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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
A few thoughts for the future as this bull kicks into overdrive.
Some strategists and currency managers attribute the dollar's newfound strength in part to encouraging US economic data and worsening rconomic and political reports from Europe. They also cite a pause in the speculation that China is about to revalue its currency. Such speculation has been a source of downward pressure on the dollar.
Long-term structural issues, such nas the trade deficit, still bedevil the US currency. But a stronger dollar has an upside for the economy. It could ease concerns abiut US inflation by reducing the cost of imports. A stronger currency also makes US stocks and bonds more attractive to international investors.
We may actually be heading for a yield shortage for returns on fixed accounts in this country. Back to CD rates of 2%. The only game in town may end up being stocks and at present they are undervalued and underowned. Classic history for a big bull move ahead - so many will miss it- I can't save the investing public.
A few thoughts for the future as this bull kicks into overdrive.
Some strategists and currency managers attribute the dollar's newfound strength in part to encouraging US economic data and worsening rconomic and political reports from Europe. They also cite a pause in the speculation that China is about to revalue its currency. Such speculation has been a source of downward pressure on the dollar.
Long-term structural issues, such nas the trade deficit, still bedevil the US currency. But a stronger dollar has an upside for the economy. It could ease concerns abiut US inflation by reducing the cost of imports. A stronger currency also makes US stocks and bonds more attractive to international investors.
We may actually be heading for a yield shortage for returns on fixed accounts in this country. Back to CD rates of 2%. The only game in town may end up being stocks and at present they are undervalued and underowned. Classic history for a big bull move ahead - so many will miss it- I can't save the investing public.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Palladin,
Have gun-will travel.
The trader wants to cash out at the top, grabbing profits on everything and sitting back with a clean slate; the investor understands the value of patience, knowing the truly big money is made in the long cycles. Only time will tell - time has come today.
Palladin,
Have gun-will travel.
The trader wants to cash out at the top, grabbing profits on everything and sitting back with a clean slate; the investor understands the value of patience, knowing the truly big money is made in the long cycles. Only time will tell - time has come today.
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
just so u understand, i recognize that u have a lot of history dealing with the market and i fully appreciate your position.
make no mistake my friend, your views are very reasonable in my opinion. if i wasn't trying totime the market i'd be in the c, s and i funds right now. hey...one out ofthree ain't bad, right?
just so u understand, i recognize that u have a lot of history dealing with the market and i fully appreciate your position.
make no mistake my friend, your views are very reasonable in my opinion. if i wasn't trying totime the market i'd be in the c, s and i funds right now. hey...one out ofthree ain't bad, right?
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Birchtree wrote:
Today was a correction. The market was too close to the channel top (resistance). A correction was in order! The channel range is still intact.
Oil could be a problem, again. Ever time it gets above 55, the worry changes to jitters. Otherwise an item to keep sharp watch on, at present.
The fundamentals are still good and the technical indicators are still good! The market is getting close to overbought, but still within an acceptable range. The MACD needs a close watch for any drastic change, but it, so far is hanging bullish.
I see a lot of folks going to the G-fund. Did I miss something, or is this just profit taking?
Spaf
Birchtree wrote:
Agree!
Today was a correction. The market was too close to the channel top (resistance). A correction was in order! The channel range is still intact.
Oil could be a problem, again. Ever time it gets above 55, the worry changes to jitters. Otherwise an item to keep sharp watch on, at present.
The fundamentals are still good and the technical indicators are still good! The market is getting close to overbought, but still within an acceptable range. The MACD needs a close watch for any drastic change, but it, so far is hanging bullish.
I see a lot of folks going to the G-fund. Did I miss something, or is this just profit taking?
Spaf
Mike
Active member
imported post
Spaf wrote:
Spaf wrote:
I don't know why the rest did it. As for me, it was based on a lot of data which is turning against the market continuing on upward in the short term. Oil shot past $55, the payroll report was a major disappointment to the downside, and investor sentiment is simply not good (herd bullish / smart money bearish). Manufacturing data continues to show weakness, and the cost of labor shot up last month.Birchtree wrote:Agree!
Today was a correction. The market was too close to the channel top (resistance). A correction was in order! The channel range is still intact.
Oil could be a problem, again. Ever time it gets above 55, the worry changes to jitters. Otherwise an item to keep sharp watch on, at present.
The fundamentals are still good and the technical indicators are still good! The market is getting close to overbought, but still within an acceptable range. The MACD needs a close watch for any drastic change, but it, so far is hanging bullish.
I see a lot of folks going to the G-fund. Did I miss something, or is this just profit taking?
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
It is becoming more evident with the participation of 8,500 hedge funds that the professional stock pickers are having difficulty thinking long term. They are finding it hard to ignore every economic blip, thus creating swings in stock prices. Fewer fund managers are in the long term holding category, instead allowing themselves to be swayed by each new bit of data. Improved technology has led to advanced stock screening tools, readier access to information and increased electronic trading - all of which have led to shorter holding periods for stock. Bailing out of a position on bad news only to buy back the next month when the news turns good again has never been so easy. My outside oceanliner has experienced this nervousness recently.
