Chart Analysis

[vectorman]

Same pattern using the SPX chart.

View attachment 2447

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SP500

 

[vectorman]

Talking heads on CNBC are confused why financials reversed. The BKX index found support at 90, which probably was the target the Big Boys were waiting for. Look above at post #18. If 90 doesn't hold then markets will be in big trouble. 90 gives us a good support to test, so the market may look at this as a positive and go up from here, especially if the neckline support I talked about above on the DJIA and SPX hold. If these supports end up failing, then the markets may be telling us there is big trouble ahead. Be careful listening to the noise on the TV. If you are a timer, use your indicators and stops.

View attachment 2448

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=BKX

This site spoke about the BKX index also this morning on their free link.

http://stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

 

[vectorman]

DJTA found some support today too. If oil starts dropping then it may hold.

View attachment 2449

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=DJTA

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t

 

[vectorman]

Talking Heads on 'Fast Money' on CNBC saying "stay out of the market", " don't buy ", " wait". " Look for markets to go lower".

I don't know? Could be the market about to take off with Big Boys buying. They like retail investers to buy last at higher prices. Retail investors sell at the bottoms and buy at the tops.

The SOXX index even made a nice kangaroo tail today. In the past the SOXX usually has a good run up in November leading into December. If this is close to a bottom, watch to see if support holds and it takes off. Tom says TSP Sentiment Survey on a buy again. Watch the volume and moving avgs in the indexes tomorrow and next week. Might be a good time to start thinking about falling alittle into the funds for at least a short play. Too many people where I work are sitting in the G fund. SPX...STO, RSI and MACD close to a buy. Watch the VIX for a downtrend.


View attachment 2450

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SOXX

VIX http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX

 

[RPM]

350Z and Vector:

I just started to look at the Weekly chart of the indexes, is there anything in the SLOW STO as a signal to buy/sell, e.g. for the S&P500? especially if you only want to do so once in a few weeks? I tried to set up a spreadsheet to look at historical trends, but it's beyond me!!!

Appreciate your analysis! TIA

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I like slow stochs on a daily basis. If it falls down out of 80 (out of overbought), it tends to continue lower. Likewise if it breaks out up over 20, (out of oversold), it tends to continue higher. 'Whats oversold/overbought, can stay oversold/overbought' is an old adage to keep in mind. I haven't backtested stochastics on weekly charts, but I would guess you would get 'relative' results. Slow Stochs seem to give you a feel for 2 day momentum, while fast stochs give you one day momentum, which is too fast for TSP deadline.

 

[350zCommTech]

350Z and Vector:

I just started to look at the Weekly chart of the indexes, is there anything in the SLOW STO as a signal to buy/sell, e.g. for the S&P500? especially if you only want to do so once in a few weeks? I tried to set up a spreadsheet to look at historical trends, but it's beyond me!!!

Appreciate your analysis! TIA

Sorry, I don't use it. I use a lot of different indicators but not that one.

 

[Bullitt]

RPM,

Slow Sto currently stands at 50 on the Weekly Chart. Anything between 20 and 80 is considered normal price movement, therefore not on a buy using Slow Sto indicator today. Check out the sell signal the weekly Slow gave in mid October, right around the 1525 level.

Daily Stochastics moved below 20 again today, but take a look at that negative divergence from the last move below 20 level on Oct. 22. From Oscillator standpoint, not good.

If you're looking to do minimal IFT's, the Slow Sto with another indicator would work well on a weekly chart. That way it should filter out the day to day gyrations. Perhaps weekly stochostic with the TSPTalk Sentiment Survey would compliment eachother.

 

[Oldcoin]

350Z and Vector:

I just started to look at the Weekly chart of the indexes, is there anything in the SLOW STO as a signal to buy/sell, e.g. for the S&P500? especially if you only want to do so once in a few weeks? I tried to set up a spreadsheet to look at historical trends, but it's beyond me!!!

