amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Could happen with, for example, a big surprise in either the claims or jobs number, or should I call that the job loss number? With alot of bulls, there might be buying into bad news, too. Alot of fluctuation today, and dips to the west pond as I write; and some musings about extending the bogus new home incentives - - - for ANOTHER YEAR. Analysis showed that for $15,000,000,000, all of the incentives produced only 350,000 additional sales beyond what would have happened without the incentives, yet 1.8 million claimed the incentive. So we just paid $43,000 per additional sale.

Of course, the solution being peddled by republicans is to double the incentive. But since nobody can do math, the market will definitely go up forever.

 

[Boghie]

Of course, the solution being peddled by republicans is to double the incentive. But since nobody can do math, the market will definitely go up forever.

Not forever, amoeba.
Not forever...

Even the greatest of Buy and Holders (BirchTree - actually a Buy and Allocator) sees an end to the party. I think his read is about where I thought the punch bowl would be tipped over by the party drunks. He is going to reallocate sometime next year. I mean, a 20% correction that corrects no further is not something to sneaze at

That is why it is important to be in the market now.

After we top out on this run we might get the big dump you are expecting, or - to me more likely - we will get a 70's style Carteresque Flat Line. An Obama Flat Line mixed with inflation is massively damaging to our 401(k).

The only thing saving most of us right now is that we are mixing a market crash with deflation. Internally, our dollar buys more stuff. Externally, not so much Also, watch out. Both of us live in California. Nowadays it feels like we are living in Bangladesh or a backwards part of Mexico or something. The rest of the United States isn't in as bad of shape as us.

Anyway, I don't think we are in for a W. More likely an upside down L that doesn't come close to the 2007 highs. So, if we drop 5% - 10% I run to safety. I don't want to be in the Obama 3 Year Market Flat Line without realizing the 'recovery' gains.

You gotta be in to win...

Tomorrow might be too late...

 

[Boghie]

Not forever, amoeba.
Not forever...

Even the greatest of Buy and Holders (BirchTree - actually a Buy and Allocator) sees an end to the party. I think his read is about where I thought the punch bowl would be tipped over by the party drunks. He is going to reallocate sometime next year. I mean, a 20% correction that corrects no further is not something to sneaze at

That is why it is important to be in the market now.

After we top out on this run we might get the big dump you are expecting, or - to me more likely - we will get a 70's style Carteresque Flat Line. An Obama Flat Line mixed with inflation is massively damaging to our 401(k).

The only thing saving most of us right now is that we are mixing a market crash with deflation. Internally, our dollar buys more stuff. Externally, not so much Also, watch out. Both of us live in California. Nowadays it feels like we are living in Bangladesh or a backwards part of Mexico or something. The rest of the United States isn't in as bad of shape as us.

Anyway, I don't think we are in for a W. More likely an upside down L that doesn't come close to the 2007 highs. So, if we drop 5% - 10% I run to safety. I don't want to be in the Obama 3 Year Market Flat Line without realizing the 'recovery' gains.

You gotta be in to win...

Tomorrow might be too late...

Ouch

That pitch was just a liiiittttttttllllllllllllleeeeeeee bit outside

 

[Birchtree]

I took a look at his ranking and had to use my flash light because he is so deep in the well. But there is always next year and the lily pad is always a comfort. But comfort usually doesn't translate into enhanced gains. Be in to win.

 

[amoeba]

I took a look at his ranking and had to use my flash light because he is so deep in the well. But there is always next year and the lily pad is always a comfort. But comfort usually doesn't translate into enhanced gains. Be in to win.

So true. I need a maglight myself. But I escaped the mess today with my scivy's and gained 10 ranking spots. and then there is tonight, and asia gapped down sharply at the open across the continent. At least 2%. and then there's tomorrow's jobs report.
Will the 50 dma's continue to hold?


I wouldn't be surprised at anything in October. Especially this one.

 

[amoeba]

Well, that was a muted reaction today to a godaweful jobs report. That one should have shocked the conscience but only drifted ~.5%-1% in our equity funds. I don't see anything on next week's earning front to crow about. And beyond that, I have my doubts about the holiday season, both spending and temp hires. So technicals at work agaoin? Maybe some bottom fishing on between around the dma thresholds? Again, it's hard to make sense of anything economically with all the stimulus money out there.

