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It's all about the Banks. I find it interesting looking at the BKX chart, that there isn't more fear in the minds of investors. It seems the SPX and Dow Charts are lagging compared to what the BKX is telling us. In the big sell off in 1998 and during the Bear market from 2000 to 2003 the VIX hit greater than 40 several times. Investors now seem somewhat fearful, but very complacent. If investors in the BKX and XLF finally capitulate, we may see a real ripple effect across many markets. There is alot of debating on whether we're in a bear market or correction. I don't know. But the trend is your friend. If we are really in a Bear market then the next leg down for timers ( not Birchtree followers) will be very painful.

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BKX Chart. If this was a chart of a company, one would have to wonder about the true condition of the company. Its now sitting on a 11 year support. Will it hold? Perhaps this is the real bottom.:confused: But what will happen if it breaks 60. :worried: Then it will be a great buying opportunity on capitulation.:laugh:


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We may or may not get a big sell off real soon. But the question is, how much of a snap back can we expect short term from those on the sidelines jumping in to try and take advantaged of a big sell off? Most of the Talking Heads Thursday and Friday were telling viewers that the markets will continue to sell off next week. :blink: For sure, those who are in cash will have a great opportunity to buy stocks at lower prices, but will they have the boldness to pull the trigger at the right time?

NASDAQ chart

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The majority are now waiting for the VIX to hit 30 to buy in. Increase in volatility with big swings can also work toward the positive. Big down days followed by big up days, or the other way around. Nasty whipsaws also increase. Many are ready to buy in now, but are waiting for several more down swings to jump in the market; sounds like easy money. :D The next month will be interesting.

Recent VIX chart

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