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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Mlk-man,
I notice you are still in the S fund. You didn't get the lower price you were looking for but that is really immaterial-the fact is you are in. The question is how long will you stay-those feet like to keep moving-I know. See if you can hold out until $15. Don't forget your payroll contribution, that will too. Heck, maybe you'll stay until you reach $16. If you have $133,000 working you can make some jack. It will be hard on you not to listen to the negativity of the prowling BEARS. If you can stay awhile, it becomes easier once you get profitable-just remember you will be making it they won't. Being defensive usually means treading water-no gains, no losses.
If the market backs up you become an automatic looser-but only temporarily. And loosers love company-you'll have me for a companion. People on the board will call you foolish-your wife will call you worse. She will wonder why you are taking such risks-going through midlife crises-tell her that you are doing it for her. Because someday it will be all hers.
Mlk-man,
I notice you are still in the S fund. You didn't get the lower price you were looking for but that is really immaterial-the fact is you are in. The question is how long will you stay-those feet like to keep moving-I know. See if you can hold out until $15. Don't forget your payroll contribution, that will too. Heck, maybe you'll stay until you reach $16. If you have $133,000 working you can make some jack. It will be hard on you not to listen to the negativity of the prowling BEARS. If you can stay awhile, it becomes easier once you get profitable-just remember you will be making it they won't. Being defensive usually means treading water-no gains, no losses.
If the market backs up you become an automatic looser-but only temporarily. And loosers love company-you'll have me for a companion. People on the board will call you foolish-your wife will call you worse. She will wonder why you are taking such risks-going through midlife crises-tell her that you are doing it for her. Because someday it will be all hers.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Veteran,
It was nice to hear from today. I am also an RN and an RRT and an Army Vietnam Veteran. As you will come to understand the market is an open opportunity available to everyone. It can act as a great equalizer in helping to build wealth. To me investing is more art than science-if it were a science with set answers like in math, everyone would be a winner. There are a lot of TA people looking for a system they can follow to predict movements to gain an advantage. That's fine, I like to read their analysis because sometimes they can be prescient.
So don't believe for a minute that you are outgunned by others on this board who may or may not have more indepth knowledge. Only the money does the walk-talk is free. You obviously had the good forsight to be in the C fund all those years, that was good common sense and strategic planning. You had the advantage of using dollar cost averaging with your contributions, by assuming your graduated risk factors, you received the rewards. The first law of finance is: it takes money to make money. The more funds you have at stake the larger the risk, the larger the risk you assume, the larger the potential gain. Now some smart bear (yogi) will remind us that we also can loose-da!
Veteran,
It was nice to hear from today. I am also an RN and an RRT and an Army Vietnam Veteran. As you will come to understand the market is an open opportunity available to everyone. It can act as a great equalizer in helping to build wealth. To me investing is more art than science-if it were a science with set answers like in math, everyone would be a winner. There are a lot of TA people looking for a system they can follow to predict movements to gain an advantage. That's fine, I like to read their analysis because sometimes they can be prescient.
So don't believe for a minute that you are outgunned by others on this board who may or may not have more indepth knowledge. Only the money does the walk-talk is free. You obviously had the good forsight to be in the C fund all those years, that was good common sense and strategic planning. You had the advantage of using dollar cost averaging with your contributions, by assuming your graduated risk factors, you received the rewards. The first law of finance is: it takes money to make money. The more funds you have at stake the larger the risk, the larger the risk you assume, the larger the potential gain. Now some smart bear (yogi) will remind us that we also can loose-da!
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Rod wrote:
Rod, I don't understand the thread at all so I really don't know how to react. But I want to get paid if you're using my name to get good publicity.
Rod wrote:
Birchtree wrote:Wonder Woman???:shock::x:shock: Sorry WW (wherever you may be) ... I just couldn't resist.Hey Tom, I think you need to edit this one too...
