Bull Pen - Fall 2006

[James48843]

"S" or "F". That is the question.

I think the "S" has just about hit the top, as evidenced by the weak comeback yesterday afternoon. When it dropped at mid-day, I expected to see either a strong comeback, indicating more upside ahead, or a weak comeback, meaning it's just about run it's short term course. The weak comeback was an indicator for me to watch it closely today and think hard about whether to move to "F" or not.

Scanning my lanes.
Just watching very, very closely today for a target to pop up.

 

[Griffin]

Just watching very, very closely today for a target to pop up.

James,

It's a target rich environment. I see the F having another green day tomorrow. All the stock funds could go either way or drag out for another day.

The question for today is "do we have all the consolidation happening today that we need for the next rally?"

I wish I had the answer, but if tomorrow is a solid green day, then dollar index may once again make another push higher which compromises the I fund.

I hate chasing the market but I truely believe trying to time in this environment is so difficult that all things being equal, all in is the better route.

Going back in the S.

 

[Griffin]

The last couple of days shows why it is virtualy impossible to time in this high growth environment. Although things were going according to plan until that plane incident.

It figures the euphoria from the butt whoopin the Eagles put on TO and the Cowboys would be erased by another Philly reject. That is par for the course in this city. :nuts:

A couple of days ago, I was talking about getting on the front end of the next rally by being in the domestics (I'm currently 100% S). So far so good, the next move is a well timed slide into the I.

The dollar index is up against the resistance from the summer's highs. If this resistance holds through today, I may inititate the IFT to the I as early as tomorrow.

 

[airlift]

A trader, Kevin Ferris (I believe that's his name), at Bloomberg.com was interviewed right now. His opinion is to pay attention to the Beige Book contents this afternoon. He opines that more downside is probable this afternoon. I am still in G, and perhaps I will miss out some, but October is a tricky month, and I decided to let this play out this week! Good Luck! --

The last couple of days shows why it is virtualy impossible to time in this high growth environment. Although things were going according to plan until that plane incident.

It figures the euphoria from the butt whoopin the Eagles put on TO and the Cowboys would be erased by another Philly reject. That is par for the course in this city. :nuts:

A couple of days ago, I was talking about getting on the front end of the next rally by being in the domestics (I'm currently 100% S). So far so good, the next move is a well timed slide into the I.

The dollar index is up against the resistance from the summer's highs. If this resistance holds through today, I may inititate the IFT to the I as early as tomorrow.

 

[Birchtree]

From John Templeton: Bull markets are born on pessimison, grow on skepticism, mature on optimisim and die on euphoria. This board majority is definitely at skepticism and that's fine - we have a market. Let'er rip. Snort.

 

[Griffin]

MSCI EAFE is +.404 for today. Probably will be a substantial FV today. The FV will probably be taken back tomorrow night, therefore, tomorrow is starting to look like a good day to IFT into the I, but I'm still waiting for the dollar to show signs of weakening.

 

[Griffin]

The dollar index is continuing it's march upwards today. I said a few days ago that I can see it peaking (short term) around 87.5 and I am still inclined to believe that, although overall the dollar is back in the pilot's seat and in control of the global economy. I attribute that to the price of oil. Remember those discussions about the Euro becoming a currency to buy oil? Not so much now.

If we do see 87.5, I will most likely move back into the I. Were close, but not quite there yet. When it hit 87.2 on Wednesday and then started to slink down, I started to believe that it may have found it's top and I was getting poised to make the move. I am putting that on hold for a couple of days.

The ten-year treasury note seems to have reversed it's downward course, once again making the F-fund a losing proposition the majority of time. That is unfortunate in that it can be useful when doing CP. However, I also herald this turn because it is suggstive that this bull run in the stock market has got long term substance to it.

I concur with Spaf and Show-me....this continues to be a time to stay on top of your trails and stops. I may occassionally dart into the G as we inch towards the channel bottoms, but I don't expect to stay anymore then a day unless the bottom drops out.

