coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Things were going swimmingly for the bulls for a good part of the trading day, but as price hit the previous top on the S&P the bears came in and swamped the boat. Price fell well into negative territory as a result of the ambush.




So, nothing has really changed. The bulls and bears continue their tug-of-war (literally).



Breadth fell, but not by much and remains technically bullish.

The bears are not going to make it easy, which will get frustrating for many of us. But the smart money isn't betting on the downside and that's a big deal. Sure, things can change, but they aren't smart money for nothing. Sooner or later one side or the other is going to get pulled into the mud and I'm betting it's the bears. I just don't know the timing.

That's where things stand with the current indicators. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

If you haven't noticed, the up one day and down the next market has seen 6 reversals in as many tradings days (S&P). The slug-fest continued today with the bulls landing the latest punch.




Price on the S&P did close at a fresh high, though it had a higher intra-day high the prior trading day. I'd say the bears are losing this battle; albeit in drawn out fashion.



Breadth remains positive.

So, price is very close to hitting the June high (again). We have the smart money on our side, so closing above that June high is probably not far off.

I remain bullish.

 

[Whipsaw]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

Today looks like it could be #2 of a 1-2 punch!

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

Today looks like it could be #2 of a 1-2 punch!

It sure does. But the bears seem to be desperate and may counter again. I do think that at some point they will be humiliated (bears). I just don't see them winning back control of price at this time.

 

[coolhand]

Price is currently testing the June peak for the 2nd time. Price on the DWCPF is not quite there yet, but it's certainly not far away. If the bears can't counter, the bulls may have a great week this week. :smile:

 

[nasa1974]

GO BULLS!!!!!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Wooo....hooo. Ride Em Cowboy!!! :cheesy:

 

[nnuut]

Yeah! Do it again tomorrow!

 

[coolhand]

Re: Market Snaps Back - Posted by Coolhand

The bulls followed up yesterday's right hook with an upper cut today, but the bears didn't quite go down. They were heavily staggered though with a trickle of blood oozing down the left side of the nose. The referee had to step in and check to see if the bears could go on, but then the bell rang and the trading session ended. :laugh:




Price on the S&P bumped up against resistance at the June peak again, and while it didn't break it, it closed pretty much right on it. The DWCPF is close behind.



Breadth is rising and is now looking decidedly bullish to my eye.

What I am seeing has me thinking an upside breakout may be coming very soon. It might even be imminent. And tomorrow we'll get a fresh NAAIM read.

The bears are wounded and battered. Can they stop the bulls? I'm thinking not, but we'll know soon enough. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM came in a bit more bullish than last week. It remains a green light for stocks by this smart money sentiment.

 

[coolhand]

The upside breakout remained elusive today as stocks pulled back a bit.




Looking at the charts we can see that price remains not far off the June peak. Volume was lower than usual. It's like the market is waiting for something. Some bit of news before popping higher.

Breadth dipped modestly, but remains bullish.

NAAIM came in a bit more bullish. You won't find many bears among them right now.

I remain steadfastly bullish.

 

[coolhand]

The bulls are knocking on the door of a potential upside breakout.




We can see that price on both charts are close to the June peak, which is resistance.



Breadth looks much the same, with the signal near the June peak.

The TSP Talk sentiment came in bullish again. NAAIM is also bullish and that's the one that counts in my book. We didn't get a breakout last week, but the market is poised for one at any time. Of course, we could see a rejection at resistance, but I am of the opinion that as long as the smart money is bullish, we should be too.

 

[nnuut]

NO, NO, NO, I don't smoke it No more!

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

Did you notice? The S&P 500 hit a fresh high today, and yes it was above the June peak. Hopefully, it sticks.




While the S&P has had a modest breakout, the DWCPF is still a hair away from it's own fresh high. I'm sure it will get there.



Breadth dipped very modestly, but remains bullish.

So, it's playing out to plan so far. I fully expect more gains in the future, but of course it won't be a straight shot. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

Price continued to advance today, though a late day swoon erased the bulk of session gains.




We aren't off to the races, but as long as price is steadily moving higher who's going to complain? There is still more resistance above that will need to be dealt with, but I doubt it will happen in the short term. The February peak (all-time high) is near the 3400 mark on the S&P, so the index has about 140 points to go yet to get to that level (assuming we get there).



Breadth has joined the party with a fresh high and remains bullish.

Aside from normal pullbacks associated with a price that is advancing overall, I see no reason not to remain bullish. A fresh NAAIM reading is just 2 days away.

 

[coolhand]

Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

Looks like we may have a melt up in progress as the bulls closed out the session with moderate gains today.




The charts look very good right now.



Breadth looks very good too.

NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

BTW, the melt up was predicted by the NAAIM reading. And to think their website warns you not to use their sentiment for determining market direction.

Yeah, right.

 

[Bullitt]

If we're in a melt up, I hope we're closer to the beginning than end.

RE: NAAIM; certainly more of an art than a science and we'll see how many algo traders piled in (or bought to cover) this week with the S&P 500 breakout. Weekly gap at 3350 to be filled sooner than later.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I like NAAIM. What I really value is that it is the sentiment of companies in this group that report their exposure to equities each week. This Investor's Sentiment (contrarian)indicator often seems more right than wrong, although I've never studied the correlation to actual gains or losses that occur within a week of the sentiment reported.

https://financestrategysystem.com/naaim-exposure-index/

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM came in a bit more bullish this week. This market should continue to edge higher.