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NASDAQ looks like its ready to move higher. I may be wrong, but the way I see it, next week is setting up to be a big market mover. There's either going to be alot of gain or a whole lot of pain. Many indexes are sitting near critical support. The strange thing is that you don't really see the fear in the VIX like back in August..... maybe because of what helicopter Ben said Jan 10th....... " Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke yesterday gave the clearest indication yet that the central bank will move aggressively to cut interest rates to try to prevent a serious economic downturn. " http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzleft5533132jan11,0,6109634.story


View attachment 3049

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=NASDAQ
 
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Nobody knows what next week will bring. I can only look at the charts and try to figure out what might happen. With the Fed showing their cards of aggressively cutting rates as needed, what will the dollar likely do next week? This may be a stretch, but for the EFA index ( used my some to track the I fund ), how about a ' Falling Wedge Reversal' pattern.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge

View attachment 3053

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=EFA
 
vectorman great charts any chance you have a chart of the markets when the fed cuts and the reaction before and after the cuts
 
Now on the C fund there is a "perfect" "Bearish Harami" and I pasted a explanation to follow. Now I did not know that was coming until after the close and was able to identify it. The current short term trend is up with the bounce so the Harami is signaling a down reversal.

Here is the S&P chart to look at: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SP...d=p26694867262



Bearish Harami
1.gif
A trend indicated by a large candlestick followed by a much smaller candlestick whose body is located within the vertical range of the larger candle's body. Such a pattern is an indication that the previous upward trend is coming to an end.

bearishharami.gif

2.gif
A bearish harami may be formed from a combination of a large white or black candlestick, and a smaller white or black candlestick. The smaller the second candlestick, the more likely the reversal. It is thought to be a strong sign that a trend is ending when a large white candle stick is followed by a small black candlestick.
 
I will add that the S fund has a bearish Harami also, just not as perfectly centered in the prior day candlestick.
 
wilshire 4500 100 ema crossing 200 ema today, been above since 10/2004.
S&P 500 about to do the same, signaling downtrend in 11/2000 then crossing back up signaling bull market in 6/2003.

Looks like a good 'Birchtree' indicator :)
 
I still look for the markets to finish higher at weeks end. This environment is not for the faint hearted. I can only take comfort in reading the charts and seeing the markets are basing for a move higher. But if it doesn't happen I'll use my stops and take the loss, looking for another set up.

VIX chart.

View attachment 3078
 
As bad as it seems, we may be about to bottom. The VIX is now near the top of a down trending channel. But we may break above that if more panic and capitulation sets in. Which, brings us closer to a short term bottom.

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SPX chart. Good volume showing as capitulation kicks in from those who cannot stand the pain any more. Some bottom fishing starting to show up. Markets are in a down trend and still high risk. If you can't stand losing 1-3% in a few days, just wait for the MACD to turn Bullish ( black line moving up through the red line on the MACD mini chart). The Full STO is near a buy. Look at the VIX chart above and compare movement from late Nov to mid Dec to SPX chart. Note: I'm not telling you to buy. I'm just telling what may happen from looking at the charts. If you looked at my ITF moves, you'll notice I did not go all in at once, but just fell into the market buying dips. Still keeping 25% in G in case I'm wrong about the bottom. We still may have a ways to fall.:blink:


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