The pattern of a couple days up and a couple of days sideways will keep the timer on edge. In the end, if you end up riding the market through the downside of the bottom of this channel for a day because of a hold strategy, you will still be better off then missing weeks worth of gains. I am in concurrence with the artificial bull run election hype. Nothing will take the wind out of the liberal sails like a twenty five point drop in the S&P, if they take control of congress after months of straight gains. This is industries way of putting a warning shot across their bow.

 

[AIF]

Griffin, is it possible to show on a chart what you mean when you use the phrase "bottom of it's channel" or "toward the channel bottoms". TY in advance. AIF

 

[Birchtree]

Griffin,

I liked that read. I don't dare stick my head out to check the temperature - things are moving so fast. I left a delicate read on the I fund in my post - just basic data. You might venture a look for future reference. Take care.

 

[James48843]

...A couple of days ago, I was talking about getting on the front end of the next rally by being in the domestics (I'm currently 100% S). So far so good, the next move is a well timed slide into the I.

The dollar index is up against the resistance from the summer's highs. If this resistance holds through today, I may inititate the IFT to the I as early as tomorrow.

Griffin- I think you are dead on with that statement. I too am 100% "S", and looking at all the indicators, think it might be a good time to jump from one train moving very fast ("S"), onto another parallel train moving now ("I"), with at least SOME of that. It's always tricky when jumping one train to another, but it's better to be on the train moving at high speed than to be stuck on the station platform.

I MAY move some back into "G" today, however, and catch the penny over the weekend. That too sounds like a winning strategy for me as a swing trader. This month has been very, very good to me, and I'd like to hang on to that for a bit.

 

[Griffin]

Griffin, is it possible to show on a chart what you mean when you use the phrase "bottom of it's channel" or "toward the channel bottoms". TY in advance. AIF

Hope this helps:

 

[AIF]

It does help. Thanks.

 

[Griffin]

Griffin- I think you are dead on with that statement. I too am 100% "S", and looking at all the indicators, think it might be a good time to jump from one train moving very fast ("S"), onto another parallel train moving now ("I"), with at least SOME of that. It's always tricky when jumping one train to another, but it's better to be on the train moving at high speed than to be stuck on the station platform.

I MAY move some back into "G" today, however, and catch the penny over the weekend. That too sounds like a winning strategy for me as a swing trader. This month has been very, very good to me, and I'd like to hang on to that for a bit.

It is never my intention to tell people what to do. But here's something to consider: today's breather gives the market the space it needs for another decent run.

 

[Birchtree]

http://safehaven.com
From Volkmar Hable - investment commentary - The S&P 500 rally has become verticle last week. Such hyperbolic spikes usually are subject to sharp and deep corrections. New longs should wait for the next correction. I'll take the opposite trade from this bear too. Staying in front of the train.

 

[FundSurfer]

http://safehaven.com
From Volkmar Hable - investment commentary - The S&P 500 rally has become verticle last week. Such hyperbolic spikes usually are subject to sharp and deep corrections. New longs should wait for the next correction. I'll take the opposite trade from this bear too. Staying in front of the train.

That's exactly the kind of action I don't want to jump in front of.

 

[Griffin]

That's exactly the kind of action I don't want to jump in front of.

The S&P 500 is approaching the trend line set by the first half of the year. I am not making any predictions about what the market will do when it hit's that point. However, there are three obvious possibilities (I am going to be "master of the obvious" on this because how to react may not be so obvious). I mentioned this a few weeks ago, with the expectation that this would likely happen between 19-25 October.

1. The market punches right through this point and continues to move upward in the current channel. If this happens for any extended period of time (say a couple of weeks), then this trend line is likely to control the support level for the next pullback. In this scenario, we continue to see green days with a little sideways action mixed in. In which case, holding continues to be the best strategy, with a careful eye on those stops.

2. The market moves back into the channel set by the first half of the year. In this case, I would reasonable expect the market to continue without any significant pullback and the channel carries us into the new year. The shift to this channel would likely involve a couple of red days but overall movement is dominated by the trend. Even at this growth rate, holding was the overall more successful method during this time frame, although I (and others) had some great weeks timing.

