Chart Analysis

[Birchtree]

Sorry, that's the wrong chart - but thanks just the same.

 

[vectorman]

The next few days of news ( PPI, CPI..) will be very important in determining the trend direction of the VIX. I wonder if the Big Boys will still be upset with Ben. With the low volume rally, if the market can't pull itself up or starts a downtrend, many TA's will be eyeing a possible Head and Shoulders pattern. But there looks to be some upside room, and it may take a while before any right shoulder top forms looking at the NASDAQ. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=136663&postcount=43

View attachment 2806

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t

 

[Wolverine]

No, I'm not saying that. But the market is what it is. No matter how much I dreamed or said the market will come back up in 2001 and 2002, the charts clearly indicated ( using MA, RSI, MACD, etc...) problems in the market. Depending on your timeframe, if you dollar cost avg like Birchtree, it doesn't matter what the market does because it will eventually go up. But time is you biggest obstacle. Just an added note...clester and I are great buds, I wasn't taking a shot at him. We talk about this stuff all the time.

Ok thanks with clearing that up. It is interesting with all that though.

No problem with Clester either. LOL Had not even concerened myself with those types of things you are getting at.

Anyhoo, thanks for all the chart info and all. Good stuff.

 

[vectorman]

Custer's last stand? Its all about the banks. Big support that needs to hold. MACD, STO and RSI showing more down side risk unless investors step in to bottom fish. VIX still has a big gap to fill.

View attachment 2816


http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qu...tes/update.asp&fontsize=&LaunchedWindow=FALSE

 

[vectorman]

5 yr chart of BKX. Strong higher lows needs to be established, followed by higher highs.

View attachment 2817


Link from a paid site with free comments.
http://stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[vectorman]

It's all about the banks.

View attachment 2847

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=BKX

 

[vectorman]

The VIX gapped down and is now sitting at support. But there may be room to move down if everyone gets into the Christmas mood. I'm still concerned about the BKX and SOXX index, not much buying there today. DCB?

View attachment 2853

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=BKX
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SOXX

 

[Birchtree]

Any time the VIX moves below the 89 day SMA Bollinger band, we've had some nice bull moves.

 

[vectorman]

Bank of America recommended a sell of some chip stocks yesterday. Near bottom? Big Boys sold along time ago. Why recommend selling now? Better buying price.

View attachment 2976

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={53762D65-C34D-4298-B7DE-A21262349C57}

 

[Bullitt]

Why recommend selling now?

Brokers are incredible aren't they? Sell recs mean it's time for the dumb money to sell so the smart money can load up without causing a drastic uptick. Of course, a buy reccomendation is just the opposite.

 

[vectorman]

SPX Dead Cat Bounce? I don't know. SPX broke below an uptrend support line and is today back testing to get back above it. The MACD had a bearish cross-over and showing a slight down trend. The RSI slipped below its uptrend and is now back testing to get back above it. 50 day MA is below the 200 day MA. There is still a gap that may or may not get filled. I will add, that all this is on light volume, so there really isn't any fear in the market.

View attachment 2977

 

[vectorman]

PANIC? Banking Index trying to find good support.:blink: Look at the length of fall in 1998, we're about to match that. Great buying opportunity. Need some capitulation, VIX still shows investors haven't given up yet.

10 year BKX chart

View attachment 2989

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=BKX

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX

 

[lochaven]

I really need to start learning how to read these and learn what they mean..... thanks.

 

[nnuut]

I really need to start learning how to read these and learn what they mean..... thanks.

Try this lochaven:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

 

[clester]

Looks like the vix has a couple of lower gaps to fill.

 

[clester]

Looks like the vix has a couple of lower gaps to fill.

Looks like one gap filled. We still have one below 22 to around 21 to fill.

 

[vectorman]

The Banking Index needs to find some support. It's about to match the correction it had in 1998. The saying is " The market is always right ". The BKX downtrend started right before the first big drop in China, and has been falling ever since. China still has not had the big crash that some had been calling for. If China were to have a crash anytime soon, it might be said the BKX index is close to factoring it in. Maybe.

View attachment 3018

 

[Birchtree]

Look at that move from 1995 to the middle of 1998 - might that happen again as the Fed continues to lower rates? We could also see a nice V recovery in the financials once the dust finally settles. I've been buying the industry this week with individual stocks looking for good dividend income for reinvestment purposes.

 

[vectorman]

IMO the market is setting up for a move higher soon. The VIX has filled a gap from Nov 28th, and bounce back from upper resistence. There is a 'gap up' from Dec 28th that may get filled soon. The STO is heading down, and the RSI may cross below 50. All this means the market going higher at least short term.

View attachment 3045

 

[vectorman]

Finally looks like the Banking Index is about to reverse trend. Using the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, XLF, (AMEX) you can see a possible Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern forming. I'm showing the XLF index because it also shows what the volume has been doing. I'll show the BKX index in the next post.

View attachment 3047

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=XLF

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b