amoeba's Account Talk

[Boghie]

Mercury's Feet for Amoeba

Amoeba,

This market feels topped out.

Not saying 'get out', but kinda late to the trough. You don’t have much room for a minor 5% correction before another up leg. And, I wouldn’t trust the correction to be minor.

I ain’t a’bailing because I can lose 7% and still clear 10% this year (hiding like a Kennedy Trust Funder in the ‘G Fund’). And, I think there is a solid chance the ‘correction’ might just be a meandering – like mid-July. Nobody knows. If we follow the wonderful October/November/March model we can lose 6 in a day. Then I run so fast nobody will see me for a week.

Just keep a watch. Recommend a get out of here point. Can’t be less than 5% - 7% or you will lock in all the losses…

Should have gotten the gains when the gains were there to be had.

 

[Birchtree]

The NYSE has been firm all day compared to the fluctuating Dow. The A/D line is 2/1. Even though we have more profit taking on the close. Next week will be the rush up the hill.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Mercury's Feet for Amoeba

Amoeba,

This market feels topped out.

Not saying 'get out', but kinda late to the trough. You don’t have much room for a minor 5% correction before another up leg. And, I wouldn’t trust the correction to be minor.

I ain’t a’bailing because I can lose 7% and still clear 10% this year (hiding like a Kennedy Trust Funder in the ‘G Fund’). And, I think there is a solid chance the ‘correction’ might just be a meandering – like mid-July. Nobody knows. If we follow the wonderful October/November/March model we can lose 6 in a day. Then I run so fast nobody will see me for a week.

Just keep a watch. Recommend a get out of here point. Can’t be less than 5% - 7% or you will lock in all the losses…

Should have gotten the gains when the gains were there to be had.

well - there is no "history repeats" pattern in this market; as my IFT history shows - it was me who bought in at 750, only to see it rise to 780 by COB that day, and fall to 760 the following day; so I doubled down, only to see it fall into the low 700's.....now, I was messing with only 1/3 of my TSP, so the 5-7% swatting didn't kill me, but it did chill me to the bone for a couple months....I ventured in and out, pulling a few tenths gains here and there.

Then we have July.....now.....I was on vacation then, but still watched, as the venerable birchtree subbed below my pitiful rank and go into negatory. Remembering March I was thinkin.....well....this correction must have more to go. Fact is, it didn't. It turned on a dime and went up 11%. I had a pittance in the market then .....maybe 10%.....and called the top at 950. Problem was.....after the few days pause.....it rose another 5%. Finger on the button as it was, I bought in before that latest uptick, I guessed correctly (random chance, probably) that the claims data would be in-line, and the treasury auction would go better than anticipated, and both did - - - the latter having something to do with a weak dollar....but whatever. So here I am, above the G-fund finally....and feeling like king for a day.

Another $2B in silly clunker bailouts = another month of skewed domestic data.....no.....it shouldn't be believed, but that's what the late investors are doing. Am I that stupid? No. But I know there's alot of other stupid money out there. So I joined the party late. I don't have a good feeling either way on the jobs report....yet.....and little time to react this coming week bcz of field work.

I am will to lose 1% to get 3. Half my powder is dry.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

I am starting to use some of the tools provided by TSPTalk to track on some of the folks here. Even the 'quiet' SteadyGain. Important to note the gain portion of this moniker - yuk, yuk...

I too have my prejudices - I don't like corporate bailouts and pork filled projectile barf. But then who does:nuts: I don't believe we are in a cyclical bull. We could have been, but Congress is shooting at their golden egg target range.

But, you got to ride the bull when he is running. Kinda boring sitting on a grazing cow!!!

 

[Birchtree]

I think it's time for amoeba to put on a pair of sticky pants and try the old strategy of buy and hold. Look at those nine buy and holders in the I fund - there was a time they were on the bottom with me and now I'm eating their dust. Remember when you told me to sell everything - that would have been a colossal mistake. You simply didn't realize I enjoy pain and sometimes without pain there is no gain.

 

[Birchtree]

Close the door and quietly walk away - don't run that will create hysteria.

Http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12532.html

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

This thang may not last, but what gourmet meal ever does. I'm going to gorge for however long this restaurant is open. It’s an all-you-can-eat feast.

