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Chart Analysis
- Thread starter Show-me
- Start date
Show-me
Well-known member
Still not feeling it, today was a perfect seasonal play coming off of the holidays. Still need to confirm the move up and above the 200 SMA and other trend lines. We are at a major point here. IMO we will break hard one way or the other :blink: because of the 200 SMA being tested numerous time. It won't give it up but if it does be ready. The dollar is tied to it all, a break of the 20 dma will help equities across the board, C, S and I. If it holds support we could see a drive down.
At the very least this is going to be fun to watch and we have solar flare coming and another kind of light show tonight.
S&P touched the upper Bollinger Band and retreated.
S fund shows nothing remarkable but it could break out.
USD continues to respect the 20 day moving average.
German DAX has violated the upper Bollinger Band and that will be corrected.
United Kingdom has seriously violated the upper Bollinger Band and broke through the 200 SMA. The Bollinger will get corrected and we need conformation on the 200 SMA.
At the very least this is going to be fun to watch and we have solar flare coming and another kind of light show tonight.
S&P touched the upper Bollinger Band and retreated.
S fund shows nothing remarkable but it could break out.
USD continues to respect the 20 day moving average.
German DAX has violated the upper Bollinger Band and that will be corrected.
United Kingdom has seriously violated the upper Bollinger Band and broke through the 200 SMA. The Bollinger will get corrected and we need conformation on the 200 SMA.
Show-me
Well-known member
NOT!
Show-me
Well-known member
You must respect the bollinger bands!!!
USD rallies because...................the EURO SUCKS more than the dollar. :nuts: This could screw it up for eqities.
A hanging cross just like last October. We need a higher high.
S fund............nada.
You must respect the bollinger bands!!!
You must respect the bollinger bands!!!
USD rallies because...................the EURO SUCKS more than the dollar. :nuts: This could screw it up for eqities.
A hanging cross just like last October. We need a higher high.
S fund............nada.
You must respect the bollinger bands!!!
You must respect the bollinger bands!!!
Sensei
Well-known member
Show-Me -
I'm digging the charts. Thanks! I don't usually take the time to look at the DAX, W4500, USD, etc. I probably should. I pretty much focus on the S&P. What I see there that has me longer-term bullish is that we've closed above the 200 day SMA for 6 of the last 7 trading sessions. From October through now, the 200 SMA has been resistance - punch through it once, then back down the next day. Now I see it setting up as support. That's what I'm hoping anyway. Now that I've written it, look out below. Always my luck.
:blink:
I'm digging the charts. Thanks! I don't usually take the time to look at the DAX, W4500, USD, etc. I probably should. I pretty much focus on the S&P. What I see there that has me longer-term bullish is that we've closed above the 200 day SMA for 6 of the last 7 trading sessions. From October through now, the 200 SMA has been resistance - punch through it once, then back down the next day. Now I see it setting up as support. That's what I'm hoping anyway. Now that I've written it, look out below. Always my luck.
:blink:
Show-me
Well-known member
I'm feeling the love! The $INDU and $TRAN are showing some love too, they are above the 200 sma and making higher highs. We got a partial conformation on the $SPX but I would like to see 1284.59 for a close before I dive all in. $EMW is showing a little love too but I would like to see it make a run through the 200 sma and its Oct. closing high. The USD showed serous strength today, or was that the EURO showed serious weakness? They got problems. :blink:
Show-me
Well-known member
Something is going to POP! UUP and $USD both violated the upper bollinger band. Cool, I would like to see the dollar fall allowing equities to rally. FTSE has had a short consolidation without violating the 200 sma and that could allow it to push high especially if it is in tandem with a pull back on the dollar. DAX is not showing much conviction the last three days. Germany is pi$$ed because they realized they have a first class ticket on the Titanic. LOL :laugh:
vectorman
Active member
vectorman
Active member
Another reason why 'Buy and Hold' sometimes does work the way one would hope. Had you bought into the NIKKEI 225 back in 1984 and added to your position without taking anything off the table, your rate of return after all this time is negative. Hopefully this will not be the future chart of the DJIA.
World Charts
World Charts
twodaystocks
Member
C fund Weekly chart on stockcharts.com.
Using the 5 EMA as a simple buy/sell indicator seems to be working very well.
Using the 5 EMA as a simple buy/sell indicator seems to be working very well.
JTH
Well-known member
Adding to this
Although I tend to trade in the short-term, I do have concerns over 2013's outlook. On the monthly chart you may notice that each of the consectitive upswings are shorter in both duration & price...
View attachment 21177
Although I tend to trade in the short-term, I do have concerns over 2013's outlook. On the monthly chart you may notice that each of the consectitive upswings are shorter in both duration & price...
View attachment 21177
sniper
Active member
next week i think is gonna go green. not as optimistic for the longer term though, then again if the weekly chart shows me something different my opinion can change.
it's easy to get faked out from daily fluctuations but the weekly chart rarely ever is fooled (weeklies are saying more downside, but possible bounce first)
it's easy to get faked out from daily fluctuations but the weekly chart rarely ever is fooled (weeklies are saying more downside, but possible bounce first)
Last edited:
JTH
Well-known member
I find that overlaying price over time is very difficult, lots of folks think they can do it, but the majority of the time we are wrong. I'll estimate that we won't revisit the 2012 highs this year because that would imply a 10% climb over the next 6 weeks. If I were wrong and November were to close just under flat, then I could entertain a 6% December, that would take us to a 2012 high of 1486.66. At this point I'd estimate an horific January/Febuary with a >8% decline taking us back to 1370. That's the upside projection.
For the downside, I show the 1266 swing low from Jun 2012 to be the key pivot of which a breakdown below would lead to a test of 1175. If 1175 fails, that indicates a test of 1075 to 975. I realize these are bleak projections, the bottom line (and what we do know) is that momentum is wanning, what happens after that is anyone's guess.
View attachment 21181
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