amoeba's Account Talk

well, this stinks:

Not only am I floundering in rank, (#124, 3/4/10), but I'm floundering a few places below birch. And I have no doubt some phoney job report will be released tomorrow showing <<-50,000, but will be revised down in march - the whole week runup stinks bad of insider trading. And I smelled it a few days ago in one my earlier posts but didn't pull the trigger. Oh well, my plan was to make a move based on the open tomorrow morning, or monday at the latest.

Not sure what that will be.
 
well, this stinks:

Not only am I floundering in rank, (#124, 3/4/10), but I'm floundering a few places below birch. And I have no doubt some phoney job report will be released tomorrow showing <<-50,000, but will be revised down in march - the whole week runup stinks bad of insider trading. And I smelled it a few days ago in one my earlier posts but didn't pull the trigger. Oh well, my plan was to make a move based on the open tomorrow morning, or monday at the latest.

Not sure what that will be.

Geez amoeba I wish I was close to 124. I am currently sitting at 194.
 
well, this stinks:

And I have no doubt some phoney job report will be released tomorrow showing <<-50,000, but will be revised down in march - the whole week runup stinks bad of insider trading. ....And I smelled it a few days ago in one my earlier posts but didn't pull the trigger.Not sure what that will be.

Damn - did I say that? I guess I did. And the first part happened.....in addition to the gap up in the equity funds.....rotation out of F-fund big time. So now what? I guess I said I would jump....even though I got this bug feeling that the next job report or two may be bummer or revised.

Something smells of concocted statistics.....alot of people out here (CA) looking for work.....no one is saying it is any good out there for business.

No matter, if the big investors believe and buy into it, so will I - well not believe it - but buy into it. See ya monday.
 
I'm putting 50% of my chips in on a bet that there will be continued momentum up this week. I don't foresee any economic fireworks expected this week; just trying to eek out 1/2% a month, which is good for me.....
 
sideways action (50% in equity funds at COB):

The recent IFTs on this forum are pretty much trendless; some people going in, others cashing out; economics this week provide no clue as to whether the market will move, or which way; just a positioning bet for me based on lack of terrible news.

We'll see how it goes.
 
I dropped to rank#187, even after putting 50% in the pot:

No news week, market shooting straight up, expect 1150 to be breached by noon, then what?

Well, I'll tell you what.....no....let's just suppose, that the job claims data comes in light, and retail sales disappoints the next day?

We'll see....
 
rank holding stable at #188; altho things don't look "bad", the market has run up too far too fast.....as I said in the notes to my last IFT, I was going in late - hoping to eek out ~1/2% profit on the bet that the market would hit 1140-1150, and then I would bail.

And it did just that and is holding stable today despite what is generally a surprise retail sales number.....almost as if there is some selling on the good news, or skepticism, or something else out there. Anyway, the pop in the I-fund is nothing to ignore so - I'll take the money and run briefly to the sidelines....

I'm interested to see what the next jobs report brings, and how investors will react....I suspect nothing significant, but a random fluctuation to the downside, say, -50,000 jobs. My suspicion is that if, no, make that when....we get 3-4 months of no bottoming, just a drifting in the 10-11% unemployment range, investors may lose interest, and drag the equity funds down. I'd say the risk of staying in is maybe, oh,

at most, 15% to the downside by June 1. That's right, ~975 in the S&P.

The upside during the same period is no more than 5%, or ~1210 or so, so the question is....Do you feel lucky?

Well, do ya, punk?
 
You must really like your feet in cement - now you will drift even lower missing the next 13 high velocity exciting trading days. Say high to Corepuncher when you see him.
 
You must really like your feet in cement - now you will drift even lower missing the next 13 high velocity exciting trading days. Say high to Corepuncher when you see him.

We shall see who eat's whose words on April 1. I say it's you. Later
 
Hey, I just noticed that my CLF that I bought on 2/11 just turned $64.42. I purchased it at $45.52 so in 20 trading days I've gained 19 points - should I sell it now? Since I'm basically greedy I'd like to hold out for another 10 points - what say yee?
 
Hey, I just noticed that my CLF that I bought on 2/11 just turned $64.42. I purchased it at $45.52 so in 20 trading days I've gained 19 points - should I sell it now? Since I'm basically greedy I'd like to hold out for another 10 points - what say yee?

Looks to me like momo should carry it higher. At a minimum I'd look at selling at least some at the 61.8% retracement....