I’m going to outlast the exploding fat man in Monty Pythons ‘The Meaning of Life’. I’m going to need a reinforced wheelchair just to move my pear shaped piano case bullocks from one delicacy to another. They are going to have to call the cops to get me out of there.

Me and Birch.

Uuuggh, Birch will probably outlast me.
He will have to buried in a piano case :laugh:

 

[amoeba]

Just bumped myself up one notch in the ranking with a 50% mess of various funds which somehow eeeked up .05%..........due to the F-fund rise today.

Remains to be seen where this will go.........I saw the ^VIX crest 25 earlier today, and if I thought anyone else who is investing had more than an ounce of sanity, I would bail, thinking this is the beginning of the rest of the second half of the "W" bottom, or is it an "M"?

But no-one out there is sane; they all think 1/4 million job losses is good news; that car sales are up (sure, at $4,500 off for 2 wks only); no matter that half the mortgages in the country are under water; the government will do something and save us all...........so bottom line is, if I think you are holding, then I am holding my equity funds. And that's what I think.....the world economy is now a larger house of cards built on government stimuli. Nobody thinks it will come tumbling down, so it doesn't, at least not yet.

But things have a way of changing when you least expect it.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

The real test isn't this month.

The real test will be September and definitely October.

Right now you just want to grab all you can. Then in late August or early September reallocate to a balancing point where you don’t feel you have to jump ‘all-in’ if the market starts moving up or leave the table if the market moves down. If you are at a 60/40 split when the decision has to be made than the pain of a 10% correction only loses you 5% or so. And, you gain 5% or so if you aren’t confident in a market up move being lasting.

Mentally, it is easier for me to change my allocation by 20% than 100%.

 

[amoeba]

As my IFT comment says:

I went 100% G, just a combination of being too far and too long above the 20 dma's, the GS sentinel that coolhand mentioned, the ^VIX>26 and trying to cashout on the top of the F-fund.

I plan to reinvest on the next dip below the 20-50 dma's, provided there are no major surprises.

 

[amoeba]

Happy to see the F-share price hit 13, a nice cash-out point; less pleased to see everything else reverse course, but I have one more IFT to play with. We'll see if coolhand's seventh sentinels hold - there's a bit of late msg/blog activity here as if there's some "hoping for one more day and I'm out of this...." mentality.

There's been some "chasing" this week, first the S-fund, and then the F. If this were really a bull, I would think there would be acccumulation, not rotation. Asia gapped down tonight, but not sharply.....

And just one more vote against the IFT limit; if I had my druthers, I'd be doing more IFT's and I bet making more money (or losing less).

 

[KevinD]

Asia gapped down tonight, but not sharply.....

I've been thinking about this and it seems to me that Asia follows us. We were down yesterday so Asia followed suit.

Europe and the futures on the other hand are currently up. I think they need to move the international date line.

Heres to a green day.

 

[amoeba]

So a crummy retail sales resulted in what?

Of course - buying the bad news. As if anyone cares about something other than closing index price, some of this is the result of financials speculation, and down volume - at least on the NYSE - has been very high the last few trading days, as has put option activity on the SPY.

Bailing was the right decision, based on what I thought would occur - with the retail sales figure; of course the expected result did not - namely - the market held steady, and is actually up 1% (more in the I fund).

As if my call of 950 top was short, this 1000 and change is above the clouds based on the fundamentals. Two countries posting a positive GDP does not make a recovery, especially if it does not include the USA.

I can't help but think that past recent actions - namely, one bailout after another - has lead to complacency and maintained a buy-hold in this declining economy (not recovering).

Is our economy better off now than in March? How much of consumption is due to artefacts of stimuli and artificially-low interest rates? and what is going to happen when (not if, when) this ends? And in the mean time, how low will our currency go?

The last decade has shown that bubbles can expand to enormous proportions and for longer than we expect, and contract commensurately - and more quickly than anyone thinks. Then - the pundits will all say "I told ya so".

Earlier, someone asked me whether, in light of the first 950 (June-ish), the C could go up. If I recall correctly, I said yes - it could down to 590, or up to 1050, in the near term.

I told ya so. And I'm telling ya agin.

 

[Birchtree]

The S&P at 1044 would be up 57% from the March lows - pretty close to the 53% advance in the first major up leg of the 1975-1976 cyclical bull market. It's all in the history my good man - we are being liquidity driven to highs. And remember it takes courage to be an oinker. Oink!