3. The market bounces of this level and we go into a major pullback. RED.....RED.....RED. Bail. In this scenario, I see the pullback being sharp and short and quickly reverting to a high growth recovery.

The point of this post is that scenario 2 may start out looking like scenario 1 or 3, these days will likely be very volatile (which is why tech is calling for a FV on the 19th if you have been following that prediction). Turning points are always difficult and don't get discouraged if you find yourself leaning the wrong way coming out of the turmoil of those days. Get back in the saddle quickly, as appropriate.

 

[Show-me]

I'm feeling bullish this week.........be scared, be very scared.

 

[Griffin]

I'm feeling bullish this week.........be scared, be very scared.

Show-me,

Yesterday I had a chill sent down my spine........but not because you were feeling bullish .

Nope, the chill came not as a result of that horrifying Eagles defeat (although that was unsettling), it came when I settled down to watch the Amazing Race...

If you weren't tuned in, the show was delayed by twenty minutes, in lieu of a 60 minutes episode about how the far right was manipulating the evangelical christians for political gain by playing on their spirituality. I watched in horror......and not because of any political or religous affiliation.....but because the technique CBS used was so slimy and subliminal.

The chess game for control of congress is now entering the end game play and both sides are leveraging every last bit of PR they can muster. This is becoming a kicking and screaming match.

Interestingly, (I believe it was Kudlow and Co) did a poll on what scenario would be best for the stock market. The result was that the left gains control of the house came in at number one, the right maintains control of both houses came in second and the left gaining control of either both or the senate were 3rd and 4th. I interpret this as meaning that the best thing that could happen would be political grid lock (without the left having control over the military's budget), the slightly less desirable alternative is the right stays in control and we continue with the current spending, and of course a distant third is any other configuration that puts the left in control of the military's budget.

For the most part this in and of itself would not even raise my blood pressure one point. However, I got a chill because I now realize (suspect) that depending how things shake out, the economics of the next two years are going to be driven by one side or the other actually "attempting" to derail the economy to prove their point because this next presidential election is that important , and there is absolutely no sacred ground. Our politicians will break this system before they allow the other side to take any credit for anything.

I will be in the G before election day....regardless of how this channel continues to progress.

 

[Show-me]

Yes it will get ugly. The damn system stopped me from giving you any more reputation so here is an IOU. The gloves will really be off after the mid-term and that will be reason for caution.:worried:

Show-me,

Yesterday I had a chill sent down my spine........but not because you were feeling bullish .

Nope, the chill came not as a result of that horrifying Eagles defeat (although that was unsettling), it came when I settled down to watch the Amazing Race...

If you weren't tuned in, the show was delayed by twenty minutes, in lieu of a 60 minutes episode about how the far right was manipulating the evangelical christians for political gain by playing on their spirituality. I watched in horror......and not because of any political or religous affiliation.....but because the technique CBS used was so slimy and subliminal.

The chess game for control of congress is now entering the end game play and both sides are leveraging every last bit of PR they can muster. This is becoming a kicking and screaming match.

Interestingly, (I believe it was Kudlow and Co) did a poll on what scenario would be best for the stock market. The result was that the left gains control of the house came in at number one, the right maintains control of both houses came in second and the left gaining control of either both or the senate were 3rd and 4th. I interpret this as meaning that the best thing that could happen would be political grid lock (without the left having control over the military's budget), the slightly less desirable alternative is the right stays in control and we continue with the current spending, and of course a distant third is any other configuration that puts the left in control of the military's budget.

For the most part this in and of itself would not even raise my blood pressure one point. However, I got a chill because I now realize (suspect) that depending how things shake out, the economics of the next two years are going to be driven by one side or the other actually "attempting" to derail the economy to prove their point because this next presidential election is that important , and there is absolutely no sacred ground. Our politicians will break this system before they allow the other side to take any credit for anything.

I will be in the G before election day....regardless of how this channel continues to progress.

 

[nnuut]

I took care of the reputation, I agree good post!
Norman