it for a long time and have come to be selective about what I pay attention to.

 

[coolhand]

As I suspected since the selling started last Thursday, market character appears to have changed. How deep will this go? I have no idea, but support lines are already being tested.




Price closed under the 50 dma on the DWCPF, while price on the S&P 500 closed just above it. Volume remains elevated.



As I mentioned in my last post when breadth was still looking sideways I said that if the selling continued, breadth will begin to fall. And now it has. It is now bearish.

Because of the suspect nature of this decline, I am not leaning toward a quick recovery. I am also not expecting a gloom and doom final outcome. For market timers, an opportunity is likely at hand.

It isn't often I go against NAAIM, but I am flipping bearish. They were bullish at the beginning of the deep decline early in the year, but eventually went bearish. This action is similar enough to get defensive despite that last bullish sentiment reading.

 

[flalaw97]

NAAIM dropped 12% from 8/26 to 9/2. I am guessing this Thursday it drops another 10% at least. Because of the week gap in between surveys, it wouldn't surprise me if they are already headed bearish - just haven't reported out yet.