Appreciate your analysis! TIA

RPM, hope you don’t mind my sticking my nose into this; I’ve been using a daily chart with MACD and RSI with the Slow STO as an indicator. I’ve found that it’s a little late into the market and very early getting you out. If you couple your tech indicators with a good knowledge of the market you can enhance your use of the indicator. It’s not an end-all but a good tool. BTW it has worked well with the S and I funds, I just keep getting clobbered by that FV thing they throw at us.

Good luck.

 

[RPM]

RPM, hope you don’t mind my sticking my nose into this; I’ve been using a daily chart with MACD and RSI with the Slow STO as an indicator. I’ve found that it’s a little late into the market and very early getting you out. If you couple your tech indicators with a good knowledge of the market you can enhance your use of the indicator. It’s not an end-all but a good tool. BTW it has worked well with the S and I funds, I just keep getting clobbered by that FV thing they throw at us.

Good luck.

Thank you. I looked at the daily chart, and it's too much whipsaw for me. So when I looked at the weekly chart, it seems to be a lot more stable, you only get in/out of the market once a few weeks. You don't get all the gains, and don't miss all the loss, but you still might be able to do better than the market. Appreciate any input. TIA.

 

[vectorman]

VIX is still in an up trend. I wonder if 25 will hold. Sets up for a big move tomorrow, unknown if it will be positive or negative. Sentiment is still bullish on a relief rally. CNBC big on declaring a bottom last night, looking to get retail investors back in the game and away from the exits. Volume still not much on the Dow yet.

View attachment 2521

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=DJIA

 

[RPM]

I plotted SPY on Yahoo Finance and Stockcharts today, with SLO STO at the bottom of both, weekly plot. For the weekly charts on Yahoo, you need to go to 3 yrs to get to weekly (move the historical chart time frame to the left until you see "Week of ..." at the top chart. I am seeing different values for %K and %D for this week from the 2 charts, and wonder whether anyone might have any explanation for it. TIA.

 

[Show-me]

It could be that the default parameters are different. Not every chartist use the same number of day for the parameters. It can be manipulated to make the indicator more volatile or to smooth out the volatility. The default for stockcharts is 14,3.

 

[RPM]

It could be that the default parameters are different. Not every chartist use the same number of day for the parameters. It can be manipulated to make the indicator more volatile or to smooth out the volatility. The default for stockcharts is 14,3.

Show-me:

Thank you. No, I plot both of them at 14,3...very weird...

From Yahoo: http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#cha...ine;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

From Stockcharts: (as pdf, the stockchart is too big, and I don't know how to resize it).

TIA

 

[Show-me]

Yes, that is a enormous difference and I don't have a answer.

 

[vectorman]

In the last ten years the SPX was only downtrending once through the Thanksgiving Holidays, in 2000. There's alot of pressure on Dow 13000 right now, we just need to break through it and really shake out the market.

View attachment 2605

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SP500

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=DJIA

 

[vectorman]

VIX shows a big move shaping up, this afternoon or for sure tomorrow. The Fed made the difference in Sept. If there is not another leg down in the market, then this will be a good temp bottom.

View attachment 2606

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX

 

[vectorman]

Bottom fishing going on with the Banking index. Setting up for a big move, which might explain the move we will see in the VIX. If 90 doesn't hold look for more downward pressure on the SPX.

View attachment 2607

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX

 

[vectorman]

VIX is still in a triangle pattern. It broke out to the up-side yesterday and today is backtesting the uptrend support line. It's still in an uptrend. At the close, lets see if buyers will keep coming in or if there will be profit taking (sell strength, in a bear market). The MACD on the VIX had a bearish cross over, if it holds the VIX will trend down and the market will keep working its way up. Up or down the VIX is setting up for another breakout soon.

View attachment 2696

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX

 

[vectorman]

Here's a five day 15 minute chart of the VIX. If there isn't a big sell off this afternoon, that may mean that buyers feel the market is at or near a bottom, and are less fearful of what may happen while the market is close tonight. They may see the five year bull channel holding up a while longer. But if there is profit taking...:blink:.....Risk vs reward.

View attachment 2698