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Bull Pen - Fall 2006
- Thread starter Griffin
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
Griffin
Well-known member
Today's weakness in the dollar may be signaling a change as it brokedown through the six month trend. The ten year note is also reversing for what may be a retest of the low - good for the F-fund, which is where I moved for tomorrow. If it is a retest, and the dollar manages to regain some momentum, I will be out within a day or two.
mayday
Active member
You make a good point Griffin. I'm all I today hoping for that positive FV.Dow and Sp500 are both in upper channels if it holds this afternoon. Momentum might take it higher tommorrow. Dollar has fallen quite a bit. Think I'll go F
Griffin
Well-known member
Griffin
Well-known member
The volume on Monday ended up moderately high and Tuesday was even higher and both were green. Wednesday's volume was extremely high, and was running red as I expected, but still ended in the green due to the Rumsfeld resignation. I am not going to rely on the volume trends as much as we move forward.
The market does not to seem particulary discouraged about the direction of congress and is happy with Rumsfled leaving. Given that the left is talking bipartisan, under threat of a publicity storm, it may be that the political situation will be viewed positively by the public/consumer and we end up with a strong holiday season.
Combine this with the economic slowdown, and we could get a nice timing environment. The trend needs to be established and for now I will continue to play things with a low amount of aggressiveness. I will get more aggressive once I see a pattern, and the indicators become a little more consistent. I typically rely on the MACD, RSI and Slo Sto, which right now seem to inidicate that we have a top forming.
The market does not to seem particulary discouraged about the direction of congress and is happy with Rumsfled leaving. Given that the left is talking bipartisan, under threat of a publicity storm, it may be that the political situation will be viewed positively by the public/consumer and we end up with a strong holiday season.
Combine this with the economic slowdown, and we could get a nice timing environment. The trend needs to be established and for now I will continue to play things with a low amount of aggressiveness. I will get more aggressive once I see a pattern, and the indicators become a little more consistent. I typically rely on the MACD, RSI and Slo Sto, which right now seem to inidicate that we have a top forming.
Griffin
Well-known member
As things stand at the moment, I can see Monday going either way, however, I am leaning towards some more action to the downside through next week given the number of important reports due.
My view on the market has not changed from yesterday. The ten year note opened significantly lower today and is approaching support potentially retesting the lows and forming a double bottom. I am looking for the TNX to break below the 46.0 support to time my move out of the F-fund, possibly today.
The dollar made another lower low today significantly helping the I-fund hold it's prices and giving the EFA a nice boost this morning. The OSM's held up suprisingly well considering yesterday's US decline, once again making the I-fund the attractive place for an aggresive approach.
I would appreciate opinions about Monday - do you expect it to be a red or green?
My view on the market has not changed from yesterday. The ten year note opened significantly lower today and is approaching support potentially retesting the lows and forming a double bottom. I am looking for the TNX to break below the 46.0 support to time my move out of the F-fund, possibly today.
The dollar made another lower low today significantly helping the I-fund hold it's prices and giving the EFA a nice boost this morning. The OSM's held up suprisingly well considering yesterday's US decline, once again making the I-fund the attractive place for an aggresive approach.
I would appreciate opinions about Monday - do you expect it to be a red or green?
FundSurfer
Well-known member
You also need to consider the risk of being in the market over the weekend. Lots of things going on internationally. If nothing happens over the weekend, I'd lean towards green. I haven't made up my mind yet.
robo
Well-known member
November 10, 2006
Market Update: Are We There Yet?
By Dominick
The Nov 4th update stated:
By Friday the bears were out and talking the “C” word again, but after rallying from 1220 to 1390, why worry about a pullback to 1360? Don’t get me wrong, I’ll turn bearish when the time is right, but right now I’m just glad I wasn’t the first in line to go short back in June. The bear call is tempting, but this market is still carefully moving forward 2 steps, and then stepping back one. We’re still vibrating around the hidden Fibonacci level at SPX 1360, and if this becomes support, we’re definitely going higher. In fact, I won’t short this market as long as we’re above that level, to avoid risk of a final blowoff.
With 1360 still acting as support, I’ll allow for additional gains, with first target for the SPX at 1404.25.
Once again the market gapped up on Monday and never looked back. With the bears chasing it all the way into the close, the day was up a whopping 15 1/2 points! Anyone that’s read my updates from August
will have bought the low last Friday into the 1360 Fibonacci support coinciding with the trend lines and forks. Talk about risk reward! Buying low 1360’s, with a stop a few points under it, produced a 3 day gain of 30 points! The chart below is one of the many I post on Saturdays to review the week in context of the big picture.
http://www.tradingthecharts.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=23389#23389
Market Update: Are We There Yet?