:dude::^:dude:
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Veteran,
The important variable to keep in mind is to know if you are on the right side of the curve-are we in an uptrend and if so will it be prolonged. AS an example during the tech boom I shrank from the hype and stayed in the small cap arena-they were my shelter primarily because no one wanted them back then. I'm a contrarian my gut said that was where I should hide and I did. When the techs were crashing the small caps were in full rally mode-that lasted for at least 5 years. You were buying the C fund all the way down from it's top, see how smart you were-now you have even more shares and they didn't cost you that much.
I believe we are getting set for another secular bull market. All the industry talking heads say we are in a cyclicle bull market that is getting on in age. There has never been a back to back secular bull market in history. And we have never sent that many rag heads to heaven since the Crusades-get my drift-things change. The first secular bull actually started in 1982-and I was there. I made money off that bottom, but a lot of market type people did'nt believe it was happening. Over $300,000 in a mere ten months-couldn't sleep, or eat, had the Midas touch-but it didn't last-finally gave up 50% of it over the next 18 months, I looked for a 6 month correction and it refused to turn-finally did in 11/84. My wife would ask-why didn't you sell. The answer was simple-the tax was at 50% back then. I think that was when I began my training program as a contrarian-learned a lot by making my own mistakes.
Veteran,
The important variable to keep in mind is to know if you are on the right side of the curve-are we in an uptrend and if so will it be prolonged. AS an example during the tech boom I shrank from the hype and stayed in the small cap arena-they were my shelter primarily because no one wanted them back then. I'm a contrarian my gut said that was where I should hide and I did. When the techs were crashing the small caps were in full rally mode-that lasted for at least 5 years. You were buying the C fund all the way down from it's top, see how smart you were-now you have even more shares and they didn't cost you that much.
I believe we are getting set for another secular bull market. All the industry talking heads say we are in a cyclicle bull market that is getting on in age. There has never been a back to back secular bull market in history. And we have never sent that many rag heads to heaven since the Crusades-get my drift-things change. The first secular bull actually started in 1982-and I was there. I made money off that bottom, but a lot of market type people did'nt believe it was happening. Over $300,000 in a mere ten months-couldn't sleep, or eat, had the Midas touch-but it didn't last-finally gave up 50% of it over the next 18 months, I looked for a 6 month correction and it refused to turn-finally did in 11/84. My wife would ask-why didn't you sell. The answer was simple-the tax was at 50% back then. I think that was when I began my training program as a contrarian-learned a lot by making my own mistakes.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Veteran,
When you decide to go in all bore and assume risk, it will certainly come your way and take you to task. You end up having to deal with all this volatility that goes on out there-not to mention the 50 million Frenchman that try to run things their way-they are the herd. Fortunately they are wrong more than correct. A few examples may illustrate(you didn't know you were going to get a history lesson today) that was the risk you took when you contacted the renegade in me. Just hold on.
I got a very nice hair cut with the 1987 market crash-I actually stayed home from work the next day and kept my fingers on the trigger ready to cut and run. Hell even then I knew it was absolute foolishness-I refused to run and eventually was redeemed. You might ask can that happen again-no, there are built in safe guards that allow emotional traders to use the restroom instead of their pants. I got another hair cut in 1997 during the Thai batt crises, got another hair cut in 1998 during the Russian ruble crises, and got another one in 2001 during the 9/11 crises. After surviving all that I'm still accumulating asets. Then I rode the triple bottoms of 7/02, 10/02, and 3/03, what a great time to buy. That is exactly what you were doing-I bet your wife knows what a smart guy you are-someday it will be all hers.
Veteran,
When you decide to go in all bore and assume risk, it will certainly come your way and take you to task. You end up having to deal with all this volatility that goes on out there-not to mention the 50 million Frenchman that try to run things their way-they are the herd. Fortunately they are wrong more than correct. A few examples may illustrate(you didn't know you were going to get a history lesson today) that was the risk you took when you contacted the renegade in me. Just hold on.