Today I would like to offer a few good reasons why in time the C fund will outshine the S fund in the not to distant future. Remember these cycle shifts take time.
Growth stocks have been so ignored for so long (5 years) that they are now relative bargains. Typically, investors have to pay a premium to buy such stocks, by definition, growth companies are expected to post earnings that are growing faster than the overall market. Fund managers are finding it so hard to locate traditional value stocks that they are instead migrating into quality growth stocks which they say now offer value. As I proceed you will begin to think I'm talking out both sides of my mouth, and that's because I am. Trying to cover the bases.
Growth stocks traditionally have come from 3 broad sectors: health care, consumer staples and technology. The first two are considered defensive plays, because they are largely insulated from the economy's swings. Technology stocks are also growth-oriented though much less defensive. Value stocks, meanwhile, have historically come out of the industrial, commodity, financial, basic-material and consumer discretionary sectors, all of which are more susceptible to the economy's swings.
Despite this professional shift, small investors (me) continue to put their faith in value. They are taking money out of growth funds, continuing a trend that's been going on for years. Growth oriented investors say that's s sign individuals are looking in the rearview mirror and chasing values superior returns of the past few years. My outside account continues to be overexposed to basic-material and industrial sector companies. And I have no plans to reduce that exposure - that's one reason I'm not in the S fund in TSP- got plenty exposure already. I will be adding more growth going forward to balance things out. Buying above average businesses at average prices is just as much value investing as is buying average businesses at below average prices. As overall corporate profit growth moderates growth stocks are likely to post earnings that will stand out. Growth stocks are trading cheaper than they normally do versus the market, while traditional value stocks are more expensive relative to the market than has been seen in years. Look at the price difference between C fund and S fund.
It is becoming more evident with the participation of 8,500 hedge funds that the professional stock pickers are having difficulty thinking long term. They are finding it hard to ignore every economic blip, thus creating swings in stock prices. Fewer fund managers are in the long term holding category, instead allowing themselves to be swayed by each new bit of data. Improved technology has led to advanced stock screening tools, readier access to information and increased electronic trading - all of which have led to shorter holding periods for stock. Bailing out of a position on bad news only to buy back the next month when the news turns good again has never been so easy. My outside oceanliner has experienced this nervousness recently.
Today I would like to offer a few good reasons why in time the C fund will outshine the S fund in the not to distant future. Remember these cycle shifts take time.
Growth stocks have been so ignored for so long (5 years) that they are now relative bargains. Typically, investors have to pay a premium to buy such stocks, by definition, growth companies are expected to post earnings that are growing faster than the overall market. Fund managers are finding it so hard to locate traditional value stocks that they are instead migrating into quality growth stocks which they say now offer value. As I proceed you will begin to think I'm talking out both sides of my mouth, and that's because I am. Trying to cover the bases.
Growth stocks traditionally have come from 3 broad sectors: health care, consumer staples and technology. The first two are considered defensive plays, because they are largely insulated from the economy's swings. Technology stocks are also growth-oriented though much less defensive. Value stocks, meanwhile, have historically come out of the industrial, commodity, financial, basic-material and consumer discretionary sectors, all of which are more susceptible to the economy's swings.
Despite this professional shift, small investors (me) continue to put their faith in value. They are taking money out of growth funds, continuing a trend that's been going on for years. Growth oriented investors say that's s sign individuals are looking in the rearview mirror and chasing values superior returns of the past few years. My outside account continues to be overexposed to basic-material and industrial sector companies. And I have no plans to reduce that exposure - that's one reason I'm not in the S fund in TSP- got plenty exposure already. I will be adding more growth going forward to balance things out. Buying above average businesses at average prices is just as much value investing as is buying average businesses at below average prices. As overall corporate profit growth moderates growth stocks are likely to post earnings that will stand out. Growth stocks are trading cheaper than they normally do versus the market, while traditional value stocks are more expensive relative to the market than has been seen in years. Look at the price difference between C fund and S fund.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Birchtree wrote:
C fund would be considered a value fund or a blend fund a best.
S Fund is the growth stocks.
You are contridicting yourself.
Birchtree wrote:
Hmmm.
C fund would be considered a value fund or a blend fund a best.
S Fund is the growth stocks.
You are contridicting yourself.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
DMA,
Please- I thought the S fund more or less was equivalent to the Russell 2000 small cap fund and the C fund was more or less equivalent to the sp500 large cap fund.
Perhaps it is semantics again, at any rate you will probably miss most of the upcoming rally afraid to come out of the G fund. Stay in the C and S for awhile so you can get right on the curve and right on the the price. Do you agree this takes work?
Besides, I had the impression you weren't going to interact with this bull anymore. Why is there a price difference between the C and S fund? They probably started on initial introduction at the same price- equally balanced with the same type of divisor. Good to stay clear of the I fund unless you want to accumulate - it's almost impossible to gunsling with that entity. See you my good man at higher prices by the end of the week. Oh, by the way not to BRAG, but I made money every day this week in the oceanliner account - even more or less in the tug boat account.