By Dominick
The Nov 4th update stated:
By Friday the bears were out and talking the “C” word again, but after rallying from 1220 to 1390, why worry about a pullback to 1360? Don’t get me wrong, I’ll turn bearish when the time is right, but right now I’m just glad I wasn’t the first in line to go short back in June. The bear call is tempting, but this market is still carefully moving forward 2 steps, and then stepping back one. We’re still vibrating around the hidden Fibonacci level at SPX 1360, and if this becomes support, we’re definitely going higher. In fact, I won’t short this market as long as we’re above that level, to avoid risk of a final blowoff.
With 1360 still acting as support, I’ll allow for additional gains, with first target for the SPX at 1404.25.
Once again the market gapped up on Monday and never looked back. With the bears chasing it all the way into the close, the day was up a whopping 15 1/2 points! Anyone that’s read my updates from August
will have bought the low last Friday into the 1360 Fibonacci support coinciding with the trend lines and forks. Talk about risk reward! Buying low 1360’s, with a stop a few points under it, produced a 3 day gain of 30 points! The chart below is one of the many I post on Saturdays to review the week in context of the big picture.
http://www.tradingthecharts.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=23389#23389
Griffin
Well-known member
A lot of folks moved into the I yesterday (I was already in and took yesterday's hit square in the chest). We have seen some great action out of Asia and the release of the retail and PPI numbers are pushing the dollar down. The EZ is reacting positively towards this news. Looks like today is shaping up to be a nice day for the I-fund, and the market as a whole. It looks like the MB got this right.
This is options expiration week, and we usually see a few rough days so I'm debating cashing out before by Thursday for the G on Friday (M_M / Fundsurfer is this correct?)
I am looking/hoping for the EFA to climb near 72.0. This is my target to cash out.
This is options expiration week, and we usually see a few rough days so I'm debating cashing out before by Thursday for the G on Friday (M_M / Fundsurfer is this correct?)
I am looking/hoping for the EFA to climb near 72.0. This is my target to cash out.
Griffin
Well-known member
robo
Well-known member
Why the S&P spike?
Well - 120,000 S&P e-mini futures traded when S&P 1389 was hit.
How many buy stops were waiting on the other side. $8 billion worth my friends.
This Market just keeps going up. All I can say is WOW!
Still in the G Fund in my TSP account. Long oil and shorting the S&P and QQQQ's at today’s close with very tight stops. A large gap up in the morning and I'm out and looking for set-ups. I'm trying to help Birchtree get his 2nd million by keeping Mr. Market climbing.
No technical reason to short, hoping for a small gain and then flip back long or to cash again. Mostly scalping these days at these prices.
I was getting ready to go long next week in TSP 25% to 50%, but after today I'll wait and see how we close on Friday. The last few weeks of November and the first in December, I like to be long. As Tom keeps pointing out seasonality seems to be out the window, but I like to be long this time of the year. Overbought is a word some of us use these days. I know you will not hear it from my friend Birchtree.
During the rally of the 90's I think the Market was overbought for around 5 years.
OH BOY!!!
The position of large commercial traders increased their hedges, and are now holding a new all-time record net short position of $40.3 billion.
No effect short-term, but we need to keep an eye on this going into 2007.
The trend remains up. Again, WOW!
Iran could be a Market Mover soon. I went long on oil today. Iran is starting to feel pretty good that we have no stomach for conflicts in the Middle East.
Please don't respond to Iran comments here in this thread. I just pointed it out, for my reason why I'm getting bullish on oil short-term. If we get higher oil prices will it end the current rally?
Well - 120,000 S&P e-mini futures traded when S&P 1389 was hit.
How many buy stops were waiting on the other side. $8 billion worth my friends.
This Market just keeps going up. All I can say is WOW!
Still in the G Fund in my TSP account. Long oil and shorting the S&P and QQQQ's at today’s close with very tight stops. A large gap up in the morning and I'm out and looking for set-ups. I'm trying to help Birchtree get his 2nd million by keeping Mr. Market climbing.
No technical reason to short, hoping for a small gain and then flip back long or to cash again. Mostly scalping these days at these prices.
I was getting ready to go long next week in TSP 25% to 50%, but after today I'll wait and see how we close on Friday. The last few weeks of November and the first in December, I like to be long. As Tom keeps pointing out seasonality seems to be out the window, but I like to be long this time of the year. Overbought is a word some of us use these days. I know you will not hear it from my friend Birchtree.