I got a very nice hair cut with the 1987 market crash-I actually stayed home from work the next day and kept my fingers on the trigger ready to cut and run. Hell even then I knew it was absolute foolishness-I refused to run and eventually was redeemed. You might ask can that happen again-no, there are built in safe guards that allow emotional traders to use the restroom instead of their pants. I got another hair cut in 1997 during the Thai batt crises, got another hair cut in 1998 during the Russian ruble crises, and got another one in 2001 during the 9/11 crises. After surviving all that I'm still accumulating asets. Then I rode the triple bottoms of 7/02, 10/02, and 3/03, what a great time to buy. That is exactly what you were doing-I bet your wife knows what a smart guy you are-someday it will be all hers.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Veteran,
Going forward we will both have the same problem. The larger my portfolio gets, the more I have on the table, the deeper you are in the greater the opportunity. Just keep an eye out for Chicken Little and Yogi-they will try to shake your life up. I have learned to adjust to the various pain levels-unfortunately I have become a lover of pain- but that fits my style. When we start reaching new highs again I will get nervous-anxiety is not the same as pain. I hate jumping to soon-so I have my plan and I also have a plan B.
The account you refer to is an outside account balance I keep with Merrill. This account provides me more flexibility when faced with danger. A good example is the correction we just experienced from 3/7 to 4/20, it was fast and mean all the way down, but it did provide some excellent buying opportunities. My TSP account is similar to yours, I stayed in the C fund and will remain there for the duration to new highs. If you continue to be prodigious in your savings you certainly have the opportunity to reach that particular goal you mentioned.
Veteran,
Going forward we will both have the same problem. The larger my portfolio gets, the more I have on the table, the deeper you are in the greater the opportunity. Just keep an eye out for Chicken Little and Yogi-they will try to shake your life up. I have learned to adjust to the various pain levels-unfortunately I have become a lover of pain- but that fits my style. When we start reaching new highs again I will get nervous-anxiety is not the same as pain. I hate jumping to soon-so I have my plan and I also have a plan B.
The account you refer to is an outside account balance I keep with Merrill. This account provides me more flexibility when faced with danger. A good example is the correction we just experienced from 3/7 to 4/20, it was fast and mean all the way down, but it did provide some excellent buying opportunities. My TSP account is similar to yours, I stayed in the C fund and will remain there for the duration to new highs. If you continue to be prodigious in your savings you certainly have the opportunity to reach that particular goal you mentioned.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Veteran,
I realize you know all about your contribution limits-I'm mentioning them as a factoid for others that may be interested-you understand. Presently you can put in $14,000/year if salary allows with a catch up for salty dogs over 50 in years, that is $4000. In 2006 they are removing the 15% limit and you will be able to put in the full $15,000/year with a catch up of $5000/year. In 2007 going forward the max will be the $15000 indexed to inflation and the $5000 catch up remains the same. Now some are probably wondering what goal we were talking about - ONE MILLION!
Some more of that history again-hey it's your fault. I started investing in 1973 with $1000. I have made money and I have lost money- it's a repititious cycle- but progress can be made- keep it simple and under control. My investing style has certainly gone through transitions-the market has molded me into the contrarian (renegade) that I am. I have learned to absorb the punishment the BEARS like to create and I can endure the pain they deliver. I see events like this last correction as valuable-they always end when it is not a bear market-and a new day always begins. I plan to keep people appraised of my strategy all the way up.
Veteran,
I realize you know all about your contribution limits-I'm mentioning them as a factoid for others that may be interested-you understand. Presently you can put in $14,000/year if salary allows with a catch up for salty dogs over 50 in years, that is $4000. In 2006 they are removing the 15% limit and you will be able to put in the full $15,000/year with a catch up of $5000/year. In 2007 going forward the max will be the $15000 indexed to inflation and the $5000 catch up remains the same. Now some are probably wondering what goal we were talking about - ONE MILLION!
