Bull Pen - Fall 2006

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

I have a game we can play - we'll call it "If I were Birchtree" (IIWB) - I will start a new thread for this game and post the rules when we get a few people to join in.

The committment is for one year - interested in playing? PM me (anyone who's intereted). I'll provide the prize for the winner!

Birch, put your money where mouth is....the gauntlet is thrown

Griffin, I don't think you're being fair to 'ole Birchy. He hasn't really challeged anyone as far as I can tell. He's chosen his method for now and I think it's due to many factors. If he wanted to put the energy into the game he could just as soon do it for real.

How about slightly different rules to your game though for the others.

Lets call it "The complete folly of dollar cost averaging as a way to maximize the Power Account's share purchasing throughout the year"...
or "TCFODCAAAWTMTPASPTTY"

Lets credit the fake accounts with contributions every 2 weeks into the G Fund for everyone. You get just one round trip IFT per calender month to sweep this money into and out of the C Fund only. You can leave the first IFT in effect as long as you wish. I think we'll find that one well timed IFT will have ten times the benefit of DCA.

Everyone should start with a balance of $400,000.

 

[Birchtree]

That sounds fun - only I still prefer to leave my DCAs to fate. As a matter of fact I'm leaving my whole account to fate and a judicious trust in the momentum of the mega trend secular bull market. I really don't think there will be much volatility all next year and perhaps beyond. Isn't the VIX currently under 12. In the meantime I'll keep an eagle eye on the situations and trends. No need to rush into anything.

 

[Birchtree]

The ideal bear signal would be the SPX's fall under 1323 simultaneously with the VIX above 13. But it won't happen, Earnings momentum will determine whether it is large-cap or small cap that leads, this is the healthiest environment in at least four decades. I just had to say it one more time.

 

[ocean]

WOW, this board is so busy tonight and so many things going on at the same time and I can't keep up with the reading. I will take my time to read and may respond too.

Ocean

 

[Griffin]

Birch,

I have recieved zero private response to my "If I Were Birchtree" proposition. That tells me something.

However, the aftermath of that comment was pretty interesting. Personally, I don't really care what you do with your money. Mike Causey would consider you a hero.

Anyway, what gets me irritated is the mega super secular macro ultra evolutionary long term perma-bull response to a comment about the market consolidating over the next couple of days.

If you don't want to talk apples to apples then don't. But the perma bull drivel really is not part of any short term strategy. It's like talking about what commuter car to buy with your buddies, and some chimes in with....."if you save for twenty years you could get a Lamborghani when you retire." It's just not part of the discussion, do you see the difference?

 

[fedgolfer]

Birch,

I have recieved zero private response to my "If I Were Birchtree" proposition. That tells me something.

However, the aftermath of that comment was pretty interesting. Personally, I don't really care what you do with your money. Mike Causey would consider you a hero.

Anyway, what gets me irritated is the mega super secular macro ultra evolutionary long term perma-bull response to a comment about the market consolidating over the next couple of days.

If you don't want to talk apples to apples then don't. But the perma bull drivel really is not part of any short term strategy. It's like talking about what commuter car to buy with your buddies, and some chimes in with....."if you save for twenty years you could get a Lamborghani when you retire." It's just not part of the discussion, do you see the difference?

I second that motion. Leave the buy & hold strategy banter off the short-term talk boards.

 

[Birchtree]

I genuinely hope Desparado can read this post and realize he can be loved too, no matter investing strategy or politics.

Griffin,

"The commitment is for one year" - if that's short term we don't deal with the same vocabulary. Here comes my abrasive rub - best you close your eyes. For crissakes Griffin, there was no mention about a market consolidation over the next couple of days - pull that cilice off your leg, I think you've had enough. I don't practice a short term strategy with this account, so lock the gate on the wayout. You should know by now that I have gained my illustrious fame because of my gallantry in cycle riding. I've been up and down the mountain many times and I always manage to get back to the top.

Fedgolfer,

The bull pen has never been defined as a short term board. Now unless you want to copy write protect the thread from charlatans like myself, I only have three letters for ya: KMA.

Dennis- permabull#1

 

[fedgolfer]

Fedgolfer,

The bull pen has never been defined as a short term board. Now unless you want to copy write protect the thread from charlatans like myself, I only have three letters for ya: KMA.

Dennis- permabull#1

"The Bull Pen" exists under "Day to Day Market". I don't kiss prunes.

 

[sugarandspice]

Did you use your thesaurus on the above posts Birch? You better hurry and correct those spelling errors.