During the rally of the 90's I think the Market was overbought for around 5 years.
OH BOY!!!
The position of large commercial traders increased their hedges, and are now holding a new all-time record net short position of $40.3 billion.
No effect short-term, but we need to keep an eye on this going into 2007.
The trend remains up. Again, WOW!
Iran could be a Market Mover soon. I went long on oil today. Iran is starting to feel pretty good that we have no stomach for conflicts in the Middle East.
Please don't respond to Iran comments here in this thread. I just pointed it out, for my reason why I'm getting bullish on oil short-term. If we get higher oil prices will it end the current rally?
Last edited:
Birchtree
Well-known member
Robo,
Fortunately today turned out to be another obscene day for my portfolio. I was wondering who was providing the extra lift - keep up the good work. For my wounded friends - the desire to be right is in direct opposition to the ability to make money. Be right and sit tight.
Dennis - permabull #1
Fortunately today turned out to be another obscene day for my portfolio. I was wondering who was providing the extra lift - keep up the good work. For my wounded friends - the desire to be right is in direct opposition to the ability to make money. Be right and sit tight.
Dennis - permabull #1
ATCJeff
Well-known member
I just don't see oil going above the $60 range anytime soon. OPEC is having a hard time cutting production the 1.2m barrels they advertised. November cuts total only 575,000 barrels. Nigeria is calming down. That helps also.
Now January is a different story. I read (somewhere) that President Bush would start refilling the National Petroleum Reserve back to the pre summer 06 level. As of today I can't find how many barrels they estimate are needed to reach such a level.
robo
Well-known member
Dave's Daily
Tuesday November 14, 2006
Previous | Archives
MARKET COMMENT
November 14, 2006
Here’s the deal folks; if you’re on the “short stack”, the guy with the “big stack” more often than not is going to win. Most of us little guys are on the “short stack” playing against hedge funds and trading desks that are firmly in control of this market. Please examine the 5 minute chart below and you’ll see what’s going on clearly.
Today the day begins with some impressive selling volume which dries up around 11 AM. Then all is quiet. “Da Boyz” with the “big stack” toss some chips in [buy orders] and start probing for any resistance. Finding none, they toss in some larger bets just before 1 PM. After meeting little selling, they make larger bets and then wait to see if any “short stack” sellers try to fade their play. Again there is none and they go “all in” around 2:45 PM causing a full blown short squeeze into the close.
http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php
Tuesday November 14, 2006
Previous | Archives
MARKET COMMENT
November 14, 2006
Here’s the deal folks; if you’re on the “short stack”, the guy with the “big stack” more often than not is going to win. Most of us little guys are on the “short stack” playing against hedge funds and trading desks that are firmly in control of this market. Please examine the 5 minute chart below and you’ll see what’s going on clearly.
Today the day begins with some impressive selling volume which dries up around 11 AM. Then all is quiet. “Da Boyz” with the “big stack” toss some chips in [buy orders] and start probing for any resistance. Finding none, they toss in some larger bets just before 1 PM. After meeting little selling, they make larger bets and then wait to see if any “short stack” sellers try to fade their play. Again there is none and they go “all in” around 2:45 PM causing a full blown short squeeze into the close.
http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php
Griffin
Well-known member
Robo,
Good read and supports my thoughts. I'm moving to the G today.
The dollar once again punched below support, but recovered quickly. As Tom said yesterday, once is ok. However, a second hit makes me suspicious that it will happen again....and since I am going to be out of the office all day, I'm hoping that happens today. The dollar is currently spiking, so I'm counting on a reversal later in the day.
We have seen several options expiration weeks this year have a mid week spike only to sell off at the end. Futures are slightly down currently but small movements in futures provide little guidance on the direction of the market for the day.
Based on the way things look at the moment, I'm expecting a relatively mild day ending slightly positive. You'll know, I won't...good luck today.
Good read and supports my thoughts. I'm moving to the G today.
The dollar once again punched below support, but recovered quickly. As Tom said yesterday, once is ok. However, a second hit makes me suspicious that it will happen again....and since I am going to be out of the office all day, I'm hoping that happens today. The dollar is currently spiking, so I'm counting on a reversal later in the day.
We have seen several options expiration weeks this year have a mid week spike only to sell off at the end. Futures are slightly down currently but small movements in futures provide little guidance on the direction of the market for the day.
Based on the way things look at the moment, I'm expecting a relatively mild day ending slightly positive. You'll know, I won't...good luck today.
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