Some more of that history again-hey it's your fault. I started investing in 1973 with $1000. I have made money and I have lost money- it's a repititious cycle- but progress can be made- keep it simple and under control. My investing style has certainly gone through transitions-the market has molded me into the contrarian (renegade) that I am. I have learned to absorb the punishment the BEARS like to create and I can endure the pain they deliver. I see events like this last correction as valuable-they always end when it is not a bear market-and a new day always begins. I plan to keep people appraised of my strategy all the way up.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Veteran,
It's kind of like how the world turns. At some point you will notice when I start to get nervous, but that hopefully is a long way up frm here. I want my million also. I do have a thought for you if I may. Depending on how much overtime you might work-consider opening a Roth IRA with an inexpensive on line broker. It's an extra step to provide flexibility. If you are over the limit to qualify use the TSP to reduce your AGI (adjusted gross income) and include your wife in some form of plan. The Roth is a nice way to branch out and do even more dollar cost averaging. In 2006 the limit is $40000 with a $1000 catch up. My plan is to be in the 15% bracket when the wife and I retire. Even in retirement investing continues-many more years- many more peaks and vallies-much opportunity. There is a whole new generation coming on who will join the investor class. That creates demand for a limited supply of assets-especially if companies continue buying back their own stock.
Remember the world is a dangerous place, but I refuse to hide in my closet-I was in one once for 15 years. Our country will defend freedom and work toward protecting us.
Veteran,
It's kind of like how the world turns. At some point you will notice when I start to get nervous, but that hopefully is a long way up frm here. I want my million also. I do have a thought for you if I may. Depending on how much overtime you might work-consider opening a Roth IRA with an inexpensive on line broker. It's an extra step to provide flexibility. If you are over the limit to qualify use the TSP to reduce your AGI (adjusted gross income) and include your wife in some form of plan. The Roth is a nice way to branch out and do even more dollar cost averaging. In 2006 the limit is $40000 with a $1000 catch up. My plan is to be in the 15% bracket when the wife and I retire. Even in retirement investing continues-many more years- many more peaks and vallies-much opportunity. There is a whole new generation coming on who will join the investor class. That creates demand for a limited supply of assets-especially if companies continue buying back their own stock.
Remember the world is a dangerous place, but I refuse to hide in my closet-I was in one once for 15 years. Our country will defend freedom and work toward protecting us.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Veteran,
As a matter of fact I have a daughter that is a commissioned officer with the 25th Infantry Division Light. I feel safe knowing her generation is on task. That is one of my greater sacrifices-letting her have her way. And I'm going to manage her TSP account and open her a Roth IRA. Dad will be dad. She called home last week and mentioned she had more money in her bank account than she knew what to do with. Well, silly girl, we are going to fix that real soon. By the way, you can borrow from a Roth-no question, no paperwork, np penalties. And thanks to George our tax brackets will be lower next year. Thankyou for the chance to say hello. Regards
Dennis
Veteran,
As a matter of fact I have a daughter that is a commissioned officer with the 25th Infantry Division Light. I feel safe knowing her generation is on task. That is one of my greater sacrifices-letting her have her way. And I'm going to manage her TSP account and open her a Roth IRA. Dad will be dad. She called home last week and mentioned she had more money in her bank account than she knew what to do with. Well, silly girl, we are going to fix that real soon. By the way, you can borrow from a Roth-no question, no paperwork, np penalties. And thanks to George our tax brackets will be lower next year. Thankyou for the chance to say hello. Regards
Dennis
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
I read where 487 sp500 companies have reported their earnings with a 13.6% average gain-many companies posting upside surprises-a pattern that could continue in the quarters ahead. It'a all about the fundamentals for now. The aggregate advance/decline numbers are solidly in positive territory. The energy sector has the most attractive secular story in the stock market, based on rising demand and the effects of many years of underinvestment in the industry's infrastructure. I do wish the sp500 had more energy participation. They are at only 7%, but the financial participation is upwards of 21%-I'll make up for it elsewhere. Will be looking for some special raspberries this week before they are gone.