 

[mayday]

Take one day at a time. Don't worry be happy. Go out and celebrate. You don't have to sweat it till Monday.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

I was thinking about bailing to about a 60% equities holding myself...
I have made too many moves this year. 18 IFTs this year - eee gads

Anyway, kinda squinted at the chart and see some hope for change. To me it looks like we have buyers coming back in - at least in our two US equities funds.

My guess is that we are now at equilibrium. The market will be in a narrow trading range. I mean, what bad news can dump it - we expect bad news. And, the consumer is still paying off their restaurant meals from 1998 - they are going to continue paying credit card bills and increase their savings rate.

If we are at equilibrium we should definitely reduce risk. The reward of risk will not be major gains. But, a Black Swan may fly overhead and crap on our faces.

That does not mean bail from the market - just reduce risk. There is as much a chance that a real pretty Black Swan will show up and point the way home...

 

[amoeba]

I'm wondering what Boghie is seeing when he squints:

I do see the 50 dma's approaching; and I did see the market's muted reaction to the big miss on the jobs report. To me, that could just another sign of overly bullishness, which is fine staying in if the volatility stays in the 0-2% range/day fluctuation; but there could be a big day - - - I thought that would have been yesterday....but....eh....it wasn't much of anything.

 

[Boghie]

I'm wondering what Boghie is seeing when he squints

When I squint I see a rather normal and small correction...

Now, the problem is:

If you have been out of the market since March 9th than there is a chance you should be out of the market till March 9, 2013. I don't see a collapse - which would be another buying opportunity (like March 9). And thus, I don't see a second crash correction to the up. That is, I don't see a W anywhere in the near future. Folks started buying on a 4% - 6% drop; and that occured in the smart money time zone. To me, that means we may have another 5% to the downside at worst.

So, if I squint real hard and hope for the best I see a run up of maybe 15% - 20% from these levels. That would leave the market at about a 20% correction from the highs. That probably prices in a couple points of consumer savings growth and the growth of the Obama taxes/regulations scheme. Following that, we have Jimmy Carter II with a flat line market for the remainder of the term.

So, I care less about this small correction if I can attain the LAST growth we will see in equities till just before the Mayan Apocalypse toward the end of 2012. Or, more likely the corporate bean counters typing a number in this column rather than that one.

Do I really want to be in cash during the last market boom of this Presidency?

 

[Birchtree]

"When stocks suddenly reverse course in an atmosphere of pervasive gloom and ascend nearly 60% without pause for seven months, it's time to take notice. One of the most valuable historical lessons is to completely ignore earnings and forecasts in the first six to 12 months of a new bull market."

http://www.howestreet.com

 

[amoeba]

Not forever, amoeba.
Not forever...

Even the greatest of Buy and Holders (BirchTree - actually a Buy and Allocator) sees an end to the party. I think his read is about where I thought the punch bowl would be tipped over by the party drunks. He is going to reallocate sometime next year. I mean, a 20% correction that corrects no further is not something to sneaze at

That is why it is important to be in the market now.

After we top out on this run we might get the big dump you are expecting, or - to me more likely - we will get a 70's style Carteresque Flat Line. An Obama Flat Line mixed with inflation is massively damaging to our 401(k).

The only thing saving most of us right now is that we are mixing a market crash with deflation. Internally, our dollar buys more stuff. Externally, not so much Also, watch out. Both of us live in California. Nowadays it feels like we are living in Bangladesh or a backwards part of Mexico or something. The rest of the United States isn't in as bad of shape as us.

Anyway, I don't think we are in for a W. More likely an upside down L that doesn't come close to the 2007 highs. So, if we drop 5% - 10% I run to safety. I don't want to be in the Obama 3 Year Market Flat Line without realizing the 'recovery' gains.

You gotta be in to win...

Tomorrow might be too late...

So now what? I'm feeling alot less stupid than I was a week ago.

 

[Boghie]

So now what? I'm feeling alot less stupid than I was a week ago.

Amoeba,

The market will find its neutral zone. From there it will not go up at the normal growth rate because of the proposed tax and regulation environment. Companies will have declining earnings because they will jigger the accounting – we don’t want our companies paying dividends anymore on the earnings anyway. Back to ENRON economics, the game is on!!! :nuts:

But, why should the market discount itself 50% when the proposed increases in taxes and regulation will cost companies far less than that. The problem is in finding the line. Is it going to be a 20% discount, a 25% discount, or a 30% discount? Once the market determines the proper discount we will be at full value. Then, you will enter the flat line economy.

