May 9, 2025
Things are happening in the tariff world and yesterday was a win for the stock market as the US and UK came to a deal on trade. There was a disturbing sell off in the final 30 minutes of trading, and lately in this volatile market, it has either been a boom or bust in that final hour of trading. Bond yields moved up pushing the F-fund lower, and the dollar moved up sharply to keep the I-fund in the red on the day. Small caps led with a near 2% gain, but the S-fund chart is nearing another wall of resistance.
The volatility is still in the air yet it has been tough on the underinvested to find a pullback opportunity to buy in the last few weeks. As I continue to bring up, we had a similar environment back in 2020 after the covid crash where stocks moved up relentlessly with few opportunities to buy a meaningful dip. Let's see what we have now:
Here's a comparison of the 2025 S&P 500 (C-fund) and the 2020 chart coming off their lows. Some of those lines are moving averages and some are support and resistance lines, and we like to see what happens when the index hits a confluence of these lines because it can tell how much momentum the market does or does not have.
The red arrow on the 2020 chart is approximately where we are today in the comparison. If the current chart is going to follow the 2020 path, it looks like we could see some sideways to mildly positive action going forward with the occasional 2-day pullback, but rarely 3 or more down days in a row so you had to basically chase the mildest of dips to get onboard.
And here's what happened in 2020 after the chart above. It got a little more choppier but again you had to act quickly to get in on a dip.
Of course there's no guarantee that 2025 will be a mirror image of 2020, but it is a representation of investor psychology and how they act in certain situations, and it's remarkable how similarly they act under comparable situations.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield jumped higher yesterday but remains in the range that has been acceptable to the stock market. The stock market was throwing its tantrum when yields fell out of the range in early April.
The dollar (UUP) had a second straight big gain and that has been weighing on the TSP leading I-fund this week. This is another chart at an important pivot point. The inverted head and shoulders pattern did its thing - breaking to the upside, but now it is hitting the top of what could be a bear flag.
The QQQ is the Nasdaq 100 or the top tech stocks on the Nasdaq. You can see that it is also at a crucial pivot point as it hit and stalled again at the 200-day moving average. Small caps are in a similar situation as you'll see down below.
A little follow up to something I wrote in the April 15th commentary. I mentioned the TSP's bitcoin mutual fund option called BTCFX. In reference to bitcoin I said, "The chart is currently struggling below its major moving averages and remains in a downtrend, but with bitcoin down 23% off its highs, it's certainly worth considering for anybody who has been waiting for an opportunity to get exposure into bitcoin."
Since that day the S&P 500 is up 4.8%, and bitcoin is up 21.2%. I posted this chart of bitcoin at the time, and here's the before and after.
My wife put her 25% that is allowed into that BTXFX fund last year. I personally trade IBIT in my IRA and don't own any BTCFX - mostly because I can trade IBIT without the TSP's trade limitations and early IFT deadlines.
It's volatile, but that makes it tradable.
Anyway, the trade deals will likely continue to be made but they may not all go as smoothly as the UK deal so there could be more volatility ahead, but at this point, if you have any cash on hand, you will probably welcome a little volatility to do some buying. That is if the next layer of overhead resistance on the chart does something completely different than that 2020 chart above, and rolls over.
Admin note: We discovered a bug in our premium area since we moved to the new servers and it was preventing some people from creating a new subscriber accounts. So, if you were not able to creating a premium service account recently, our apologies. It is working again.
DWCPF (S-fund) is looking very good here lately after yesterday's 1.85% gain, but it is about to come up against the next wall of resistance near 2150. There was a small gap created at yesterday's opening bell that may need to get filled before another attempt at the 2150 area, but you never know if the next trade deal will roll out and mock the charts.
ACWX (I-fund) pulled back for a third straight day so anyone who was looking for a 2 to 3 day pullback in the I-fund just got one. The question is, where it the dollar going? There are gaps below on the ACWX chart and gaps above on the UUP chart so there is an argument for at least a little more pullback in the I-fund.
