Bull Pen - Fall 2006

[Birchtree]

Griffen,

I don't mean to taunt anyone - I'm basically just being playful and being a bull at the same time. When I first joined the board I was terribly reluctant to even turn on the lights - there used to be such a scramble. Now, if you want taunt, bring back the Lizard, he was a consummate practitioner of flatulence. He absolutely had nothing positive to opine. I at least give reasons as to why I think and invest in a certain way - and I'm a loner by all definitions. If you all stay in the G fund waiting for the world economy to end Tully Turtle will just keep on comin. I don't really have the time or interest for the hypothetical. But I might be interested in one good money manger. And if Traffic Dog is in the power (excuse me, super power) account level he must be older than dirt which gives him priority to say anything he desires - afterall he has paid his dues. He is also a good poet and at one ti me came to my assistance. The only transgression he can make against me would be to call me a liberal. That would truly bring out the vehemence.

 

[FundSurfer]

A couple thoughts on Griffin's post. 1. To each his own. Birchy has stated in the past that his TSP account is part of a bigger portfolio. Thus this is where he is parking his low risk money since the fees can't be beat. He is happy with the long term return of the C-fund. He is bullish, as am I, for the c-fund long term. The c-fund long term return meets his return goals and risk goals. I appreciate his bullish comments, they are by far better than "listening" to some of the doom and gloom bears. 2. I think I could play the game and beat the C-fund (I've said before I'm competitive), however I don't agree with the purpose of the game. I don't think I've even read where Birchy made derogatory comments to anyone for moving their money. He has merely been consistant in his bullish comments.

 

[Show-me]

Hey Birch,

Who is staying in the G fund? The G is a capital prez. position, that's all. Your 27th on the tally and the G fund is 53rd with a difference of 4.83%. In 2,275 post you say the same thing and are in weak position IMHO. And another thing...........after 2,275 posts of saying the same thing isn't tauting or not having enough time for the hypothetical ..................:blink: what ever!

Griffen,

I don't mean to taunt anyone................If you all stay in the G fund waiting for the world economy to end Tully Turtle will just keep on comin. I don't really have the time or interest for the hypothetical.

 

[The_Technician]

Hey Birch,

Who is staying in the G fund? The G is a capital prez. position, that's all. Your 27th on the tally and the G fund is 53rd with a difference of 4.83%. In 2,275 post you say the same thing and are in weak position IMHO. And another thing...........after 2,275 posts of saying the same thing isn't tauting or not having enough time for the hypothetical ..................:blink: what ever!

What I don't like is how you Birchy have consistently preached buying as the market fell over the year and then of course it has recovered...you have netted very little, only from what you have bought in the lows, but gained nothing in what you could have sold and repositioned your assets.....this isn't really the boards interests....you might as well be in a mutual fund.....

 

[mlk_man]

Boy if this isin't the pot calling the kettle black..........what have you been preaching until recently?

 

[Birchtree]

Showme,

We have 9,973 TSPtalk associates - how many jumping beans are being tracked by EWG? That's a small percentage. Do what you want with your money because others will do what they want. You sound like a repeat of Wheels and that's OK because I don't listen just like you don't. The C fund will outperform and I get pms from members who appreciate the slower longer term risk averse approach. The only thing that matters is the growth of money because money likes to make money. So far this year I've pulled down $1.15 in the C fund and if you add in all the DCAs that are now in back of me - buddy I'm pleased. Now I'm thinking about next year. A 100% position is aggressive and for me at the same time risk averse because I've educated myself over the last 2,227 single mined posts. I have other things to do besides play jumping bean - but you go right ahead and have a ball. I'm not critical of the concept because my time will come and I'll be doing serious gun play for myself - until then I don't need the practice. Didn't I tell you about all the trees in the forest - climb to the top of the hill and relax.

Technician,

Please stop mumbling. Sometime today I am going to sell a stock that I initially started accumulating in 5/22/01. I purchased 4 small positions throughout 02 and into 03 and 04. I do like to buy on the downside. In this particular case I spent a total of $5,144 and am now getting ready as a sacrifice to sell for $19,419 which gives me a round profit of $14,057. Some of that profit will be going into for example TKR GE, PFE, LYO. So you see how easy investing can be when you maintain discipline of approach. Snort.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

I don't think I've even read where Birtchy made derogatory comments to anyone for moving their money. He has merely been consistent in his bullish comments.

"how many jumping beans are being tracked by EWG?" -Birchtree. This ain't exactly a term of respect.

"If you all stay in the G fund waiting for the world economy to end Tully Turtle will just keep on comin." - Birchtree. Birchy, that was the Lizard's mantra....constant, unrelenting doom and gloom. Short term moves to the G doesn't mean one is waiting for economic calamity.

My point is this. Trying to recognize and profit from market overshoots is risky and time consuming and can be physically draining as well.

