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Bull Pen - Fall 2006
- Thread starter Griffin
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
Some market Comments:
The market is overbought, but indicators point to more uptrend into the elections. Friday could have been another one of those buying dip bargins or the start of a pull-back. I joined Griffin and added a 20% postion in the S Fund that I will probably keep it for the next few weeks. If things get ugly next week I'll jump and buy back later.
It's hard to be bearish now. Seasonally, this time of the year is when stocks like to rally. With a better than 95% probability of a rally the next week or so. However, it could go down, but the odds are against it. One of my newsletters guys went long Friday after being in cash for the last couple of months.
Next week has plenty of market moving data to swing the indexes. Traders will love it, trend traders will not, longer term investors it's all noise. Remember, this is the best time of the year to be in stocks. It's hard to be a bear now.
I should take more risk, but it's not my nature. I'm very happy when I reach my goal to get 7% to 10% returns yearly. For many years I was 100% in stocks. I'm happy with a balanced portfolio and go long on what I think are good setups. But robo, why don't you take more risk and make more money in the market? How much is enough? Most of the money I'm making now I will never spend. I know some might find this hard to believe, but money and material things don't have as much meaning to me as years past. What's important now is my health, family and simple life that provides me the basics. Currently debt free, living a modest life style with a **** load of money and a good retirement income.
I don't have a super mega account, but it's sweet. It's not how much you make, it's what you have left after you pay out your monthly bills! Don't always live for today, remember to save some for tomorrow. Staying 20 years in the Army was one of the best decisions of my life. For those that want to retire and live in the fast lane, go for the big bucks. Nothing wrong with trying to be a millionaire like Birchtree.
GO GO Birchtree!
Good trading/investing!
Birchtree
Well-known member
Robo,
My good man, you have exactly what I want: "Currently debt free, **** load of money, and a good retirement" only I'm not there yet that's why I keep plugging away. I'm going to try and encourage my daughter to do twenty - she's currently running with the boys in the 25th Infantry and recently increased her TSP allocation while she is in Kirkuk. Guess which fund she is allocating into - the dark and dangerous C fund of course. I really don't think we are in for much of a back up. Thanx.
My good man, you have exactly what I want: "Currently debt free, **** load of money, and a good retirement" only I'm not there yet that's why I keep plugging away. I'm going to try and encourage my daughter to do twenty - she's currently running with the boys in the 25th Infantry and recently increased her TSP allocation while she is in Kirkuk. Guess which fund she is allocating into - the dark and dangerous C fund of course. I really don't think we are in for much of a back up. Thanx.
robo
Well-known member
Birchtree,
I hope she stays the course. It's much tougher now then when I was in. I wish we would give our service members another 20% pay increase immediately. When you want to keep the best and brightest you have to pay up. I thank her for her service, and you should be a proud father.
To the Market - I'm not sure how much more this Market can go up without a 3% to 5% pullback, but the trend remains up, and we are now in the best time of the year to be in the stock market.
Can't wait to start drawing my TSP every month. I don't mind paying taxes on it, stonger military, more roads, better education and BUILD THE WALL! I don't mind paying my share, what a great country we live in!
Griffin
Well-known member
I said awhile ago that I would get out before the elections and I am still thinking that's appropriate. The first day or two of each new month have been very solid this year. As long as nothing tragic happens in the next 48 hours, I will probably pick the next solid green day to ring up my profits.
The question on my mind moving forward is: has the market has now totally priced in political gridlock? The talking heads seem to have reached a general consensus that the liberals taking control of the house would be good for the economy. If gridlock is already priced into the market and every other scenario is less desirable....why be in the market for the election?
The question on my mind moving forward is: has the market has now totally priced in political gridlock? The talking heads seem to have reached a general consensus that the liberals taking control of the house would be good for the economy. If gridlock is already priced into the market and every other scenario is less desirable....why be in the market for the election?
