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ATCJeff said:
It's amazing that I heard a talking head calling 1200 this fall. That looks just about the top of the downward channel.
Click to expand...

The market could go higher. But if the US has another job less recovery, combined with higher taxes to pay for all the government spending ( war, health care, social security..etc),and climbing interest rates, I don't see how the Dow could get back up to its previous high anytime soon. Unless the government changes its behavior, America is set up for some more huge problems, IMO. :worried:
 
vectorman said:
The market could go higher. But if the US has another job less recovery, combined with higher taxes to pay for all the government spending ( war, health care, social security..etc),and climbing interest rates, I don't see how the Dow could get back up to its previous high anytime soon. Unless the government changes its behavior, America is set up for some more huge problems, IMO. :worried:
Click to expand...

Great charts, thanks for the perspectives :)
 
Something else to watch for. For those in the correction camp.

SPX Chart

View attachment 6923

" the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness: a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. Sometimes more than one low point can be used to form the neckline."

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t


" The head and shoulders pattern is one of the most common reversal formations. It is important to remember that it occurs after an uptrend and usually marks a major trend reversal when complete. While it is preferable that the left and right shoulders be symmetrical, it is not an absolute requirement. They can be different widths as well as different heights. Identification of neckline support and volume confirmation on the break can be the most critical factors. The support break indicates a new willingness to sell at lower prices. Lower prices combined with an increase in volume indicate an increase in supply. The combination can be lethal, and sometimes, there is no second chance return to the support break. Measuring the expected length of the decline after the breakout can be helpful, but don't count on it for your ultimate target. As the pattern unfolds over time, other aspects of the technical picture are likely to take precedence. "
 
Something else I've been watching. Sure hope I wrong. Below is a chart of the Dow. In 1982 you can see from the 10 yr Treasury chart I posted below how interest rates started dropping and the market really took off. But if the US does have an inflation problem, what will be the response to the market when rates go back up? Short term may be positive, but for how long?

Dow Chart dated 7-0ct-08, with some notes I just added.

View attachment 6924

Sorry for the type o note should have said 'rising' rates
 
Last edited:
Dow Chart as of 7-Oct-09 Depending how you look at it, we could be near the near top of the range and soon start back down,
or like from 1965 to 1982 go sideways as interest rates went up.

View attachment 6925
 
Last edited:
vectorman said:
Dow Chart as of 7-Oct-09 Depending how you look at it, we could be near the near top of the range and soon start back down,
or like from 1965 to 1982 go sideways as interest rates went up.
Click to expand...
Very interesting v-man. On this chart, I'm intrigued by the volume. Any ideas/read on the volume (post #185 below)?
 
Does anyone have a link either to a post here or elsewhere on the M A pattern? I'm interested in where the peak of the A usually ends (a triple top?) and what an M A pattern foretells.

Thanks.
 
He speaks. For those who don't know- pay attention to V-man. He always seems to post these charts at key inflection points.
 
Vectorman to the white courtesy phone. Calling Vectorman to the white courtesy phone, please. Vectorman.
 
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