I consider your "perma-bull" position a worthy strategy and I respect the fact that it is based on experience and research. I do not believe it is the one that requires the most stamina, risk tolerance or balls....quite the opposite. It reminds me too much a broker showing me a colored graph of 50 years of S and P returns and telling me to thow it in there and forget it. I know you do have an exit strategy, but I'm saying what it feels like.

This is from where my irritation was born, spawning my post.

I do appreciate your humor and self deprecation regarding your intransigence.

PS- I love your politics!

 

[Birchtree]

Alright, alright, I can't stand the fire and criticism. I've decided to go over and let them pick on me at Frenchee's place. Nah, I like the love and attention and sometimes negative attention is certainly better than no attention. M y daughter used to say "Why do I have to sweep the driveway" and I'd say "Honey because it builds character". So stick it to me - I'm staying right here where my mission can accomplish the most good or on occasion irritate the few. And besides I'm still on the learning curve and I continue to learn each and every day. I even recognize certain weather patterns that are instrumental as a signal to encourage members to flee to the G fund. There I go again. Snort. My dear wife will on accasion refer to me as being incorrigible not realizing that is one of the 120 reasons she married me.

 

[Wheels]

I appreciate his bullish comments, they are by far better than "listening" to some of the doom and gloom bears.... I don't think I've even read where Birchy made derogatory comments to anyone for moving their money. He has merely been consistant in his bullish comments.

I don't read too many of Birch's posts anymore but when I do I find them highly antagonistic (which is why I don't read many of them). However in reading this thread I see where he said that since I have a TSP account bigger than his, I must be older than dirt. Pretty derogatory if you ask me.

BTW, I'm 44.

 

[Birchtree]

Wheels,

My dear ATC that oscilloscope has left you confused. My mention of older than dirt was addressed to Traffic Dog. You are infact way to young - go back to your initial post and check those numbers. If I recall $ pops out at me - a miraculous gain. Regardless keep up the good work and may the S fund continue to shower you with prosperity.

Dennis

 

[tsptalk]

What I don't like is how you Birchy have consistently preached buying as the market fell over the year and then of course it has recovered...you have netted very little, only from what you have bought in the lows, but gained nothing in what you could have sold and repositioned your assets.....this isn't really the boards interests....you might as well be in a mutual fund.....

I disagree. I think it is in the board's interest to hear both (or all) sides of the story, even if we're all full of it.

 

[FundSurfer]

Ok... once again I'm shown to have thicker skin than average. I will grant that Birchy is at times abrasive. I guess that living in the land of cubicles where being PC is the norm, I appreciate someone who is willing to speak their mind as long as they don't step over the line of what I'd call derogatory. I guess my definition is a little more liberal than most.

Birchtree, I think the masses are saying that they'd appreciate a little less abrasiveness.

 

[Birchtree]

OK, I am who I am and I don't eat Spinach. But I certainly don't see any masses lined up in formation requesting abolition. And since we don't practice absolutism here, I'll take your kind words under advisement. You just don't know how lonely it is in the C fund - it's like being the only survivor on Gilligan island. I'll make no more jumping bean comments. Would walking on a hot tin roof be more socially acceptable. How about the Nikkei rolling over and hitting the floor at 15,000. Even as the Dow marches on decoupling for a period of time from Euroland.

 

[sugarandspice]

Sugar,

Come in here Sugar! It sounds like some people need an imaginary friend.

 

[sugarandspice]

Sugar,

Come in here Sugar! It sounds like some people need an imaginary friend.

Drop dead Jackass!

 

[Show-me]

Birchy,
I don't mind you banging your drum, just not so damn hard.

 

[Griffin]

.............Even as the Dow marches on decoupling for a period of time from Euroland.

Birch, in this day and age of globalization, how do you see the European economy decoupling with the US, or any other major player (i.e. China, Japan and India)? The linkages within our economies have never been more integrated.

 

[Birchtree]

Griffin,

You are mistaking the Dow for a mirror of the economy - it does not always follow true. For example, our economy may slow and at the same time the stock market may outperform. The reverse has just happened over the last 3 years where SPX companies were posting double digit earnings and the SPX was asleep. The same thing may happen in the OSMs - just a what if thought. Don't you like the idea of the Nikkei retesting 15,000? It would be very healthy providing it doesn't take too long - isn't there a 4 year cycle low that may impact Japan and Euroland. Just food for thought.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

You just don't know how lonely it is in the C fund - it's like being the only survivor on Gilligan island. I'll make no more jumping bean comments. Would walking on a hot tin roof be more socially acceptable.

Sorry about the mini firestorm Birchy. I'm not so thin skinned as to have a problem with being a jumping bean, that's actually pretty good. It was just something you said right after FS couldn't recall any derogatory comments about anyone who can't eat C porridge every day for years and never take a dump.

To paraphrase Robin Williams: I've never seen an investor so much in need of an ice water and I Fund enema.

Don't change a thing....... cheers.

 

[Birchtree]

Traffic-Dog,

I'm lost when you mention porridge and so and so. I'm sure I didn't make any derogatory comment in that vein. Re-check and let me know where I can find it - may come in handy later.