I read where 487 sp500 companies have reported their earnings with a 13.6% average gain-many companies posting upside surprises-a pattern that could continue in the quarters ahead. It'a all about the fundamentals for now. The aggregate advance/decline numbers are solidly in positive territory. The energy sector has the most attractive secular story in the stock market, based on rising demand and the effects of many years of underinvestment in the industry's infrastructure. I do wish the sp500 had more energy participation. They are at only 7%, but the financial participation is upwards of 21%-I'll make up for it elsewhere. Will be looking for some special raspberries this week before they are gone.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Birch
I have seen it twice recently where the % of companies doing better than average was (I think) 67%. Some did as expected, and some did below expections. Wish I knew where I saw those #s.
Those are good numbers for companies. Now with oil under $50. and Inflation worries at lower levels, the fundamentals look pretty good.
The technicals ain't looking bad. CMF indicators on money flow has been quite strong as of late. The moving averages are now upward and bullish.
I am hopeful for some short term good times, that maybe turn into a long term! Here's hoping!
Sometimes we see the bad news and worries so much that we tend to shy away from news. Then when the good news comes around, we are looking somewhere else. That's part of my problem. I hear so much Bear growls, I forget what a snort sounds like.
Have a good one!!!! Rgds. Spaf
Birch
I have seen it twice recently where the % of companies doing better than average was (I think) 67%. Some did as expected, and some did below expections. Wish I knew where I saw those #s.
Those are good numbers for companies. Now with oil under $50. and Inflation worries at lower levels, the fundamentals look pretty good.
The technicals ain't looking bad. CMF indicators on money flow has been quite strong as of late. The moving averages are now upward and bullish.
I am hopeful for some short term good times, that maybe turn into a long term! Here's hoping!
Sometimes we see the bad news and worries so much that we tend to shy away from news. Then when the good news comes around, we are looking somewhere else. That's part of my problem. I hear so much Bear growls, I forget what a snort sounds like.
Have a good one!!!! Rgds.
Spaf
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
I'll just take the rally today and not be proud. Sometimes the better part of valor is to just be quiet. There was some minor profit taking on the close-not a problem, the transports gave up most of their gains- just makes them available cheaper tomorrow. You could possibly see a bull falling from the sky depending on what thesurprise is tomorrow. Hope I land in water-I'll then be ready for Wednesday. I think 11,700 is just around the corner. Fully loaded and strapped in ready for Dow 12,000 and then Dow 13000.
I'll just take the rally today and not be proud. Sometimes the better part of valor is to just be quiet. There was some minor profit taking on the close-not a problem, the transports gave up most of their gains- just makes them available cheaper tomorrow. You could possibly see a bull falling from the sky depending on what thesurprise is tomorrow. Hope I land in water-I'll then be ready for Wednesday. I think 11,700 is just around the corner. Fully loaded and strapped in ready for Dow 12,000 and then Dow 13000.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Elsie don't come home just yet, please.
Yogi and Chicken Little - you must have a headache from such great numbers:
Final sales of domestic products rose 2.7% in the first quarter, up from the initial estimate of a 1.9% rise.
Inflation was unrevised from the initial estimate, PCE rose 2.1%, core PCE rose 2.2%.
Another reason for optimisum about the outlook for business spending was the jump in corporate profits in the first quarter. US corporations before-tax profits from current production rose a recod 23.6%.
The increase brought the year-over- year growth up to 35.9%. The fastest growth since the third quarter of 1987. Economists at Bear Stearns noted that corporate profits as a share of GDP have risen to the highest level in over 37 years.
Big rally here we come - rocket ride.
Elsie don't come home just yet, please.
Yogi and Chicken Little - you must have a headache from such great numbers:
Final sales of domestic products rose 2.7% in the first quarter, up from the initial estimate of a 1.9% rise.
Inflation was unrevised from the initial estimate, PCE rose 2.1%, core PCE rose 2.2%.
Another reason for optimisum about the outlook for business spending was the jump in corporate profits in the first quarter. US corporations before-tax profits from current production rose a recod 23.6%.
