Carnac's Corner

[JOVARN]

Is anyone making any Hurricane preparations for the TSP. Palm Beach Post headline this am. Oil moves up as storm approaches?
It must have been a slow news day as the storm is still a week away

 

[Spaf]

Since there is a strong lack of bull manure appreciation on this thread - how about a little bulltinkie to spread around. Snort.

Hey Birch, not too loud now. None of that Snort stuff. He calls it a corner but really it's a den. Tech lets me visit ever so often in his market.

 

[ebbnflow]

Carnac, when's the G penny due?

 

[nnuut]

Hee, Hee did someone hurt Tech's fealings the other day? Guess they shouldn't have? Comon CARNAC what's the skinny on the penny? You know I can't get it right.

 

[The_Technician]

Well, it didn't make the numbers by the 8th as I expected (but that doesn't mean it won't later on), but the signal is there, today-no rate increase and the market jitters.....this means that the market has read the writing on the wall ......inflation has hit the economy hard enough that consumers have cut spending styming the economy (therefore the interest rate increase stops. Consumer spending on products other than essentials have dropped, thus they have affected manufacturing output/stock inventories, productivity drops off-signifiying harder times ahead, higher labor costs and energy costs are also up further closing the circle) this combination cut corporate profits,.....and that is what the market is seeing today....poor economics.....basically, consumers are spent out.....

I wouldn't be surprised if we see another rate hike or two later on....

BTW, this new personnel system the govt is going too.....if you work for the govt, look forward to losing more spending power to the economy and the average Joe .....

 

[nnuut]

Tech, nice to see you back! Where you been on vacation?

 

[The_Technician]

Tech, nice to see you back! Where you been on vacation?

U can say that....looks like I timed it better this a time....while waiting for the market to drop is a better time to take off......that was another one of those Fridays again today ehhhh.........

 

[nnuut]

It's nnuuts! I'm down about 2% from where I was 3 weeks ago. Can't win them all I guess? I will do better I'm sure, it will probably be 4% if I don't take my own advise and not Hang-In-There too long! Just bad timing, sometimes you get out of sync, you know what I mean?

 

[The_Technician]

Well, it didn't make the numbers by the 8th as I expected (but that doesn't mean it won't later on), but the signal is there, today-no rate increase and the market jitters.....this means that the market has read the writing on the wall ......inflation has hit the economy hard enough that consumers have cut spending styming the economy (therefore the interest rate increase stops. Consumer spending on products other than essentials have dropped, thus they have affected manufacturing output/stock inventories, productivity drops off-signifiying harder times ahead, higher labor costs and energy costs are also up further closing the circle) this combination cut corporate profits,.....and that is what the market is seeing today....poor economics.....basically, consumers are spent out.....

I wouldn't be surprised if we see another rate hike or two later on....
..

Its getting later on....

 

[The_Technician]

Markets seem to be topping out.....last week was truely beneficial and spread profits all week long, something I didn't expect....We should be seeing some sort of correction for the near term....its just a matter of when to get back in....at the moment the risks are just too high to jump in....

Most of those posts I posted in the Market talk thread today seem to point to a recession coming....some even mention around Oct like in 2000.....

Noticed the dollar getting stronger again this morning.....need more of that over the next couple of weeks.....then the I fund will again loook enticing....

Bernanke speaks this Friday....anytime he says something it seems it goes bad for investors....but he just came into the FED at the wrong time.....

I'm sitting in G, waiting for F to take another break, and then on to some other moves...

 

[The_Technician]

Markets seem to be topping out.....last week was truely beneficial and spread profits all week long, something I didn't expect....We should be seeing some sort of correction for the near term....its just a matter of when to get back in....at the moment the risks are just too high to jump in....

Most of those posts I posted in the Market talk thread today seem to point to a recession coming....some even mention around Oct like in 2000.....

Noticed the dollar getting stronger again this morning.....need more of that over the next couple of weeks.....then the I fund will again loook enticing....

Bernanke speaks this Friday....anytime he says something it seems it goes bad for investors....but he just came into the FED at the wrong time.....

I'm sitting in G, waiting for F to take another break, and then on to some other moves...

"Crystal Ball" said to make that move to F yesterday.....looks like with the storm coming on and the Iranians still learning how to read the writing on the wall its the place to be.......interest rate inversion is getting worse, just makes sense to take advantage of it.....

And then it sometimes tells ya to go international.....the ball is brave....

Carnac

 

[The_Technician]

"Crystal Ball" said to make that move to F yesterday.....looks like with the storm coming on and the Iranians still learning how to read the writing on the wall its the place to be.......interest rate inversion is getting worse, just makes sense to take advantage of it.....

And then it sometimes tells ya to go international.....the ball is brave....

Carnac

Markets have extended their run again.....Crystal Ball is saying look out in the next week or so.....

 

[The_Technician]

Fact,

If you start with say $60,000 and you can make 4% every month, what do you have in say 1 year, $98,000, 2 years.....$158,0000, 3 years.....$253,000, 4 years......$405,000, 5 years....$649,000, 6 years.....just over $1,039,000,000.

Now can you make that 4% a month.....

 

[Show-me]

Fact,

If you start with say $60,000 and you can make 4% every month, what do you have in say 1 year, $98,000, 2 years.....$158,0000, 3 years.....$253,000, 4 years......$405,000, 5 years....$649,000, 6 years.....just over $1,039,000,000.

Now can you make that 4% a month.....

Sharing, found this link. Cool stuff.

 

[tsptalk]

Now can you make that 4% a month.....

Unfortunately not in TSP. But with an IRA, maybe.

I watch RevShark's personal portfolio on his website and he is up about 32% for the year (It was over 50% in May before the pullback), but the only way to get that type of return is with individual stocks, and probably some margin and shorting so you can make money on pullbacks as well.

 

[TiCKed]

Unfortunately not in TSP. But with an IRA, maybe.

I watch RevShark's personal portfolio on his website and he is up about 32% for the year (It was over 50% in May before the pullback), but the only way to get that type of return is with individual stocks, and probably some margin and shorting so you can make money on pullbacks as well.

....and don't forget a lot of knowledge and hard work! I have a feeling that I could easily lose 4% per month.

 

[The_Technician]

Monthly performance

Since its not mentioned, due to the board not accepting my validated performance from a moderator on the board, and it is something maybe you would like to know, the unofficial return for my last three months is 8.45%.....

This is something to contemplate seeing that I missed out on two opportunities of fine gains due to being on vacation in June/July timeframe (about 5 or so % lost by not being thar') but thats the past...

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to be a prude, but it is something not mentioned at the moment.....This trend is just starting to show up and will continue further on into the future......

Carnac

 

[The_Technician]

A divine opportunity has come our way today. Some took advantage of it. Not really sure of the consequences of getting in the market today seeing all the market news and all:blink: , but I'm ready for any which a way move.....the Crystal Ball says its a fair to good opportunity.....even if it pans out just for a few days or more...

Ain't that Gilligan something else on that I fund....the boy must have gone down to the local market and bought a Magic wand!!!!:cheesy:

 

[The_Technician]

The move in the market of yesterday was short term to say the least....market looks to be in a down stroke of late and to stay in over the weekend wouldn't be smart....always remember 9/11:worried:

 

[Fivetears]

Sometimes... you have to walk strait up to it, smile... and take a real hard swing. God bless all those who paid the ultimate price, and those who have yet to fall... as a result. My money stands in the new light of 9-11; the International community lives on. 100% I Fund.

The move in the market of yesterday was short term to say the least....market looks to be in a down stroke of late and to stay in over the weekend wouldn't be smart....always remember 9/11:worried: