Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

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DMA,

I did considerable buying on the tripple bottom of 7/02, 10/02, and 3/03. That was a great time to really enjoy the pain the Bears were delivering - but unfortunately even the bad times must come to an end - the next 3000 Dow points until 1/04 provided me some sweet raspberry gains. Both the oceanliner and the tug boat profitted well indeed. Now on constant vigilance for the next move up from our current 900 point correction - it could possibly happen gradually or could be explosive. I prefer gradual but must be prepared for explosive. Don't you remember the first 1000 points made essentially in 3 days back in July02 off that first bottom? Or again off the October 02 bottom - essentially the same thing. I've been strapped in and ready to go if it happens - and from a classical bull market move - no one is anticipating any kind of move- just channel surfing. I'll take the $100,000 it will give me and be quiet about it. Were you around during the 1982 market explosion starting in 8/02? That was some kind of move - professional money fought it all the way up. Just like you will do if it happens again - you gotta see some good in the world - not be a pragmatist all the time. Take off the Bears coat and go naked for awhile - it sheds a different light - like visiting a nudist colony.

 

[Guest]

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In hindsight we are experts.

You caught all the bottoms huh?

Took a lot ofguts to say when the DOW was up 118 last week that the rally would not last to the close....did not hear you comment on that one.

What has changed in your investing habits where you are buying at the top now?


BTW: I have more in my TSP then you have all together so you can put the oceanliner in dry dock.

 

[Birchtree]

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DMA,

You have a valid point - I probably said something like micturate on it. Try for another day and watch out for the head fakes - noone ever said this was an easy game. Actually I did make gains every day last week - and would be simply delighted if I could do the same this week. Lots of good energy in the fold, as well as utilities and transports. Before you jump on the transports, I know they have been weak, not fully recovered yet, but the will. Country needs trucks and trains to support this healthy economic expansion. What kind of pistols do you use?

Dennis

 

[Birchtree]

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DMA,

You have more in your TSP account than I have in my oceanliner and tugboat combined! My good man you must be olderthan dirt - or should be retired by now. I apologize for my incorrect thinking - when you were crying about that 17K missing from the I fund I misunderstood. I thought you were in agony - now I see you were just mildly complaining. That's fine - why don't you stick your numbers out there for your friends to view. I do it because I'm humble and into all types of pain. But the possibility of recovery is my game. C'mon show us your stuff - MM - are you ready for this unveiling.

 

[Guest]

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OK. I am about done with this.

The reality is if you take GM and WMT (short squeeze) out of the DOW and S&P 500 the market was down pretty hard today.

A short squeeze rally, if you call S&P 500 up 3, is not a positive rally.

It is a bearish rally. Good luck. My advice is to turn CNBS off. That does not count as research that counts as brain washing.

:^

 

[The_Technician]

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"Larry Kudlow and Elaine Garrazarelli on my side. OK DMA have fun with them - but remember I'll be waiting at higher levels. Good luck"

Oh Gee Birch....Elaine???? I remember her hey day...yea she pushed and pushed and pushed the market, then bang she dissapeared after the market crashed.....guess she did her job.....and Larry??......so are youa market maker yourself, orthose two just on your side sitting next to you......eh, or do you just get paid to post????? :shock:

Elaines appearance...wasasa puppet ......just like the rest of those analyst that show up on the tube.....wonder who believes them now.......I think the
American investment has gotten wind of the liberal media and their antics....:^

Under these circumstances shouldpeople be invested???? NO!.....one should check in all the "knowledgeable" references and use a little common sense.......and by far stay away from the liberal media.....its just a sales ad for their constituents holdings......they are selling high, just like used auto salesmen.....maybe CNBC and other liberal stations should advertise themselves as medicine miracle workers, or Used stock salesmen......gee, its not like they don't have alot of airway to sell miracles!!!

One of the ploys I have seen in the past....before 2000 is the Market Makers pay people to post touting stocks.....you must be on the lookout for the stupid and illogical reasons some individualsuse to tout the stocks.....be aware!!!

Please everyone, if you think that high energy costs, interest rates and market PE's make sound investment data, go read a book......certainly, don't get confused with snake oil salesmen....they seem to prey on the uninformed......



:dude:

 

[Guest]

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Little know fact.

This "experts" pay CNBS to be on their show.

Sheeple watch them CNBS and thenopen accounts with them because of their great advice.

Worse then a used car salesman.

Notice Kudlow rotates the same 6 raging bulls.

Now you know why.

 

[Birchtree]

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DMA,

Gee peeto, I didn't even know there were 6 raging bulls - count me as number 7 because I'm ready for a strong breakout soon, give me liftoff or please give me more sideways consolidation - this is sweet. Another nice A/D line today.

Folks, I'm coming back later with some BULLISH coments regarding VIX. But first I need to follow my Bear friends to see if just maybe they have something with teeth.

 

[Guest]

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Yeah we are reading your posts on the other board and are PMing ourfingers off about your melting up comments.

Be careful that board they know what they are talking about. They are hard core traders. They trade 24 hours a day like me.

The have you on a string. You are free to run here.

Just a bit of advice. Since you are a member of this board I will tell you that.

You were a big hit this morning. I had to leave I was getting up to 5 PMs a minute talking about your comments.

 

[Birchtree]

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My fair fellow - you are kidding me right- tickling my sides - curling my toes. No one is that important to waste precious time on pms, please. But if they lack cohesion then so be it - just don't be overly nice. Now for a few moments on VIX.

Currently, the VIX is near historically low levels (1140 versus 1800 on 4/18/05), suggesting the market is not yet anticipating weakness or turmoil as measured through volatility. Therefore, there exists an inverse relationship between VIX and the underlying index - Dow Jones Industrials - in our example. As the VIX falls, markets tend to rally. As the VIX rallies (increasing fear) markets tend to fall. Remember 4/20 bottom 10,006? Given the recent trend of a declining VIX, the market has created a classic bullish divergence - hence giving us a healthy consolidation of the last 5 trading days in the face of a falling VIX.

A week of sideways price action in both the sp500 and Dow Jones 30, is a healthy sign for the broad market. The propensity for the market to consolidate in the direction of the trend is far greater than a reversal. Spaf tells us we are still in a primary bull trend - and I believe we are just that. The market is acting quite well providing a firm foundation to rally strongly from. There is an upside breakout on the way. When andhow far are the next questions to be answered - but I don't know.

For my many bear friends that pm each other - here is a tid bit. The Elliot Wave people will tell you from a bearish perspective that the market is dealing with a Fibonnnacci (61.8) major retracement mark and the market will consequently break to the downside- good guess on that one.

 

[Birchtree]

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All,

Fewer bulls left in the pasture these days - more grass for those of us who remain. I know I cleared over $35,000 this week - will provide update on Monday.

DMA says that he is 80% short his net worth come Monday - looking to buy i n at lower prices and make a profit. If the market continues to rally, especially in a lift off mode - he is essentially toast. He will need more than Paxil to get straight.

Ferdinand fears neither the Fed or the dollar. The dollar needs to correct back some to continue helping our exporters. Bullish and ready for more next week.

Manufacturers in the US boosted their foreign direct investment 92% last year, setting a record and underscoring their increasing reliance on global markets for continued growth. Total foreign direct investment by US manufacturers is estimated at $54 billion in 2004, up from $28 billion in 2003, ending 3 consecutive years of stagnation. Foreign direct investment comes in several forms including profits made by foreign subsidiaries of US companies that are permantly invested abroad. Companies also lend money to their foreign subsidiaries to expand or upgrade existing operations.

Sure was nice to see the rebound in commodity stocks as well as more activity in the Transports. The pad has a strong foundation capable of supporting a rocket type liftoff if the time is right.

 

[Spaf]

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Birchtree wrote:

Sure was nice to see the rebound in commodity stocks as well as more activity in the Transports. The pad has a strong foundation capable of supporting a rocket type liftoff if the time is right.

Birch ... Ya shure U don't want to wait till rocket fuel is cheaper? Hope U have a safe lift off! Will be watching from G-TV! Spaf

 

[Guest]

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I was told I would be toasted the first weekof January.

If that is toasted, pleasepass the butter.

 

[Guest]

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Birchtree wrote:

All,

Fewer bulls left in the pasture these days

53% bulls 20% bears now.

Start of the month 47% bulls 25% bears.

Are you looking in the right pasture?

 

[Mike]

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TSPTalk sentiment this past week was mostly bearish/neutral. He's probably referring to that.

Prediction everyone can take to the bank: I'll continue to look dumb as a post until the pullback finally hits. :l

 

[Guest]

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Oh yeah forgot about that poll .

 

[Guest]

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Actually do we have two weeks of data to compare all ready?

If so, where is that located? I rooted around with no luck.

 

[Dave M]

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BT, here is my analysis of our relative positions. Assume our total fund balances are equal. (Not true, I know.) I have 1/3rd of my total invested, you have 3/3rds. Numerically, sincea 1-point rise equates to $10 for me, then it is $30 for you. However I have 2/3rds in the G-fund, where a 1-point rise equates to $100 for me.

Therefore, if the marketrises by 5 points in a week, you will get $150 and I will get $50 plus the 1-point rise in the G-fund for another $100, and our returns are equal. Any gain beyond 5 points in a week and you will out-perform me. Any gain less than 5 points in a week and I will out-perform you. In any losing situation where the weekly change is negative, you will lose more than I.

Consider that we are each on a straight line. Yours is Gain = 30X, where X=market gain/loss. Mine is Gain = 10X + 100. Solve these simultaneously and X = 5, as I said above. Your slope is three times mine, but I have a y-intercept of 100 when X = 0.

So the question is, what is X going to be? When X is small (<5) or negative, I do better. When X is large (>5) you will do better.I hesitate to bet on large, sustained rises; my first priority is to limit losses.

When I say "market" I mean [(F+C+S+I) times 100] for me, Cx100 for you, since you are 100C and I am spread evenly across all the funds. Also I recognize that our account balances differ greatly, so the above relates to percentage gain/loss although I have used real-world numbers to derive it.

Dave

 

[tsptalk]

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DMA wrote:

Actually do we have two weeks of data to compare all ready?

If so, where is that located? I rooted around with no luck.

I put a new poll on the home page (http://www.tsptalk.com) but I also emailed it to those who signed up to get by email.

By the way, there were only 19% bears, compared to 48% bulls,in the last AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. Not a positive for the market, and certainly not the numbers a contrarian who is bullish wants to see. So I'm confused byBirchtree'sexcitement and his statement "Fewer bulls left in the pasture these days - more grass for those of us who remain".

Birch? Why are you so bullish when the herd is so bullish? Why do you say there are fewer bulls? From TSP Talk's poll? Just curious. Thanks.

Last week was a victory for the bulls 4 sure but the market is quite frothy and the risk reward short termis not great.

 

[Guest]

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tsptalk wrote:

DMA wrote:

Actually do we have two weeks of data to compare all ready?

If so, where is that located? I rooted around with no luck.

Why do you say there are fewer bulls?

I would LOVE to know the answer to this also. I use sendiment numbers very heavy to make my investment decisions. They provide a very clear picture of the future and will keep you from running off the cliff with the rest of the herd.

I do not appreciate this at all:

Birchtree wrote:

All,

Fewer bulls left in the pasture these days - more grass for those of us who remain.

Misinformation to me is horrible.

I am not trying to start a flame war. I am stating that if you post misinformation this board will become useless to ALL that are trying to make investment decisions.

I would rather not have to spend the time to fact check each and every post however since I use sendiment numbers (and am smiling very heavy because I am now short the market) this was clearl apost that was in error and is misinformation. Last time the sediment numbers where this high on the service I use it was the last week of March - April did not turn out so hot.

Thank you.