Right now, we are probably in a mild up market correction. Amoeba, we have corrected only 5.2% from the high. That really isn’t a correction. It will probably drop more till the market movers sense a bargain. Then it will ride to the Carter II line wherever that may be – but, it will be higher by double digits from here under either of the 20% and 25% discount models. Now is the time to take some risk if you haven't reached market returns - unless you think the market should be priced at a 60% discount.

Since I cannot determine the Carter II Line I will place bets on both sides. If we boom I’ll have to IFTs to move incrementally into the equity market. If we have a full correction (-10% to -20%) I will have cash (G Fund) to invest for easy gains. If this is market equilibrium, why have the equity risk for no return.

 

[amoeba]

well I hope you are right. I threw 10% of my chips in the C-pot today (10/30). But ooo papa, there were alot of others that cashed theirs today; including last year's rank leader (poolman).

I'll either buy more on the next big down move, or sell it out on a deadcat, or both.

Ahhh, the glory of 2 more IFT's.

 

[Birchtree]

I believe such a move would make DrScooter proud. Carry on.

 

[Boghie]

Kaleefornea's Grasping Hand...

Hey, Amoeba,

Kaleefornea is going to borrow a bit from your paycheck.

And, you will certainly get an IOU for the difference when your taxes are processed

Who could ask for more.

1933 Deutch Marks.

2010 KalIOUS

Argentina

Stamps

IOU

0

Amoeba, we Kaleeforneans must do our part to fix Uncle LibTards budget!!!

I think my part will be to increase TSP contributions, reduce withholdings, and donate to a marvelous charity of my choice.

There, I have done my part

 

[amoeba]

flat as a pancake - no deadcat - what now?

title says it:

I was hoping for a deadcat bounce, but saw the indices drift off the open at about 8:30 am and didn't want to lock in a loss....my investment nose doesn't smell anything. The AGG, the 10-year bond yield, spyders, everything is drifting sideways. Maybe this is forming a bottom, maybe it is a lull before a storm, a drop, down to the 200 dma. This hasn't happened for awhile, and when it did (several times in the 2003-2006 bull market), the 200 and 50 dma's were much closer - and the dips were brief.

Here - the 200 and 50 dma's are quite far apart, as they were in mid-2008, when the house of cards started coming down. As I've said before, it's hard to make any historical analogy since the government intervention, pouring money into bad banks, bad loans, clunker cars, new home rebates, extended unemployment benefits, etc., etc., etc., seems to continue to no end. What should have been an orderly sorting of the supply/demand/credit situation has become a volatile market of hope or, more appropriately, expectation - that any and every request for a handout is fulfilled. To be sure, the economy has not reached a bottom, not yet. We won't know when that bottom is, or was, until after we have moved up from it.

I do think too many people are watching CNBC, judging by the reactions this morning.

I'll make some sort of move this week; if I can't lead the returns, maybe I have a shot at most IFT's or at least, top ten.

Amoeba out.

 

[amoeba]

well:

That last IFT was a clunker - oh I hate that word - did I pull the plug too soon? Or not? A whole lot of dough poured into equities in advance of the jobs number; I have a feeling tomorrow will sell off. I wouldn't be completely surprised if the number was below -200K, but again, I'm still puzzled how such data are interpreted confidently with the eternal array of clunkers, stimuli, rebates, and rebate extentions.

Staying 2/3 G, 1/3 F, one more IFT.

 

[Boghie]

well:

That last IFT was a clunker - oh I hate that word - did I pull the plug too soon? Or not? A whole lot of dough poured into equities in advance of the jobs number; I have a feeling tomorrow will sell off. I wouldn't be completely surprised if the number was below -200K, but again, I'm still puzzled how such data are interpreted confidently with the eternal array of clunkers, stimuli, rebates, and rebate extentions.

Staying 2/3 G, 1/3 F, one more IFT.

That's the danger when using an IFT to bail out of F/C/S/I. I like to use the limited IFTs we have for forward trades into the equities funds. You can always bail out to the G fund - as many times as you want.

Then again, sometime one has to do what one has to do...

 

[amoeba]

love-to-bike has the golden touch

check the quarterly results on the tracker.....this member apparently has acquired the golden touch. Up 11.6% so far.....


This might be one to shadow.....not sure what he/she has figured out but no one else is close and its bit of a long run to be lucky.