The July 2008 high was $120.06
The Feb 2009 low was $11.72 (wow)

I calculate the 61.8% retrace as $78.67
 
Amoeba,

The market generally moves in short bursts. Last year was an anomaly. A nine month long boom is something to behold. A time to make three years of growth in a few months.

Behold, Amoeba, behold – rumbles a still small voice…

But now is a more normal market – probably limited by “da’ Bama Discount”. From February 8 we have had a 9% market move. The trend is your friend – it is dangerous to trade out of it. That last IFT could force a miss on the rest of the market gains till maybe October. And if da Bama Discount concept is valid the game may be over for the entire year within the month. Normal market growth is consumed in weeks rather than months.

You have to be in to win.

The game may be over.
 
Amoeba,

The market generally moves in short bursts. Last year was an anomaly. A nine month long boom is something to behold. A time to make three years of growth in a few months.

Behold, Amoeba, behold – rumbles a still small voice…

But now is a more normal market – probably limited by “da’ Bama Discount”. From February 8 we have had a 9% market move. The trend is your friend – it is dangerous to trade out of it. That last IFT could force a miss on the rest of the market gains till maybe October. And if da Bama Discount concept is valid the game may be over for the entire year within the month. Normal market growth is consumed in weeks rather than months.

You have to be in to win.

The game may be over.


Discount? How's that? Obama has inflated consumption, ergo the market, with his chronies due to bailouts, clunker cashouts, home buyer rebates, and unemployment benefit extensions ad nauseum; and the only thing positive about his health care plan is that it is so silly it will never pass - something that also inflates the market (domestically). Universal health care won't work, or be economically viable unless everyone enrolls - healthy or sick, young or old; everything put on the table so far is just plain silly...

So if anything, it's an Obama inflator, not a discount. Only when removed (not if, WHEN), will the market reach its true value.

I say that will be lower. As for the rest of the month.....I will either eat my words, or I won't....we'll see.
 
Discount? How's that? Obama has inflated consumption, ergo the market, with his chronies due to bailouts, clunker cashouts, home buyer rebates, and unemployment benefit extensions ad nauseum; and the only thing positive about his health care plan is that it is so silly it will never pass - something that also inflates the market (domestically). Universal health care won't work, or be economically viable unless everyone enrolls - healthy or sick, young or old; everything put on the table so far is just plain silly...

So if anything, it's an Obama inflator, not a discount. Only when removed (not if, WHEN), will the market reach its true value.

I say that will be lower. As for the rest of the month.....I will either eat my words, or I won't....we'll see.


jury is still out on my last move - bailing at 1,150 - Boghie thought I may miss the rest of the year's upside in the last 1/2 of March; I disagree for the above reasons. Today's trading is a little thin, the big move will be monday, after the health care vote.
 
jury is still out on my last move - bailing at 1,150 - Boghie thought I may miss the rest of the year's upside in the last 1/2 of March; I disagree for the above reasons. Today's trading is a little thin, the big move will be monday, after the health care vote.

Amoeba,

My 'discount' term was intended to define an inherent reduction from the top of the market. President Obama, this Administration, and this Congress promote and enforce policies that will reduce economic activity, cost businesses more, and increase the highest expense most middle class folks have - thier total tax burdent (return - yuk, yuk). The only question is by how much the market (and the economy) will be discounted. Will it be 10%, 20%, 25%???

Regarding this years potential earnings...

If proposed 'reforms' (Healthcare, CapNTrade, Card Check, Amnesty, etc.) pass do you think there will be another opportunity for market gains this year?
 
If you mean increasing the capital gains tax rate (from 15%), it's ridiculously low, and Obama is an inflator because his attempt to increase it to pay for universal health care won't pass due to special interest by people with lots of money. I think that's already priced in.

What is not priced in is some other, non-Obama-related, concensus which would change the rate - Obama would take this to 23.8%, but someone else might go lower, or higher.

It wouldn't apply to anyone until their unearned income exceeds $250,000 in a given tax year, so if that's middle class, things have changed.

I personally don't think it will change anything....because whatever Obama succeeds in.....could be whipped around again with the next administration. So If anything like this passes - the sellers would turn into temporary buy-and-holders-till-Obama-is-outters....which would inflate stocks further.

What Obama may do, is permanently get rid of the home-seller tax write-offs of 250-500K, or whatever they are....which....would have the effect of subtracting about $50-75K from the after tax net gain of such sales. This would be a good time to make such a change, with the real estate market flat.

I'm all for more taxes on rich people who don't pay enough.
 
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