Bull Pen - Fall 2006

[sugarandspice]

Oh, thanks for the advice about sittin around. I'll keep doing that and collecting my small %.

 

[sugarandspice]

Sugar,

But the predominate wisdom says that if you are close to retirement you should pull in your horns and retreat to the lilly pad - well I'm going to tell you that is the wrong strategy if you want to use your resources to multiply your gains - just educate yourself first and that is the mission. Snort

For some of us this is the only resource we have. We aren't all loaded like you and can buy massive amounts of stocks to hold or sell or DCA at a moments notice because we have so much cash laying around and available to do it.

Run over to the I fund thread Birch. More badly spelled words. Edumacate us.

 

[sugarandspice]

Sugar,

These retirement funds because of Uncles fiduciary responsibility are not very volatile and it becomes difficult to pistool shoot them unless one has substantial assets.

What kind of stock do you consider volatile then? I dont see you as getting involved with anything volatile investing wise and you have no history of doing or speaking of such things.

Quick Birch, get over to the new members area thread. There's an APB out on the misuse of a dangling participle. Show'em the how it's done.

 

[Birchtree]

Sugar(BEAR)?

Not only does one collect wisdom with age but with the right assortments of risk in life you to can build a portfolio. I started with a measely $1000.00 in 1969 once I returned from Vietnam and saved a few dollars that I could risk. It has been all trial and error and self taught. Nothing came easy - only now can I afford to bleed some and stay alive. I actually played on paper for a solid year before I got my feet wet and had a win first time out the door. Reinvested that profit and promptly lost it all and got out with only my original seed money left. But did I quit - chit I was after more glory. I got a lifetime of mistakes and to this day I love a good body blow - dropped $138,000 in 05 and was pleased I didn't have to beg the wife for redemption. Did the same thing this year - dropped over $120,000 and came right back to play in both accounts that I'm married to. So the moral of this story is that it's not always necessary to step out of the way of on coming traffic - some times getting run over can be refreshing. The important thing to remember when you are laid out in the middle of the road is that dividends are being reinvested at lower prices and the same goes for Q2week DCA.

 

[sugarandspice]

Sugar(BEAR)?

....So the moral of this story is that it's not always necessary to step out of the way of on coming traffic - some times getting run over can be refreshing.

Ridiculous statement Mr. Harvey. Even with the rest of the story.

Oh and by the way, 3 alarmer going off in the Real Estate thread. Punctuation marks not being properly placed. Lead us to the promised land Birch.

 

[Griffin]

Please see post #106 on this thread. I don't want to take heat from Wheels for being repetitious. That's only one example - but I have many with the same story. I just spent $98,000 a few weeks ago to DCA on the upside.

OK, so you took some long positions (I call 5+ years: long) in a stock, I still don't understand how this was a response to the issue at hand. As a reminder, here's where we started on post #95 and #96. The debate is about providing macro level theory to short term strategies, in case you forgot.

Birch,

I said: short term comment



You said: long term comment



You tracking now? or is this a short term comment....if so please explain.

 

[Birchtree]

The Harvey reference is to Harvey Kietel from Pulp Fiction. He was the clean up man that was always called.

 

[Birchtree]

Well Griffen is sure beats me. I don't have a clue - how's that for surrender.

 

[sugarandspice]

The Harvey reference is to Harvey Kietel from Pulp Fiction. He was the clean up man that was always called.

I know. I played off it.

Thanks for the education

FYI Birch, Some misnomers and cliches are getting some unwarranted attention and maybe you should get over to the Site News thread and go Harvey all over it. We need your guidance with all things grammatical. Keep posting them.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm sorry but the Harvey designation belongs to Spaf. He's really good.

 

[Griffin]

Well Griffen is sure beats me. I don't have a clue - how's that for surrender.

That works.

 

[nnuut]

!!!! !!!!

 

[Griffin]

Back to business at hand.

I'm in the F as of tonight so my slant on things is obviously going to trend towards the negative. I want to be honest about my bias up front.

The chart pattern for the S&P shows that a top is forming. That alone does not necessarily constitute a reason to sell. We saw this through the first half of the year, where the market would start looking toppy, only to move higher.

The channel that the S&P had been in for the past two months was broken to the upside as the Dow hype permeated the market, a few days ago. Today, the Dow intraday high was broken, yippe! now what? For three days, we have watched the smart money sell at the end of the day. The volume for the last five days was steadily decreasing until today, when the volume spiked rather significantly. I interpret this as the dying spasm of the Dow hype surge and expect the Dow to fall back in line with the trend of the S&P, not the other way around. However, a sell off of the Dow components could lead to a larger selling spree. The S&P is still far below it's all time high. The S&P broke May's high last Wednesday and has been seeing steadily decreasing intraday high's since.

From the looks of where the money has been flowing (mostly into stocks), the assumption seems to be that a long position is warranted. A lot of us got ourselves into trouble in the first half of the year being overly cautious as the market continued to climb and I think that is motivating this surge into stocks.

During this rally, I have been less aggressive then I was back in April and May which has caused me to miss some big days. However, I am not quite ready to get overly aggressive. I am taking this upside break to the short term channel of the S&P as a warning sign. Today's action is either the beginning of a wild swing or it's the development of a new, even higher growth channel. If the later is the case, I would say we are setting up for another bump and run.....just like May. I'll get back to this in a few days.

I may move back in tomorrow, if I get the sense that were moving into a bump.

 

[tsptalk]

Griffin -
I'm getting tired of giving you positive rep but the quality posts just keep on coming. Keep it up. We appreciate it!

Tom

 

[Ghageman]

This is exactly the kind of post that makes this site worth reading every day. I'm still new at this game and I don't bother with all the banter, but I enjoy learning more each time I log on...

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Birchy.... loved the Harvey Keitel thing yesterday, I got it.

 

[Birchtree]

And after all is said and done today I really only want to know one thing: who copt my ice enema. That wasn't very nice and chit who knows when I might be offered another one. Techy has been quiet all day - I bet he's sitting at home with that smile and chill.

 

[mlk_man]

Techy has been quiet all day - I bet he's sitting at home with that smile and chill.

Yesterday was his first losing trade in what, 4 or 5 years..........

 

[Birchtree]

These boots are made for walkin and one of these days these boots are gonna walk all over you Mr Bear. Along with a new all-time high for the Dow yesterday, we also had a CBOE Put/Call ratio of 1.18, obviously there is much doubt - which means we got a long way to go to the upside. Alright boots start walkin...

 

[mlk_man]

These kind of boots?