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Bull Pen - Fall 2006
- Thread starter Griffin
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
Might Fade you tomorrow for some pain. I still have way to much money for retirement and when I short this market I give you some more of my money for the Birchtree Express. Don't worry, I have figured out that if your going to trade you better have stops in place. Wins over loses.
Bob's latest is in your Box.
Take care!
genod
Member
Or...if the market falls, I'll watch with glee as I reenter the market at a lower point and reap the benefits of *BOTH* DCA and the capital I preserved.
robo
Well-known member
ATCJeff
Well-known member
Great article. Makes you think about other possible options we may be facing in the near future.
robo
Well-known member
Go get a beer and listen to some TA work.
http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/2006/11/video-technical-analysis-of-markets.html
http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/2006/11/video-technical-analysis-of-markets.html
robo
Well-known member
Hope you get your rally tomorrow. Some of the best days of the year and we can't make some money here!
Birchtree
Well-known member
Looks like I walked into a bear haven. That's alright, you have to be careful in not getting emotionally motivated that a change of trend has occurred - it hasn't. With the MCSUM's still very high any declines will tend to be of the intraday variety at this stage. Go right, be right and sit tight. Snort.
robo
Well-known member
I'm sure the talk will be bullish soon. The jobs numbers will indicate we are in a sweet-spot. The numbers should show that we are in a slow-down. Hey, we already knew that. Everyone will try and spin the numbers. Don't worry, be happy and go vote. I voted last week.
Bob is still postive on the economy and I invest longer-term on his advice.
Plenty of Bulls hanging around here. Mostly short-term talk.
I say the jobs numbers will be 65K, release in 10 minutes! Watch the Bond market to see if they had it right.
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
these freakin numbers are worthless...they revised september numbers by over 100%...best to just play the trends
Show-me
Well-known member
weatherweenie
Well-known member
S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. The jobs report showed a lower than expected payrolls gain of 92K for October, but payrolls figures for September and August were upwardly revised to 148K and 230K. Hourly earnings rose 0.4%, above the 0.3% consensus, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.4% from 4.6%. The initial response was positive, but stocks have since pulled back in sympathy a sell-off in Treasuries and remain choppy, indicating a mixed open for the cash market. The 10-yr note is now down 17 ticks, lifting the yield to 4.66%.
robo
Well-known member
Sweet Spot! No recession, I'm joining Birchtree! ( Soon ) I feel better now.
Does this mean no rate cuts? Dollar going up? What about Bonds?
Today I will leave the volume on and watch the CNBC talking heads to get all the spin from the Bulls and Bears.
Griffin, any thoughts?
Still in the G Fund for now.
Does this mean no rate cuts? Dollar going up? What about Bonds?
Today I will leave the volume on and watch the CNBC talking heads to get all the spin from the Bulls and Bears.
Griffin, any thoughts?
Still in the G Fund for now.
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
bond yields popped, the charts saw it comming. dollar following the yield pretty closely past month
BOND REPORT
Treasurys tumble as jobs data erase rate cut hopes
By Ciara Linnane, MarketWatch
Last Update: 9:13 AM ET Nov 3, 2006
Excerpt:
"There is no silver lining to this cloud," said David Ader, head of government bond strategy at RBC Greenwich Capital.
Fed funds futures immediately reacted by erasing the odds of a near-term rate cut, with the bet for a cut by March dropping to 20% from 56%.
"We think the real stress will be on the curve as this could revive Fed-hike ideas and a second dissent in December," said Ader, referring to the likelihood of more than one Federal Open Market Committee voters favoring a rate hike at the Dec. 12 meeting.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={863C7FA8-8732-4B16-A117-92BE79E58F86}
Treasurys tumble as jobs data erase rate cut hopes
By Ciara Linnane, MarketWatch
Last Update: 9:13 AM ET Nov 3, 2006
Excerpt:
"There is no silver lining to this cloud," said David Ader, head of government bond strategy at RBC Greenwich Capital.
Fed funds futures immediately reacted by erasing the odds of a near-term rate cut, with the bet for a cut by March dropping to 20% from 56%.
"We think the real stress will be on the curve as this could revive Fed-hike ideas and a second dissent in December," said Ader, referring to the likelihood of more than one Federal Open Market Committee voters favoring a rate hike at the Dec. 12 meeting.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={863C7FA8-8732-4B16-A117-92BE79E58F86}
Today's trading deadline is gonna be a tough one. Stocks are up but traders are still digesting. The bond market is clearly betting on major troubles ahead, possibly even more rate hikes. The question is: When will stock traders shift their focus from relief that the economy is not slowing and heading for recession, to concern that a stronger economy plus increased labor costs imply renewed inflation threat. Everything could sell off sharply this afternoon or it might take a day or two.
Griffin
Well-known member
Robo, I'm with you on the lilly pad. I think it all comes down to this election. There are so many ramifactions to what is going to happen. Here's my quick list of what is the big ticket items:
- no child left behind and the bigger picture of education in America
- military spending, military contractors (KBR and Halliburton) i.e. fighting the war on the cheap versus military buildup (neither of which are cheap)
- The democrats getting the ability to set congressional agendas and conduct investigations and hearings into the practices of the DoD for the past six years. To include the 9/11 and pre-Iraq war intelligence.
- The continued viability of DHS
- Immigration
- Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan
Bottom line - the potential for big change and a lot of ugliness, any way this election goes. Unless the GOP can hang onto both houses, which I see as unlikely. I believe this is at the heart of the sector rotation into big caps and I interpret that as the big, smart money protecting itself.
I'm not taking any chances. I would rather loose ground against the performance of the funds, then take another crushing blow like I did in June.
- no child left behind and the bigger picture of education in America
- military spending, military contractors (KBR and Halliburton) i.e. fighting the war on the cheap versus military buildup (neither of which are cheap)
- The democrats getting the ability to set congressional agendas and conduct investigations and hearings into the practices of the DoD for the past six years. To include the 9/11 and pre-Iraq war intelligence.
- The continued viability of DHS
- Immigration
- Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan
Bottom line - the potential for big change and a lot of ugliness, any way this election goes. Unless the GOP can hang onto both houses, which I see as unlikely. I believe this is at the heart of the sector rotation into big caps and I interpret that as the big, smart money protecting itself.
I'm not taking any chances. I would rather loose ground against the performance of the funds, then take another crushing blow like I did in June.
Griffin
Well-known member
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