Chart Analysis

One thing I would like to note here- and that is the relationship of the S fund gains and the C fund gains.

During "normal times", the steady plodding on the upside, I have noticed that the S fund seems to take the lead, and then, when we've hit periods of stalling out, the C fund seems to do better for a while, and then they both start falling.

In December and January, it seemed to me (and again, this just may be nothing, but it's my feeling) that the C fund was leading the short term ups before the falling rocks again. C fund being the dominant fund in play.

However, this last week we've seen better moves by the S fund than the C.

This COULD be indicative of something new taking place. A foundation for a turnaround, perhaps.

Or, it could be nothing at all.

I just have been watching this. And today S fund seems to be healthier.

Just two cents for consideration.
 
One thing I would like to note here- and that is the relationship of the S fund gains and the C fund gains.

During "normal times", the steady plodding on the upside, I have noticed that the S fund seems to take the lead, and then, when we've hit periods of stalling out, the C fund seems to do better for a while, and then they both start falling.

In December and January, it seemed to me (and again, this just may be nothing, but it's my feeling) that the C fund was leading the short term ups before the falling rocks again. C fund being the dominant fund in play.

However, this last week we've seen better moves by the S fund than the C.

This COULD be indicative of something new taking place. A foundation for a turnaround, perhaps.

Or, it could be nothing at all.

I just have been watching this. And today S fund seems to be healthier.

Just two cents for consideration.
"S" and "C" take turns!! Sharing is good!:D
 
One thing I would like to note here- and that is the relationship of the S fund gains and the C fund gains.
During "normal times", the steady plodding on the upside, I have noticed that the S fund seems to take the lead, and then, when we've hit periods of stalling out, the C fund seems to do better for a while, and then they both start falling.
In December and January, it seemed to me (and again, this just may be nothing, but it's my feeling) that the C fund was leading the short term ups before the falling rocks again. C fund being the dominant fund in play.
However, this last week we've seen better moves by the S fund than the C.
This COULD be indicative of something new taking place. A foundation for a turnaround, perhaps.
Or, it could be nothing at all.
I just have been watching this. And today S fund seems to be healthier.
Just two cents for consideration.
Hi James,
Below attached is current p&f for the S-Fund - it may show there's something to what everyone's discussing. What I'm confused over is the Price Objective (PO) shown as much Higher than the established Overhead Resistance (red) Line (& no Blue "Support-line below - (I thought, this is odd??). Any thoughts on this seeming anomally?? -Maybe this suggests any day we might indicate have the possiblitity that the worm may turn??
I do think the "S" will follow wherefore the "C" goes though! :)
VR
-PS: Just noticed this is same with the "C" p&f chart (in the other thread).
View attachment 3389
 
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The correction of 1998. If you were waiting for a big pull back after the double bottom to get off the sidelines, none really showed up after the MACD crossed zero.

View attachment 3673

How do you factor in $108 bbl oil, rising unemployment, 25% increase in cost of food and 80,000 jobs lost into this chart?
It makes no sence to my why the market is going up..... Bear Trap???
 
Gumby,

You must remember the market is omnipotent and is a future discounting mechanism - it may already be seeing what is not yet visible to the rest of the unbelieving bears. That's just how it's supposed to work - be right and sitb tight.
 
DJTA still on a tear, but now at the top of a channel. No one is forseeing a new high soon, but if oil drops some more, could be just what the doctor ordered. I still don't see any bullishness from co-workers yet, mostly doubt and disbelief. Many still in the G fund too scared to move.


View attachment 3887

Primary Bull Market - Stage 1 - Accumulation
Hamilton noted that the first stage of a bull market was largely indistinguishable from the last reaction rally of a bear market. Pessimism, which was excessive at the end of the bear market, still reigns at the beginning of a bull market. It is a period when the public is out of stocks, the news from corporate America is bad and valuations are usually at historical lows. However, it is at this stage that the so-called "smart money" begins to accumulate stocks. This is the stage of the market when those with patience see value in owning stocks for the long haul. Stocks are cheap, but nobody seems to want them. This is the stage where Warren Buffet stated in the summer of 1974 that now was the time to buy stocks and become rich. Everyone else thought he was crazy.

In the first stage of a bull market, stocks begin to find a bottom and quietly firm up. When the market starts to rise, there is widespread disbelief that a bull market has begun. After the first leg peaks and starts to head back down, the bears come out proclaiming that the bear market is not over. It is at this stage that careful analysis is warranted to determine if the decline is a secondary movement (a correction of the first leg up). If it is a secondary move, then the low forms above the previous low, a quiet period will ensue as the market firms and then an advance will begin. When the previous peak is surpassed, the beginning of the second leg and a primary bull will be confirmed.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:dow_theory
 
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Oil is going nowhere but up, no reason for it not to as long as there are countries like Japan that have to import all their fossil fuels, or until alternative energy resources are economically available.
 
Oil is going nowhere but up, no reason for it not to as long as there are countries like Japan that have to import all their fossil fuels, or until alternative energy resources are economically available.

Banks...Oil...Dollar...Inflation , just never know what tomorrow may bring.:notrust:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crash_of_1973–4

Stock market crash of 1973–4
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The stock market crash of 1973–4 was a stock market crash that lasted between January 1973 and December 1974. Affecting all the major stock markets in the world, particularly the United Kingdom,[1] it was one of the worst stock market downturns in modern history.[2] The crash came after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system over the previous two years, with the associated 'Nixon Shock' and United States dollar devaluation under the Smithsonian Agreement. It was compounded by the outbreak of the 1973 oil crisis in October of that year.

In the 694 days between 11 January 1973 and 6 December 1974, the New York Stock Exchange's Dow Jones Industrial Average benchmark lost over 45% of its value, making it the seventh-worst bear market in the history of the index.[2] 1972 had been a good year for the DJIA, with gains of 15% in the twelve months. 1973 had been expected to be even better, with Time magazine reporting, just 3 days before the crash began, that it was 'shaping up as a gilt-edged year'.[3] In the two years from 1972 to 1974, the American economy slowed from 7.2% real GDP growth to -2.1% contraction, while inflation (by CPI) jumped from 3.4% in 1972 to 12.3% in 1974.[1]

Worse was the effect in the United Kingdom, and particularly on the London Stock Exchange's FT 30, which lost 73% of its value during the crash.[4] From a position of 5.1% real GDP growth in 1972, the UK went into recession in 1974, with GDP falling by 1.1%.[1] At the time, the UK's property market was going through a major crisis, and a secondary banking crisis forced the Bank of England to bail out a number of lenders.[5] In the United Kingdom, the crash ended after the rent freeze was lifted on 19 December 1974, allowing a readjustment of property prices; over the following year, stock prices rose by 150%.[5] However, unlike in the United States, inflation continued to rise, to 25% in 1975, giving way to the era of stagflation.

All the main stock indexes of the future G7 bottomed out between September and December 1974, having lost at least 34% of their value in nominal terms, and 43% in real terms.[1] In all cases, the recovery was a slow process. Although West Germany's market was fastest to recover, returning to the original nominal level within eighteen months, even it did not return to the same real level until June 1985.[1] The United Kingdom didn't return to the same market level until May 1987 (only a few months before the Black Monday crash), whilst the United States didn't see the same level in real terms until August 1993: over twenty years after the 1973–4 crash began.

View attachment 3895

List of recessions in the United States...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions

List of stock market crashes...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes
 
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I remember 1973-74 well. That was when I first started investing - good thing I didn't have much money to throw away, but I certainly learned a few valuable lessons.
 
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