DMA,
Please- I thought the S fund more or less was equivalent to the Russell 2000 small cap fund and the C fund was more or less equivalent to the sp500 large cap fund.
Perhaps it is semantics again, at any rate you will probably miss most of the upcoming rally afraid to come out of the G fund. Stay in the C and S for awhile so you can get right on the curve and right on the the price. Do you agree this takes work?
Besides, I had the impression you weren't going to interact with this bull anymore. Why is there a price difference between the C and S fund? They probably started on initial introduction at the same price- equally balanced with the same type of divisor. Good to stay clear of the I fund unless you want to accumulate - it's almost impossible to gunsling with that entity. See you my good man at higher prices by the end of the week. Oh, by the way not to BRAG, but I made money every day this week in the oceanliner account - even more or less in the tug boat account.
Dogdaddy
Member
imported post
Hey Guys: I'm not sure either one of you is exactly correct. Value or growth has nothing to do with it...only capitalization.:
IndexFamily:[/b]
Dow Jones Wilshire Broad Market Indexes
IndexName:[/b]
The Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Completion Index
class=regular
Measures the performance of all small and mid-cap stocks. It is constructed using the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 securities with the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index removed. The approximately 4,500 capitalization weighted returns provide an excellent benchmark for "extended" fund managers. The Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 was created December 31, 1983.
Hey Guys: I'm not sure either one of you is exactly correct. Value or growth has nothing to do with it...only capitalization.:
IndexFamily:[/b]
Dow Jones Wilshire Broad Market Indexes
IndexName:[/b]
The Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Completion Index
class=regular
Measures the performance of all small and mid-cap stocks. It is constructed using the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 securities with the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index removed. The approximately 4,500 capitalization weighted returns provide an excellent benchmark for "extended" fund managers. The Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 was created December 31, 1983.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Diverified?
The index is comprised primarily of U.S.-based companies. The S&P 500 has significant liquidity requirements for its components, so some large, thinly traded companies are ineligible for inclusion. Because the index gives more weight to larger companies, it tends to reflect the price movement of a fairly small number of stocks.
It represents 70% of all U.S. publicly traded companies.
It is a large value to large blend fund.
It is no shape or form to be consideredagrowth fund.
Diverified?
The index is comprised primarily of U.S.-based companies. The S&P 500 has significant liquidity requirements for its components, so some large, thinly traded companies are ineligible for inclusion. Because the index gives more weight to larger companies, it tends to reflect the price movement of a fairly small number of stocks.
It represents 70% of all U.S. publicly traded companies.
It is a large value to large blend fund.
It is no shape or form to be consideredagrowth fund.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Dogdaddy wrote:
Dog thanks.
"I thought the S fund more or less was equivalent to the Russell 2000 small cap fund."
If we can grasp the index then we can grasp the reasons for investing in the funds.
Dogdaddy wrote:
Hey Guys: I'm not sure either one of you is exactly correct. Value or growth has nothing to do with it...only capitalization.:
IndexFamily:[/b]
Dow Jones Wilshire Broad Market Indexes
IndexName:[/b]
The Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Completion Index
class=regular
Measures the performance of all small and mid-cap stocks. It is constructed using the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 securities with the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index removed. The approximately 4,500 capitalization weighted returns provide an excellent benchmark for "extended" fund managers. The Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 was created December 31, 1983.
Dog thanks.
"I thought the S fund more or less was equivalent to the Russell 2000 small cap fund."
If we can grasp the index then we can grasp the reasons for investing in the funds.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Birchtree wrote:
I am truly nutty that way.
Birchtree wrote:
Have to butt in when you are telling a 60 year old to go 100% into stocks.
I am truly nutty that way.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Birchtree wrote:
Birchtree wrote:
Who is Betsy?
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
greg wrote:
However, I may be wrong.
greg wrote:
I believe Betsy is a termed used when you are back to even.
However, I may be wrong.
Dogdaddy
Member
imported post
DMA wrote:
Membership
The company’s primary issue for index valuation is determined based on the following criteria:
DMA wrote:
More on the S Fund, if anyone is interested.........[/b][/b]
Dog thanks.
"I thought the S fund more or less was equivalent to the Russell 2000 small cap fund."
If we can grasp the index then we can grasp the reasons for investing in the funds.
Membership
- An equity issue: a common stock, REIT or limited partnership.
- A U.S.-headquartered company.
- A security that has its primary market listing in the U.S.
The company’s primary issue for index valuation is determined based on the following criteria:
- Market capitalization
- Trading volume
- Institutional holdings
- Conversion rules (for companies with multiple share classes)
- The indexes are weighted by both full market capitalization and float-adjusted market capitalization.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Great info on the tsp site also.
Could be a good first place start.
Have a good weekend.
Great info on the tsp site also.
Could be a good first place start.
Have a good weekend.
G
Guest
Guest
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