amoeba's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

The F fund is not safe when interest rates are creeping up - the economy is getting better and interest rates will reflect that by going up independent of the Fed.

 

[amoeba]

uhhh, hmmmm:

flat around 1,130; or is it a bounce off it? hard to tell. not sure. holding pattern for now. not a buy yet.

that was some move in the I-fund, wasn't it? will be interesting to see what the rest of the week does.

 

[amoeba]

The F fund is not safe when interest rates are creeping up - the economy is getting better and interest rates will reflect that by going up independent of the Fed.

Well - I guess we both are putting money where we believe - that was 1/13/10; and where did interest rates go? (down) and what is not safe (your eternally beloved I-fund)? Of course, further actions in China (interest rate wise) may change things sooner than we think.

I still think this is more than a 2-day dip; more like a reality check - circa 7-10% correction. I'll be looking for fund prices somewhere at the midpoint between the 50 and 200 DMA, ~ 52 for the I-fund, for example. The 50 DMA doesn't look like it will hold.

 

[amoeba]

I'm sure others have noticed the heavy IFT activity this morning:

About 60:40 in favor of building equity stakes on consecutive downday. So either some of us are expecting a reversal, or will be spending tomorrow in the woodshed.

Boy, I'm in the 60's ranking; I'll probably do something stupid to change it but it feels good for a day. Can't accuse me of trader's block (34 IFT's last year).

 

[amoeba]

OK:

it looks like a pause in the reversal (or at least not accelerating declines) .....even with what appears to be increasing bearishness, at least if the IFT pattern is a sample (looks like more running for cover than not). I'll bite, hoping for some pocket change bounce early next wk. 20% in. Go from there.

 

[amoeba]

OK:

it looks like a pause in the reversal (or at least not accelerating declines) .....even with what appears to be increasing bearishness, at least if the IFT pattern is a sample (looks like more running for cover than not). I'll bite, hoping for some pocket change bounce early next wk. 20% in. Go from there.

No sooner had I made the IFT, the market fell off a cliff; I am skiing tomorrow and I may carry it over to monday. Not sure what gives on the disparity between the F-share price and AGG friday. Whatever, time to cut bait; I expect a rebound monday, a modest sell into any good news, and a big sell into any bad news. I'll leave a pittance in C(10% or less)and expect to get rid of that before week's end.

50% G, 40% F, 10% C.

 

[amoeba]

I was disappointed in today's lame bounce, so I cashed out of only 1/2 last friday's 20% C-fund bet. Not sure what the half-hearted market move means....but if I was to make a guess, it is that the correction is not over, ergo.....I am dumping the rest of C-fund tomorrow, where I will be 60G:40F at COB.

Remember the Alamo? (errr....last year's jan-mar market pattern)

 

[amoeba]

Well - 1100 upper resistance held; thx to a last hour down move:

Hard to make sense of all this; some move into gold, some rise in the 2 yr swap spread; but altogether I'm confused with what appears to be a holding pattern.

If there's a big move in the offing, someone will show up to claim they predicted it, after the fact.

 

[amoeba]

well - good news, for me:

I completed a bail-out of C-fund on the second of two consecutive up days, and held onto a sizable chunk of F-fund (40%), after modest decline - if the share price hits 13.60; out that goes too, until the end of the month. Finally, I believe I've found an error in the autotracker, hopefully in my favor.

I expect near-term drags due to job losses, and concern about long-term negative effects of continuing or increasing stimuli intervention (debt, inflation).

 

[amoeba]

well - good news, for me:

I completed a bail-out of C-fund on the second of two consecutive up days, and held onto a sizable chunk of F-fund (40%), after modest decline - if the share price hits 13.60; out that goes too, until the end of the month. Finally, I believe I've found an error in the autotracker, hopefully in my favor.

I expect near-term drags due to job losses, and concern about long-term negative effects of continuing or increasing stimuli intervention (debt, inflation).

that was then (2 hrs ago) - this is now; there was one up day in the C-fund, no consecutive......tsptalk put the boogie on the market.....look out below....except for short-term F-fund, which I say will profit tomorrow.....may be time to ditch that as well.

 

[amoeba]

Return down to 0.75%; my rank rises to #44; highest in about a year. F-fund still foundering at 13.51; hoping for a jump - or at least not a big drop, something that happened last month with a vengeance.

Buy low, sell high. Take no losses.

 

[amoeba]

Buy low, sell high. Take no losses.

I said that? what about if F-fund has been foundering, and you are looking at a friday in which only the G-fund accrues over the weekend?

In that case, I change my mind. Pile into G-fund. Get my 0.03% and go home. I have more IFT's next month. I thought there would be a rotation as equities declined further this week, but NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. I haven't decided to go 80 or 90 or 100% G, but it will be alot. See ya later.

Amoeba out.

 

[amoeba]

Rank #38 as of today; as a few more knife-catchers bite the dust:

F-fund declined for a fourth consecutive day. The only thing good about it is that the equity funds are even worse stinkers. I bail effective COB tomorrow - 100% G fund.

Here's to a free-fall in the CSI funds next wk. Come December, what will you all say if you knew the 2010 high was ten months earlier, in the first two weeks of January?

Somebody better create some jobs, by some other means than stimuli, because whoever is selling stocks isn't buying that method anymore.

 

[Birchtree]

May a ray of light shine on your position - but are you making any money? At least I'm getting a little devaluation to keep things interesting and moving. Do an about face now and you'll make more money than last year - I promise. This bull is just getting started.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

The game's a long one.

One month, one year, even three year internal rates of returns are not good measures.

Are you all set for retirement - or are you still in the accumulation phase?

And, yeah, I started closing my hand around this knife on the 22nd. Great timing!!! But, I think 'The One' has probably zipped his yammer for a month or so. We will recover these loses.

 

[amoeba]

market cut thru 1,080 like butter:

amoeba says freefall to ~10% off the high's (1,150-115 = 1,035); there may be a short-term opportunity around then - depending on how quick it is reached; otherwise - yawn - wake me up when someone creates some jobs here.

Out of town next week, but I'll be watching........

 

[amoeba]

Now I'm ranked #32; given my untimely attempts to make money last year while most everyone else did (ended #216).....I'd like the record for posterity to cheer me up when I start making dumb moves again.

 

[amoeba]

well - here I am on "training"; and instead of snarfing gourmet food; I inhaled a burger and had to take a look at the asian markets open. Uggh.

This appears not about making money, but how much more anyone in the market is willing to lose.

1035? I'm wondering if this will hold or be taken out this week. Then what?

So, where is Frix, and where is the bottom?

 

[Birchtree]

There is always someone that will ask where is the bottom before they realize they may well already be standing on it.

 

[amoeba]

I say the jobs number will come in below forecast, last month's terrible number will be revised down - and the market will sell off. No jobs = no recovery.