Looks like the 1 day pullback is over. NAZ is heading up.. it wants to retest the 2375 mark.
This should be a good, perhaps even great week, with 3 of the 4 seasonality tendencies in play, starting ......today.....
Jay Kaeppel and his system of being in the maket only when the historical seasonality is positive. Mr. Kaeppel uses 4 tendencies:
1. The two days immedialtely prior to an exchange holiday.
2. The late trading day of the month, and the first four trading days of the next month.
3. November 1 through the 3rd trading day in May.
4. The most 14 favorable months of the 48 month presidential election cycle.
This should be a good, perhaps even great week, with 3 of the 4 seasonality tendencies in play, starting ......today.....
Jay Kaeppel and his system of being in the maket only when the historical seasonality is positive. Mr. Kaeppel uses 4 tendencies:
1. The two days immedialtely prior to an exchange holiday.
2. The late trading day of the month, and the first four trading days of the next month.
3. November 1 through the 3rd trading day in May.
4. The most 14 favorable months of the 48 month presidential election cycle.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Mr Glassman has once again called for Dow 36,000. Where are you Harry Dent? I can't see the future past Dow 17,000. There is $5 trillion being parked in low-yielding savings type instruments and it will follow the herd into the market - when is the question. But it will sound like a massive stampede of bulls thundering at once and what will that do to the cheapest stock market of any time since this secular bull market lifted off in 1980. Don't stand near any flat rocks when the Bulltinkey is released.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Has anybody been delagted yet to order the tourniquets - we may need them soon. There is a traumatic bear trap being set. They just keep coming through the door and history tells us there will not be a single bear standing at the top - they will bleed for months on months. There are some guys talking about a bull trap with a potential cycle reversal date on 11/28/06.
Griffin
Well-known member
Given the recent action and today's futures, I am optimistic that we will see the market retest the recent intraday highs within the next couple of days. This is my target to move into CP mode for the election.
The target numbers are:
S&P500 - 1390
DWCP - 608
I am expecting a sell off to begin either the day of or shortly after the election...."Buy the rumor, sell the news"
The target numbers are:
S&P500 - 1390
DWCP - 608
I am expecting a sell off to begin either the day of or shortly after the election...."Buy the rumor, sell the news"
ATCJeff
Well-known member
I think the election will not be a concern for the market. Policy is not going to change anytime soon.
There are alot of Republicans talking about reducing cost in gov't over the next two years. I see this as a plus for the market.
I'm with Birchy, back up the truck and give me a load of cash! This market is going up!
There are alot of Republicans talking about reducing cost in gov't over the next two years. I see this as a plus for the market.
I'm with Birchy, back up the truck and give me a load of cash! This market is going up!
Griffin
Well-known member
I don't see it as a catalyst for a 10% pullback, but I do expect the market to react. Volume will be the big indicator. Recently, we have seen a trend of selling outpacing buying on very high volume days, and I think the market is scrambling for a reason to take a break. Look at last weeks reaction to the GDP numbers - did that number really deserve a 1% sell off?
I am still expecting this channel to shift, but as I always say, I don't tell people what to do, only what I'm thinking. I would like to see the market continue on this pace, but it will have to take a break at some point.
View attachment 1167
Griffin
Well-known member
For those that are interested, here's how I look at volume
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=^tv.n;range=5d;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=
This link will take you to the volume for the NYSE. Typically, the volume will cross the 1.0 million shares mark around 11:35 to 12:10. Obviously, the earlier that it crosses that point gives you an idea of how heavy the volume is. I look for trends in volume, (high volume red, low volume green is the current trend). Volume has been slipping lately, and I expect the next resurgence to bring about a couple of red days
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=^tv.n;range=5d;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=
This link will take you to the volume for the NYSE. Typically, the volume will cross the 1.0 million shares mark around 11:35 to 12:10. Obviously, the earlier that it crosses that point gives you an idea of how heavy the volume is. I look for trends in volume, (high volume red, low volume green is the current trend). Volume has been slipping lately, and I expect the next resurgence to bring about a couple of red days
weatherweenie
Well-known member
May help things. Then again, who can really trust N. Korea?