The increase brought the year-over- year growth up to 35.9%. The fastest growth since the third quarter of 1987. Economists at Bear Stearns noted that corporate profits as a share of GDP have risen to the highest level in over 37 years.
Big rally here we come - rocket ride.
Spaf
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
It's my party and I'll cry if I want to, cry if I want to, you would cry to if it happened to you. On 3/30 I soldanoil refinery located in the Rocky Mountains area - for around $36 with a nice profit. It was a sacrifice at the time to buy more raspberries, and I grateful for the opportunity to do so. Now why am I crying, crying, because the price of that stock closed out Friday at $48, and they have declared a 2for1 split. These are the prices of my accumulations:$12.50, 16.52,17.00,19.15,19.93,21.04,21.16,27.02, 26.65. I rang the cashregister and took the profit - but oh so soon. Just taking time to demonstrate how the world turns in a portfolio. There are so many sweet raspberries in the bear patch that have yet to find a home - I'm thinking about more sacrifices to participate in the secular energy play. Also thinking about how to play the upcoming Nuclear movement toward new plants- maybe more steel and cement.
It's my party and I'll cry if I want to, cry if I want to, you would cry to if it happened to you. On 3/30 I soldanoil refinery located in the Rocky Mountains area - for around $36 with a nice profit. It was a sacrifice at the time to buy more raspberries, and I grateful for the opportunity to do so. Now why am I crying, crying, because the price of that stock closed out Friday at $48, and they have declared a 2for1 split. These are the prices of my accumulations:$12.50, 16.52,17.00,19.15,19.93,21.04,21.16,27.02, 26.65. I rang the cashregister and took the profit - but oh so soon. Just taking time to demonstrate how the world turns in a portfolio. There are so many sweet raspberries in the bear patch that have yet to find a home - I'm thinking about more sacrifices to participate in the secular energy play. Also thinking about how to play the upcoming Nuclear movement toward new plants- maybe more steel and cement.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
I thought I was done, but the renegade contrarian is out for awhile. I have a particular rant that I would like to take a moment to elaborate upon. I once mentioned that I don't like to purchase mutual funds unless I absolutely cannot avoid the prospect. And here is part of the reason why:
In a recent survey of investment-industry compensation , a study comes amid growing interest in mutual-fund manager pay. While stocks and bonds have been floundering this year, their solid gains in the past two years made a big difference for mutual-fund managers. Their median pay, including salary and bonus, is $390,000, up 34% from $291,252 two years ago. In the two years ended 3/31, the Dow was up more than 30%, and mutual-fund assets rose 28% to more than $8 trillion.
The median US stock-fund managers' pay is $460,000, up 48% from two years ago, but down from the peak $481,500 in 2001, when checks were inflated by bull-market bonuses. Get this - managers running foreign bond funds had the biggest jump in compensation, with median pay of $460,000, up 92% from two years ago. Who do you think pays for this overhead, marketing and administrative expenses - we all do when we buy these overrated funds.
I thought I was done, but the renegade contrarian is out for awhile. I have a particular rant that I would like to take a moment to elaborate upon. I once mentioned that I don't like to purchase mutual funds unless I absolutely cannot avoid the prospect. And here is part of the reason why:
In a recent survey of investment-industry compensation , a study comes amid growing interest in mutual-fund manager pay. While stocks and bonds have been floundering this year, their solid gains in the past two years made a big difference for mutual-fund managers. Their median pay, including salary and bonus, is $390,000, up 34% from $291,252 two years ago. In the two years ended 3/31, the Dow was up more than 30%, and mutual-fund assets rose 28% to more than $8 trillion.
The median US stock-fund managers' pay is $460,000, up 48% from two years ago, but down from the peak $481,500 in 2001, when checks were inflated by bull-market bonuses. Get this - managers running foreign bond funds had the biggest jump in compensation, with median pay of $460,000, up 92% from two years ago. Who do you think pays for this overhead, marketing and administrative expenses - we all do when we buy these overrated funds.
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