The BND (F-fund) got whacked yesterday as yields moved sharply higher, but once again this remains in a range between 72 and 73.50, and there's also some support at the 50-day average. This may be range bound until something changes in the economy.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Things are happening in the tariff world and yesterday was a win for the stock market as the US and UK came to a deal on trade. There was a disturbing sell off in the final 30 minutes of trading, and lately in this volatile market, it has either been a boom or bust in that final hour of trading. Bond yields moved up pushing the F-fund lower, and the dollar moved up sharply to keep the I-fund in the red on the day. Small caps led with a near 2% gain, but the S-fund chart is nearing another wall of resistance.
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The volatility is still in the air yet it has been tough on the underinvested to find a pullback opportunity to buy in the last few weeks. As I continue to bring up, we had a similar environment back in 2020 after the covid crash where stocks moved up relentlessly with few opportunities to buy a meaningful dip. Let's see what we have now:
Here's a comparison of the 2025 S&P 500 (C-fund) and the 2020 chart coming off their lows. Some of those lines are moving averages and some are support and resistance lines, and we like to see what happens when the index hits a confluence of these lines because it can tell how much momentum the market does or does not have.
The red arrow on the 2020 chart is approximately where we are today in the comparison. If the current chart is going to follow the 2020 path, it looks like we could see some sideways to mildly positive action going forward with the occasional 2-day pullback, but rarely 3 or more down days in a row so you had to basically chase the mildest of dips to get onboard.
And here's what happened in 2020 after the chart above. It got a little more choppier but again you had to act quickly to get in on a dip.
Of course there's no guarantee that 2025 will be a mirror image of 2020, but it is a representation of investor psychology and how they act in certain situations, and it's remarkable how similarly they act under comparable situations.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield jumped higher yesterday but remains in the range that has been acceptable to the stock market. The stock market was throwing its tantrum when yields fell out of the range in early April.
The dollar (UUP) had a second straight big gain and that has been weighing on the TSP leading I-fund this week. This is another chart at an important pivot point. The inverted head and shoulders pattern did its thing - breaking to the upside, but now it is hitting the top of what could be a bear flag.
The QQQ is the Nasdaq 100 or the top tech stocks on the Nasdaq. You can see that it is also at a crucial pivot point as it hit and stalled again at the 200-day moving average. Small caps are in a similar situation as you'll see down below.
A little follow up to something I wrote in the April 15th commentary. I mentioned the TSP's bitcoin mutual fund option called BTCFX. In reference to bitcoin I said, "The chart is currently struggling below its major moving averages and remains in a downtrend, but with bitcoin down 23% off its highs, it's certainly worth considering for anybody who has been waiting for an opportunity to get exposure into bitcoin."
Since that day the S&P 500 is up 4.8%, and bitcoin is up 21.2%. I posted this chart of bitcoin at the time, and here's the before and after.
My wife put her 25% that is allowed into that BTXFX fund last year. I personally trade IBIT in my IRA and don't own any BTCFX - mostly because I can trade IBIT without the TSP's trade limitations and early IFT deadlines.
It's volatile, but that makes it tradable.
Anyway, the trade deals will likely continue to be made but they may not all go as smoothly as the UK deal so there could be more volatility ahead, but at this point, if you have any cash on hand, you will probably welcome a little volatility to do some buying. That is if the next layer of overhead resistance on the chart does something completely different than that 2020 chart above, and rolls over.
Admin note: We discovered a bug in our premium area since we moved to the new servers and it was preventing some people from creating a new subscriber accounts. So, if you were not able to creating a premium service account recently, our apologies. It is working again.
DWCPF (S-fund) is looking very good here lately after yesterday's 1.85% gain, but it is about to come up against the next wall of resistance near 2150. There was a small gap created at yesterday's opening bell that may need to get filled before another attempt at the 2150 area, but you never know if the next trade deal will roll out and mock the charts.
ACWX (I-fund) pulled back for a third straight day so anyone who was looking for a 2 to 3 day pullback in the I-fund just got one. The question is, where it the dollar going? There are gaps below on the ACWX chart and gaps above on the UUP chart so there is an argument for at least a little more pullback in the I-fund.
The BND (F-fund) got whacked yesterday as yields moved sharply higher, but once again this remains in a range between 72 and 73.50, and there's also some support at the 50-day average. This may be range bound until something changes in the economy.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