BEIJING - The U.S. and Chinese governments announced Tuesday that North Korea agreed to rejoin six-nation nuclear disarmament talks, a surprise diplomatic breakthrough that comes only three weeks after the communist regime conducted its first known atomic test. The agreement was struck in a day of unpublicized discussions between the senior envoys from the United States, China and North Korea at a government guesthouse in Beijing.
BEIJING - The U.S. and Chinese governments announced Tuesday that North Korea agreed to rejoin six-nation nuclear disarmament talks, a surprise diplomatic breakthrough that comes only three weeks after the communist regime conducted its first known atomic test. The agreement was struck in a day of unpublicized discussions between the senior envoys from the United States, China and North Korea at a government guesthouse in Beijing.
Griffin
Well-known member
View attachment 1169
The market took quite a tumble yesterday, and given that it was the first day of the month, I moved to the G-fund.
This morning things have taken a turn for the worse, as the "soft-landing" / "goldilocks" scenarios are now up for serious debate.
I see 1360 as the critical point for the S&P 500. Will 1360 provide the support necessary to keep the market from a pullback? If it holds, even tentatively, for a few days, I would expect my "1st half of the year channel theory" to materialize. In which case I will get back in the market after the elections. Otherwise, I'm going to stay on the sidelines. The problem with the S&P floundering along support, is that the DWCP (S-fund) could take a beating while this is going on, before it finds support.
I have not analyzed an expected support level if a pullback materializes, I am putting that on hold until it actually happens.
The market took quite a tumble yesterday, and given that it was the first day of the month, I moved to the G-fund.
This morning things have taken a turn for the worse, as the "soft-landing" / "goldilocks" scenarios are now up for serious debate.
I see 1360 as the critical point for the S&P 500. Will 1360 provide the support necessary to keep the market from a pullback? If it holds, even tentatively, for a few days, I would expect my "1st half of the year channel theory" to materialize. In which case I will get back in the market after the elections. Otherwise, I'm going to stay on the sidelines. The problem with the S&P floundering along support, is that the DWCP (S-fund) could take a beating while this is going on, before it finds support.
I have not analyzed an expected support level if a pullback materializes, I am putting that on hold until it actually happens.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
I agree that handle is forming in the s fund. As for the C Fund, the retracement after the bullish breakout will probably be the fib retracement... probably close to the 50 day MA... 100% speculation at this point. That would be great in a few weeks if we heard the Fed speculate about lowering rates... that would definitely bring the buyers/support back.
robo
Well-known member
Some Market Comments:
Distribution still taking place.
The Employment Report tomorrow morning could set us free and may get things moving again. I would think the employment numbers will be weak, but I also thought we would rally the last 3 days. Got stopped out of my long postion early.
Which direction do we go? Maybe down and then back up again. Wish I new.
Plenty of Bad news this week and the Bulls still think soft landing. Hey, they could be right!
The Trend is the Trend and if this thing breaks out again we must follow the tape.
This Market does not want to go DOWN YET!
I'll be watching the Bond Market more then the stock Market tomorrow.
Hard-landing or Soft-landing? I'm still keeping my eye on the Bond Market tomorrow. The data this week points to the landing just might not be as as soft as some thought.
Oh Boy! Entering the best three months and still no rally!
Soon they will be talking about inflation again.
Bond Market still betting the Fed will be cutting rates next year. Isn't that suppose to be good for stocks? Right!
Again, 1360 S&P holds up well.... The S&P short-term is oversold and looks to
bounce. The daily chart of the S&P 500, the 3-day RSI indicates short-term we are getting into oversold territory.
Any thoughs on oil? I have a small long postion.
Is Birchtree still in the C Fund and is he still Bullish? ( Joke )
All the above comments are just noise for long term investors.
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