amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

well:

My latest bet on F didn't work; hit my buy target, was listed as most oversold EFT, and what happens?

It continues to go down another ~.2%; oh well.

I have no pre-dispositions; but inclined to hold position short term.....the 10yr note is at multimonth lows (~103.8 and change); we have more economic numbers next week that could affect F fund next week -hopefully on the upside. If not.....

Will probably wait until ~2/25-26 to bail.

 

[Birchtree]

Only the lonely know the way I feel today - pocketing the dollars.

 

[amoeba]

Only the lonely know the way I feel today - pocketing the dollars.

You have nothing in your pocket unless you get out when the market goes down. The records (through 2007) show have never IFT'd out of equities (well, once, briefly and that by 5% G). This means, in 2008, you got socked for a loss of more than 40%; so who cares about your 27% gain last year? That nets you a negatory 13% return. My paultry 3% last year, plus the ~4.7% the year before (2008); puts me at +7.7%, or 20% ahead of you.

Buy and hold = starve and fold.

 

[Birchtree]

You are not taking into account the delightful benefits of dollar cost averaging into the depths of the well where the best prices reside. Enjoy your lily pad rest. I think we can blame today on the Sun-Neptune conjunction - it has a historical rate of frequency of 79% and takes in next week. Get ready for my visit. Thanks for being a good sort - I'm just playing a little.

 

[Scrappy]

Only the lonely know the way I feel today - pocketing the dollars.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ4xALSUysc=playerembedded
http://webmail.tx.rr.com/do/redirect?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DDZ4xALSUysc


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ4xALSUysc

 

[Birchtree]

That was always a great song. Right up there with "Ramblin Rose" in my book by Nat King Cole.

 

[amoeba]

My first negative day (yesterday lost 0.03%); rank stable at #70
Still looking for some technical pop in the F-fund; another sideways/slight down day; I thought the core CPI would have some effect; but apparently not. I may need to think about this some more.

Alot of IFT action all over the board, some in F (intrepid), some in I (poolman), and most is money going in, with some going out - to all G. A whole bag of strategies on this forum.

This may be time to keep an eye on things; it sure was last year.

 

[350zCommTech]

My first negative day (yesterday lost 0.03%); rank stable at #70
Still looking for some technical pop in the F-fund; another sideways/slight down day; I thought the core CPI would have some effect; but apparently not. I may need to think about this some more.

Alot of IFT action all over the board, some in F (intrepid), some in I (poolman), and most is money going in, with some going out - to all G. A whole bag of strategies on this forum.

This may be time to keep an eye on things; it sure was last year.

Looks like you got your wish. All the funds are up, including the F fund.

The I fund depends on the FV.

 

[Birchtree]

"Stock market heading for a period of consolidation."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17401.html

 

[Birchtree]

"Stock market heading for a period of consolidation."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17401.html

 

[amoeba]

well, I did dump all the equity fund stake on yesterday's up day, noting poolman's expectation of a jump due to the dollar valuation; which showed up first in the asian markets sunday night. Poolman, who is smarter than me, bailed likewise. The consumer confidence number came in way south of expectations, which brings the next jobs number into question.

So, I am holding about 1/3 F fund, which I will bail if it rises above 13.53 share price before the end of week, otherwise; I'll hold it over to march.

My 2/22 end of day rank was #75; which I expect to improve on today.

 

[Scrappy]

My 2/22 end of day rank was #75; which I expect to improve on today.

My 2/22 end of day rank was #76; I tried to IFT to 100% F Friday before I realized I had no IFT left.

Please don't leave me in your dust.........

 

[amoeba]

So, I am holding about 1/3 F fund, which I will bail if it rises above 13.53 share price before the end of week, otherwise; I'll hold it over to march.

My 2/22 end of day rank was #75; which I expect to improve on today.

Share price hit target, so if the bond market opens up (or even flat) tomorrow - I'm out. Rank #52 today (2/23/10).

 

[amoeba]

Share price hit target, so if the bond market opens up (or even flat) tomorrow - I'm out. Rank #52 today (2/23/10).

2/24/10 - noon - AGG opens up and stays there; I expect F-fund share price to follow; so I dumped it and will sit in G-fund...as SPY sits at what I feel is an intermediate top....and more GDP's and jobs numbers to show up very soon.

See ya next month.

 

[amoeba]

well:

even tho AGG was up on 2/24, our F-fund price dropped; this is something I never can quite figure out. Still need a better index of our F-fund than AGG.

anyhoo, I expect nothing but sideways action until next friday's jobs report; it's a small number in the nonfarms forecast (-20K), which would make +/- 100K of that look big, but its more or less sideways action on that indicator.

And the equity funds appear to be pausing.....so no idea yet where the next move will be.

Still some major lags on our economy: jobs, home prices settling (never to rise again, for all those hopers out there), and alot of biz propped up on stimuli which can't last forever. Doesn't mean that anyone will have a reality check, but they might.

 

[amoeba]

dropped to rank #64 (2/25/10); bailed a little early on the F-fund - but all in all - a fair month for the likes of me.

More IFT's to play with next week...very flat today....we'll see what looks good then; will try to reallocate early in the month.

 

[Birchtree]

http://safehaven.com/article-15940.htm

 

[Birchtree]

I bought a chunk of CLF (Cliffs Natural Resources) on 2/11 for my lamb chop account at $45.52 - it's now trading at $59.16. Should I cut and run like a chiclet and take the profit or hold out like a greedy bugger that I know I am for another 30 points? Snort.

 

[amoeba]

Hey birch, CLF isn't offered as an option for the TSP, but whatever, I would have sold today (up 5%, near 62 price target). Pigs get slaughtered.

Having said that, I am sticking with my last post, and planning to invest early in the month this time; it appears based on the big day today that someone knows something about the upcoming jobs report - and that something may be a surprise, not a disappointment.

However - once these things leak out; they often result in a runup before, and a sell on the good news.

Of course - it could be false rumor - and it may disappoint big.

Oh, PS. I'm at rank #67 before today's close (3/1/10)

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/morgan-stanley-too-early-to-buy-the-rally