amoeba's Account Talk

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Someone seems to know something about the employment report, and my guess is it is not going to be good.

I'm skiing tomorrow on Mt. Hood, have to leave early, so no IFT's this week. Gonna catch some interest in G-fund.
 
You should know that I covet your tracker ranking - soon it will belong to me. Sounds ludicrous I know but patience is golden.
 
Birchtree said:
You should know that I covet your tracker ranking - soon it will belong to me. Sounds ludicrous I know but patience is golden.
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#27 FYI; and now the top 30 are 100% in G and F; so I don't expect moves until someone really makes a timing score.

I don't believe the government's employment figures.

4-15" of new at Mt. Hood; bluebird day. ski till you drop (9am - 9 pm) for $39 bucks. First time in 3 years I've actually seen the mountain. Tomorrow I travel, sunday night I'll look at the futures
 
amoeba said:
I'm skiing tomorrow on Mt. Hood, have to leave early, so no IFT's this week.
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Mt Hood ! so beautiful ! Many years ago I spent some time in eastern Oregon. The first time I drove across the Cascades going into Portland, I had to pull off the highway & gawk! The day was as clear & gorgeous as could be, & when I rounded a curve - the Mountain stood straight up in the sky in front of me like a huge marshmellow. Overwhelming! I wanted to reach out and touch her!
Sometimes when the night is clear & the moon is full, it shines like the sun onto the Mountain. Have a great time!:D
 
amoeba said:
I say the jobs number will come in below forecast, last month's terrible number will be revised down - and the market will sell off. No jobs = no recovery.
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There you have it:

nonfarms was revised down (from -84K to -150K), and markets did sell off, only to have bottom fishers come in the last hour. Who out there believes this month's number (-20K or so)? And who is going all in monday? Not me. I think that's it for the "bounce" in the near future; time for a reality check - which means there probably won't be one......
 
I thought about putting in some chips:

But the VIX spike wasn't quite enough; and the EFA cracked below it's 200 day SMA like butter; so I'm looking for a week south of 1055. Today is a tough one. The recent IFT's shows 12:2 bullishness (transfer into equity funds); which is bearish for me.
 
Well:

A big bounce for equities; but looks to be a short-term one; mainly technical and/or geopolitical rumors about Greek bailout of some kind. Nothing fundamental.

Recent IFT's are 9:4 in favor of trading into the G or F funds.

I look for lower lows in all the equity funds within the next 3-5 trading sessions. If there is another day of equity fund gains, together with losses in F, say, to share price less than 13.50; I may go contrarian there.

S&P needs to push under 1,050 before I will think about that one - and it wouldn't be a no-brainer even then.
 
Just for the record; my ranking peaked at #26 yesterday, before falling a few spots to #30 today. This has been a tough set of market conditions; I thought the world was done with buying into political postures.....but there's still some big money moving around. These situations can change just as quickly to the downside; and have, recently.

I am near the short-term buy-in point on F-fund; but not quite there yet. Glad I got out at 13.53 shareprice a couple weeks ago (its back there again today). If this market rallies through thursday; watch for a falling house of cards as the bailers start selling.

If the rally holds another day, I could see a move as high as 1,090-1,100; before the next round of selling; which I believe will gap down deeper.
 
Recent IFT's 10:2 in favor of bailing to G-fund; exactly the opposite of what the markets are doing. If we are smart money, then we do not believe the rally. It appears to be based on a reversal of the no-bailout position of the EU on greece, but I'm not sure exactly what the plan is. Holiday for us monday. The markets are too far up from recent low to chance a 3-4th day on a rebound; so I'm not buying in again, yet.
 
A quick check shows sideways action; mid-day selling; I fell to #38 (from #31 on 2/11); but that will change today as none of those gainers locked in. Recemt IFT's show ~14:5 movement into equity funds.

F-fund cracked 13.50; barely; not enough for me to pull the trigger. Similarly, all the equity funds have been range bound; I will wait for more volume next week, or even the week after that; before deciding. I would like to get into the bond fund again short-term, perhaps next trading day. We'll see.
 
well, the volume came back, and it was undeniably positive. I have made a double wager, 20% in equities (S and I), and 60% in F (expecting to drop under 13.50 share price). I think the F will bounce tomorrow from an oversold position, and the equities will jump based on a surprise (lower) job claims number, tomorrow.

Well - I'm dropping a little in the ranking, so nothing ventured, nothing gained - (or nothing lost, depending on the market).

Amoeba out.
 
amoeba said:
well, the volume came back, and it was undeniably positive. I have made a double wager, 20% in equities (S and I), and 60% in F (expecting to drop under 13.50 share price). I think the F will bounce tomorrow from an oversold position, and the equities will jump based on a surprise (lower) job claims number, tomorrow.

Well - I'm dropping a little in the ranking, so nothing ventured, nothing gained - (or nothing lost, depending on the market).

Amoeba out.
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You think both will be up tomorrow because you are invested in both the F fund and the market.

I don't have a problem with that. It's ok to have good thoughts.:D
 
350zCommTech said:
You think both will be up tomorrow because you are invested in both the F fund and the market.

I don't have a problem with that. It's ok to have good thoughts.:D
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Yes I do. It rarely happens, but did earlier this week, for example. Anyway, I put my money where my mouth is.
 
I plan to take over your tracker position within the next 7 trading days - I'm heading back to my old number at 38.
 
Birchtree said:
I plan to take over your tracker position within the next 7 trading days - I'm heading back to my old number at 38.
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You almost scared the sheet out of me; fortunately; you are still floundering at #181, and I have fallen to merely #65 - and that without a negative day.

This may change either up, or down. Today was indeed a down day in F-fund; and time for me to buy in. For the likes of me and others who actually use their IFT's, it will be time to see how the rolling dice come up.

Buy and Hold = nothing gained for last decade. You would have lost less putting it under your pillow.:nuts:
 
nasa1974 said:
I can only dream of being double digit in the tracker.:nuts:
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You know - that is funny! One day I couldn't find me from my near 200 spot - - lo & behold! I was in the top 50!! Then Steadyg started threatening me, and so, naturally, I slipped somewhat! The Big Thing is: None of it was MY doing! - still isn't, even at #74.:cheesy:
Now that I am above G and L income, I will try to keep a positive outlook!!
-not to say I don't get uncomfortable when I'm out of G - like Right Now !!!
So, instead of dreaming, just wait for the `fall-out' - and you'll most likely get My Spot !!!:laugh:
 
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