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I talked about a Head and Shoulders pattern in previous post. Should have listened to myself, instead of trying to pick up a few coins looking for a short up move. Any whooo, if you feel like your stuck in the market. Normally after a neckline break at some point there will be a retest back up to the neckline now resistence, where you may have another opportunity to sell. Be carefull.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t


Free comments from a paid site.

http://stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
 
Well, the VIX broke above the down trending channel I drew above. Some investors use a break above 30 with market capitulation to buy in. Looks like we're just about there. Problem is for those who are in, there is no telling how much more downside will be involved.

View attachment 3103
 
Sobering article/charts posted in nnuts page:
[FONT=times new roman, times]BEAR MARKET RULES APPLY
Chart Spotlight[/FONT][FONT=times new roman, times]by Carl Swenlin[/FONT][FONT=times new roman, times]
DecisionPoint.com
[/FONT][FONT=tahoma,verdana,arial]January 18, 2008[/FONT]​

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]On January 8 the 50-EMA crossed down through the 200-EMA on the S&P 500 daily chart, generating a long-term sell signal and declaring that we are now in a bear market. This was confirmed this week when the weekly 17-EMA crossed down through the 43-EMA. Let me say that these signals are not 100% reliable, but there is a ton of additional supporting evidence, such as the decisive violation of the long-term rising trend line, and the violation of the double top neckline, seen on the chart below.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]
080118_bear-1.gif
[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]The next chart presents a long-term view, which makes it more clear how serious the situation is.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]
080118_bear-2.gif
[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]An important point is that this long-term sell signal is not so much an action signal as it is an information signal. What this means is that we need to begin interpreting charts and indicators in the context of a bear market template. For example:[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]* Oversold conditions should be viewed as extremely dangerous. Whereas in bull markets oversold lows usually present buying opportunities, in bear markets they can often resolve into more heavy selling.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]* Overbought conditions in a bear market are most likely to signal that a trading top is at hand.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]* While bear market rallies present great profit opportunities, long positions should be managed as short-term only.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]The questions remain as to how far down prices will go and how long the bear market will last? In the shorter term we have a minimum downside projection from the double top neckline of about 1160 on the S&P 500 Index. That could mark a medium-term low from which a bear market rally could rise. For the longer-term, let's look at the 4-Year Cycle chart below. As you can see, the last cycle low was in mid-2006, so the next projected low is in mid-2010. Assuming that the cycle low and bear market low will be the same, we have a long, bloody road ahead. The most obvious downside target is the support at the 2002 lows, about 750 on the S&P 500.[/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]
080118_bear-4.gif
[/FONT]

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2008/0118.html
 
I just found this thread and think the information being presented here is great. I read the TSP Talk Market Commentary almost every morning. I must tell everyone there has been more than one day that I was unsure what was being said about market trends and what the various charts indicated. I especially like the information on chart patterns that has been presented in this thread.

I will definitely add this to my morning reading. When I have questions about analyzing the various market charts, would this be the place I ask them?

Thank you for your help in advance. :D
 
Good job Vectorman. So far I like that XLF setup you propose. The longer it takes for any pattern to form, the more staying power it has. In other words, this one could be setting up for a big move to the upside.
 
Bullitt said:
Good job Vectorman. So far I like that XLF setup you propose. The longer it takes for any pattern to form, the more staying power it has. In other words, this one could be setting up for a big move to the upside.
Click to expand...

Thanks Bullitt. Never stop learning. Here's an observation for those in the F fund. Be careful. MACD is showing a bearish crossover. H&S may be a stretch, but something to watch.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_average_conve

View attachment 3213

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t
 
Last edited:
vectorman said:
XLF Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern still looking good, after a slight adjustment with the head. Cannot predict future, pattern may still break down, but so far looking good.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=142412&postcount=80
View attachment 3211
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b
Click to expand...
Hi Vectorman,
Very interesting last couple posts, that I just read/catching up on. This last one AGG - if it pans out - does this suggest stock/equities may run up??

-Or could it, (the suggested AGG-inverted head/shoulders), be related to bond insurers going under (therefore little to do with stocks/equity-funds)?
VR
PS Thanks for the link way back to... http://stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm Its now one of my Favorites -and Tuesday's (provided) suggests Institutional selliing is waning!). This might be some reinforcement/provide some confirmation! I expect next week will tell! :)
Very nice thread!
 
Vectorman,

Any thoughts on the possible Double Top setup in the VIX on a weekly chart? Possible support line at about 18?
 
Any Elliott Wave Theory afficianados? This might help guide us -where we are - whwere we might be headed!! Any further clarification, explanation or speculation would be deeply appreciated?? :o
View attachment 3242
"After a five year bull market, we're still getting accustomed to the new bear market. After years of looking for five waves up and three waves down. We now have to look for three waves up and down. Bear markets are all correctional. As compared to bull markets that impulse during uptrends, and are only correctional during downtrends. There are no five wave bear markets. Our longer term projections made in 2000 are still on course. 1932 - 2000 completed the Supercycle with a blowoff top, and the bear market from 2000 - 2002 corrected it all. Then in October 2002 a new Supercycle began, and the first bull market was naturally Cycle wave I. The market has just started Cycle wave II, which should unfold for five years. The first leg down should bottom this year around SPX 1100, ending Primary wave A. Then a strong rally up into 2009 to end Primary wave B. This is to be followed by a three year Primary wave C to retest the 2008 lows. Currently the market appears to have ended the first abc down, Major wave A, of Primary wave A. The market is now retracing part of that entire decline (SPX 1576-1270) in another abc structure, Major wave B. After this concludes, another abc down to the SPX 1100 level should follow, ending Major wave C and Primary wave A. This should be the low for the year! Then it would be acceptable to get bullish into 2009. It will not be a bonfide bull market, but many will call it that. For now, stay defensive and you may want to hedge or lighten up during this rally."
(This was posted after last Friday -on the weekend, at... http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/ )
 
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