 

[amoeba]

The S&P at 1044 would be up 57% from the March lows - pretty close to the 53% advance in the first major up leg of the 1975-1976 cyclical bull market. It's all in the history my good man - we are being liquidity driven to highs. And remember it takes courage to be an oinker. Oink!

You should know, since you lost 40% of your TSP last year slothing around in the I fund. Last time I was 100% C-fund, the market was at something like 1,300 when I bailed, like 8 yrs ago.

But on more current note - like I said, my move to G was temporary, and in hopes of avoiding a market dip, and cashing out of F north of a share price of 13. I could have done that today as well and been a little better off , but them's what happens when you don't know the future...

I am going to wait it out for 2 more biz days - then go back into a spread of G/F/CSI, probably a 25/30/45 split. That will be the most out of G for me since the dark ages of the dot-com boom/bust.

Remember the others?....the housing boom/bust....the terror bust/boom....and the oil boom/bust. The only sure thing is that there will be another.

When this one is over, perhaps they'll call it the government spending boom/bust.

 

[amoeba]

Well, two biz days past - and only down 2% below my cash-out last week - not enough pullback IMO. Also, the market gapped today and was flat.....suggesting some resistance at S&P 980...I think I'll wait it out today to see what the last half hour shows, then see where we are.

The Lowe's earnings sucked today, no surprise on top of the retail sales miss last week. Problem was, that retail sales didn't have the effect that I thought it would....so maybe the rest of this earnings week will provide some clues as to how the market emotion may react to changes in consumption.

 

[amoeba]

Well it was a flatline to the close yesterday; not a hint of the deadcat bounce today in the I-fund. Shoulda woulda coulda made some money, but I didn't.....and if this evening's trading in Asia is an indication of what's to come; I had that one day chance and required perfect timing because, guess what? That's right, Asia down again....someone recently mentioned that this market tends to follow (not lead) ours, but that may be changing.

So what we have is see-saw action in both stocks and bonds, with no consistent trend and alot of bad news. The half-empty view is that the correction has more to go, the half-fulls would say the mildness of the correction shows underlying strength.

Still, the last few pullbacks have had more than a day below the 20 dma....and the deadcatting isn't new and can really suck the life out of the suckers.

 

[amoeba]

I don't understand the mid-day bounce based on one week's oil inventory draw; or what's so magic about 990. Especially following China's jump off a cliff yesterday. Maybe -5% is pocket change for that market. In any case, go figure. I can't.

IFTs of the day are mixed; smart money (i.e., big returners) moving out, or in. End of day might have some movement, for a change.....we'll see.

 

[Steadygain]

what's so magic about 990...we'll see.

On it's own 990 is insignificant and has no magic

If you combine the number 990 with the pathways of Jupiter, Saturn, and Mars and factor in their collective influence then there is absolutely no doubt it is FULL of MAGIC.

Most of us are still in the dark on this matter and see the Markets and the Economy as something within 'our control' and based on the lifestyles we have and the way we interact with one another.

But the truth is - everything is under the control of sometime much bigger and with the planetary allignment between now and 10/12/09 - the number 990 will herald in 'The New Age'

 

[Boghie]

I don't understand the mid-day bounce based on one week's oil inventory draw; or what's so magic about 990. Especially following China's jump off a cliff yesterday. Maybe -5% is pocket change for that market. In any case, go figure. I can't.

IFTs of the day are mixed; smart money (i.e., big returners) moving out, or in. End of day might have some movement, for a change.....we'll see.

Amoeba,

August is never a good time to be bouncing around trying to 'play the market'. We will end a little up, or a little down. Just not worth the aggravation. I have 17% to invest if the market corrects, and can move another 17% into G/F without much concern about giving way on an upswing. One day plays are not the TSP thang anymore.

Where I am at I am concerned about is that if I don’t grab all I can while the grabbing is good I will lose to inflation, taxes, or to a massive pull back. If August is a bit up I am happy. If a bit down, who cares?

Regardless, my time in the market it short. Who wants to be in an unstable market in the months of September and October?

Anyone…

Anyone at all…

So, if one completely missed mid-March through August 30 boom (or boomlette) then apparently one is hoping for change in September and October. Good Luck…