burros-ark update: very interesting action, for the 2nd week in a row not a single arker has bought in. last week everybody stood pat, but this week some heavies doubt the direction of the market and lightened their load, that is significant. of course plenty of us have already been sitting this one out, waiting for doomsday, why is it always so slow? a couple have just enough hope to keep their toes in the stream. and a few brave souls trundle blindly along full of nothing but faith. i think they may dumb as a bag of hammers in this case, but what do i know, the returns don't lie.
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD]burros-ark
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]4.91%
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]*
[/TD]
[TD]doom
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]resident
[/TD]
[TD]vira
[/TD]
[TD]ytd%
[/TD]
[TD]weight
[/TD]
[TD]direction
[/TD]
[TD]comment
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]mouse
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]2.76%
[/TD]
[TD]35
[/TD]
[TD]*
[/TD]
[TD]hope
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]turtle
[/TD]
[TD]3
[/TD]
[TD]1.77%
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]<
[/TD]
[TD]doubt
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]elephant
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]7.16%
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]*
[/TD]
[TD]faith
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]penguin
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]2.17%
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]*
[/TD]
[TD]doom
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]lion
[/TD]
[TD]3
[/TD]
[TD]4.17%
[/TD]
[TD]68
[/TD]
[TD]<
[/TD]
[TD]doubt
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]donkey
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]2.70%
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]*
[/TD]
[TD]doom
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]racoon
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]6.92%
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]*
[/TD]
[TD]faith
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]kangaroo
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]4.58%
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]*
[/TD]
[TD]faith
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]cougar
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]6.40%
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]*
[/TD]
[TD]faith
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]wolf
[/TD]
[TD]2
[/TD]
[TD]4.74%
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]<
[/TD]
[TD]doubt
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]owl
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]4.72%
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]*
[/TD]
[TD]doom
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]squirrel
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]1.87%
[/TD]
[TD]60
[/TD]
[TD]*
[/TD]
[TD]hope
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]hawk
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]7.58%
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]*
[/TD]
[TD]doom
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]el vira
[/TD]
[TD]56
[/TD]
[TD]- 65
[/TD]
[TD]= -9
[/TD]
[TD]/ 65
[/TD]
[TD]= -14%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]exposure
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]573
[/TD]
[TD]/ 1,300
[/TD]
[TD]= 43%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
signal: sell. the system has been on a hold from a prior sell signal for the last few weeks, but this is a strong new confirmation. el vira is at -14% vs. 3% last week, a major flip. although close to the pessimistic level that would trigger a contrarian buy, this is not it. this is a prolonged and fundemental pessimism. this bear could have teeth, no sense poking it just to see if it will get up, the risk does not justify the potential reward. arkers are net long only 43%, how dreary, doom and gloom.
it is going to take a pretty serious shakeout i think before the ark sentiment sees a bargain and pushes the buy button. donkey on the other hand is waiting for that quick chance to catch a falling knife.