Some Market Comments:
Can the Bulls pull off one more rally? I think the next move could be a rally.
How much? No more then 1390. In my opinion this will happen starting next week and peak quickly. The Market action continues to show support, but behind the scenes things are starting to get ugly. How many down days for the rock last week? ( The DOW has been the Rock )
Resistance for the Bulls has been tough lately. I'm not sure if they are out of powder here or the data the last week has stopped the buying.
Behind the scenes there is some distribution taking place. The Bulls will tell you Sector Rotation. Maybe both are taking place.
The risk is high and upside potential may be limited after the data we received last week.
The Market held on again Friday. ( DOW around 12000 has been holding and S&P 1360 holding strong) Know this, plenty of profits were made the last 3 months and Big Hedge Funds will not sit by and watch profits be sold off.
Remember, they have locked in profits here on paper.
I don't know if we will get a Stampede, but the risk is there. However, things could just chop around and drift up again. My point caution here if you have an active account as many of us do!
On the other hand, Birchtree could have it right and we head to 1450 by the end of the year.
Again, In my opinion, I think the next couple of months are flat and this Market needs a rest. However, you just never know, and we could just keep climbing the wall of worry. You are more likely to climb the wall of worry when you know what's on the other side. After last weeks revision of data I don't have a good feel for the wall structure, or how high it will be, and for sure I don't know whats on the other side.
I can say this, if I had Birchtree's money I would be on a cruise using my laptop for posts at ports.
Trading oil and gold lately! Trading with a small long position in the S&P 500 and looking to sell rallies. May short soon! In the G Fund for now in TSP account.
The Commitment of Traders indicates the "smart money" is Hedging Big Time.
This is another warning sign and why some TA's and some traders are more netural short-term with some cash on hand.
I have been watching Bulls and Bears on Fox. It's on 2 hours ever Saturday.
It's entertainment to me, almost hilarious. I guess I shouldn't worry. It seems we should all go out and Buy Monday after lisentening to the experts. Mostly they just agrue about politics. Better then Saturday morning cartoons.
You see they are already long in the Market. The only way they can make additional gains is to convince you to do the same. The Bulls are like car salesmen now. Do I have a deal for you! These stocks are cheap now, trust me the price is going way up on this Baby and you need to buy today Mr. Sixpack. Ok, I'll take it! Hey, it could turn out to be true, but I'm holding out for bigger sale. I could be wrong and as Birchtree always comments, "You will have to pay up more later." That's ok, you see I have a good used car,
( G Fund ) it runs good and meets my goals. I will soon rent a G35 and speed down the highway, I just don't want to have accident or a crash when I rent it.
Take Care and Good Investing/Trading!
All noise for buy and hold folks, Stay the course and enjoy the ride! No sell signal from the long term crew I follow. Bob, Henry, Don, and Steve all sitting tight with the big Birchtree. These Newsletter guys or most excellent long-term investors with excellent invesment records. All still long!
If your buying this Baby at these prices you better be dollar cost averaging my friend with new money!!!