 

[Birchtree]

All you guys and dolls are so great. Will I need a password from now on? Crude is now at $59.20 and because I'm longer term oriented I'll be buying some energy dividend payers this afternoon with the cash I got yesterday. The nice thing about dividends - they can last longer than the owner and become part of another generation. But I bet you short termers never think past your nose. And for those that can't see past their stomachs they deserve the dicky doo award.

Desparado,

See how much fun you can have here. The amenities include a very large lilly pad as well a clean up service that is very professional.

 

[Birchtree]

Fedgolfer,

I just read the subtitle under market to market. Someting like tomorrow, next week, next month and finally etc. And what does etcetera mean - this will be your after hours study for this evening. Hey, thanks for having a good personality - I bet the wife compliments you every day - and yes I'm serious.

 

[Griffin]

Birch,

I said: short term comment

......I would be suprised to see the market continue to move up much more from here and I am expecting some downward action this week. Being the first trading day of the month, I expect the market to come out of the chute to the positive and climbe the wall through the morning. I'm not taking the bait if that happens - I think it will be a bull trap. I'm am considering a move to the F-fund later this week and I will probably make the move on the second day of a sell off......

You said: long term comment

Mostly everyone is concerned about the potential bull trap that could be in waiting - this is classic bull market revenge - keep everyone off guard. But there will be the reward of atonement for those adventurous enough to ride the risk escalator. I want mine.

You tracking now? or is this a short term comment....if so please explain.

 

[Birchtree]

I have an out side portfolio that contains about 178 individual stocks, so I'm always tracking and presently running in front of the train. I'm planning to pick up some more energy holdings this afternoon now that oil is down $2.00. These positions are already owned so I'm simply using short term DCA management to cherry pick the ones experiencing pain - I continue to think that energy is a secular play. I sold a beauty yesterday and am reinvesting the proceeds today - how do you define that strategy. All I'm doing and concerned about is accumulating income - if a capital gain comes later that's great. I took a $14,000 capital gain off the beauty yesterday but when I bought my initial position and consequent positions she was a wall flower. And with the right application of bull manure she flourished and now I was sorry to see her go on her own but you just have be able to make those sacrifices.

 

[Griffin]

...... These positions are already owned so I'm simply using short term DCA management to cherry pick the ones experiencing pain - I continue to think that energy is a secular play. I sold a beauty yesterday and am reinvesting the proceeds today - how do you define that strategy......

Tough to make a call given the information. What was the initial investment, and timeframe? Or without going into any details.....what was the return per time period?

 

[Birchtree]

Please see post #106 on this thread. I don't want to take heat from Wheels for being repetitious. That's only one example - but I have many with the same story. I just spent $98,000 a few weeks ago to DCA on the upside.

 

[Wheels]

I don't want to take heat from Wheels for being repetitious. That's only one example - but I have many with the same story. I just spent $98,000 a few weeks ago to DCA on the upside.

How about taking heat from Wheels about yammering on about none TSP holdings on a TSP Blog.

 

[sugarandspice]

Yeah right Birch! You wheel and deal all your "other" stocks in that giant portfolio with lot and lots of individual stocks in it but here...well here you sit brokenhearted...tried to IFT but only farted. Sure It makes perfect sense.

And by the way, did you see all the words that are spelled incorrectly in this thread? Please, we need your help again.

 

[Birchtree]

Go ahead young man gimme some heat. Don't dare to buy the top or will you wait for a 2% correction. That S fund could easily get away from you over the next three months if you are too hesitant.

Dennis - permabull#1

 

[Birchtree]

Sugar,

Love me doo....I do alot more buying that I do selling. I simply hate to sell because it's usually the wrong thing to do at the wrong time, but I do it out of necessity to get cash. And let's face it there are more wall flowers out there that need cuddling in a cozy portfolio. Don't be so delicate about your spelling - I was told that in fact Feduciaries is a term for employees., so you're covered. The information that I consume for investing is all related to all types of accounts. I mean afterall how many individual stocks are there in the I fund, what about the S fund or the lonely C fund. These retirement funds because of Uncles fiduciary responsibility are not very volatile and it becomes difficult to pistool shoot them unless one has substantial assets. But the predominate wisdom says that if you are close to retirement you should pull in your horns and retreat to the lilly pad - well I'm going to tell you that is the wrong strategy if you want to use your resources to multiply your gains - just educate yourself first and that is the mission. Snort

 

[Birchtree]

Sugar,

I just saw the imagery you left - you're cool. I still have those shoes that were left behind (that's a pun) at my place by the Wizard - ther're free.