-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
div>
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
I have a couple new ideas on investing based on sentiment as well, and they say get the heck out. One of those involves any time birchtrees rank is above mine, like now.
But we shall see.........tuesday-wednesday bigtech earnings shall be interesting.....there are many that think AAPL will surprise, for example.
wv-girl
Member
Don'cha think that maybe next week will be down. We did just have a monster move this week.(That i happened to miss cause a little thing called a JOB got in the way--damn I hate when that happens
) Nothing goes straight up or down. And you are right, this is a traders market. Thanks TSP for fff'ing that up for us.
Birch--you would probably be a whole lot richer if you traded one or two of your stocks on a weekly basis. Perish the thought. If you did it in a Roth, no taxes to consider. :laugh:
Birchtree
Well-known member
wv-girl,
My oceanic pulled down $119K last week by just being invested - I doubt any Roth IRA could do that unless I initiated it when I was seventeen, which was a very good year for small town boys with independent means, it's impossible to build the necessary base to really rack the dollars. I believe this market is going to go back up as fast as it came down and if that is the case I will buy all the way up. The only question is - how high is up.I still think something is up with CIT; someone has some information; you don't see ~500 million shares trade 80% up in one day for nothing; and right now, that's what they have officially.....nothing.....no financing.....that's bad for a bank:
So what is this? Another BAC and C, or another enron and lehman?
I smell a government bailout.....I smelled one last thursday and was going to throw pocket change after CIT, but didn't....because of government denials.....hmmmmmmmm.......
Anyway, I stand by my earlier prediction - CIT bankruptcy = armageddon in the small stocks, especially retailers.
So if you would kindly post what you know about CIT's bailout (yeah/neah) and the source of your information on my account talk thread, that would be really great. Thanks a bunch.
Birchtree
Well-known member
There was talk Friday reported on CNBC that Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan were in talks with CIT to provide a short term loan to hold them over. I suspect that some of the private equity guys will step in to provide funding also. This is all bullish because it denotes that nongovernmental funding is available in the capital markets showing better health than a few months ago. I'm going to hold my CIT and if it gets over $3 I'll pile in for more shares - three years down the road it will be golden - the same applies for C.
I believe the big boys (GS, JPM, etc) are in talks regarding debtor in possession financing; which would occur after bankruptcy. The stock is south of 70 cents again. Should know before noon monday; I'd like to know now. If CIT survives, which I doubt, they will hit $3 in less than two weeks.Hey:
So it looks like the CIT story is, in fact, some financing prior to bankruptcy - which may or may not foreclose bankruptcy - as the company isn't making any money anyhow.....but if someone knows the next couple weeks on this play, post it here.....it still sounds wishy-washy....
And while we're talking advance info, we all know earnings on AAPL is due after close tomorrow; stock all over the place today; does anyone have the scoop? I'm guessing a meets and that's all.
I held out bailing - but may IFT altogether out for a day or two - as anything short of a "beats" by all the tech will sell the good news, wed-fri.Today is the top of the market for all equity TSP funds (C,S, I)for the rest of 2009. Buy on the dips, but if you cash out anywhere near where it is today, you are golden. This is it. WAY too much money flowing into asian equities all at once, this will correct. Tech stocks mixed (only bcz of AAPL); otherwise "eh".
Of course, if you want to ride it down into the S&P 800's, or lower, into 13% unemployment in 2010, or into another 20% down in home prices, be my guest.Could I have been any more wrong? probably not; up 2% today - but - bonds have topped. I am having a hard time figuring out this market at all:
a) jumped in early in late february, knife catching; went negative
b) missed the bottom, waited for a reprieve, that didn't happen
c) jumped in at the first 50/200 dma crossover; and the market went down; more losses; stayed in
d) missed the next bottom at 879;
e) a second 50/200 dma crossover; and no apparent reason - just a bunch of money coming in - and now we're at 970; so what now?
Birchtree's call of a top at 1050 seems not to far away, but, nothing seems out of the realm of possibility - that is - except fundamentals;
-like unemployment; what the heck is the market doing going up on a -550K initial claims number? what is up with that?
-why is the market going up on CIT's pending bankruptcy? is that supposed to be good?
answer: this is emotionally driven; and, in part, stimulus (printed money) driven.
I will try to keep from the knee-jerk reaction of reversing course.......unless I see something different....the market just went from overbought to really overbought.
It can go higher - and has - but the P/E of the USA market (or Asian stocks, for that matter) are just out of whack....time will tell
Boghie
Well-known member
Amoeba,
We expect another big unemployment gain. We expect CIT to go belly up. More to come...
We no longer have to feed, clothe, transport, service, whatever the baby boom bulge. We simply DO NOT have to produce or import as much stuff. For example, how many 65 year olds buy a new car every three years or flip a house every two.
Birchtree
Well-known member
amoeba,
If I were you, and I'm not, I'd sell everything and quietly walk away. FWIW my top on the SPX is 1700 - not 1050. I'm only kidding about selling everything - but you have to decide if we are in a new bull market or not. If you think we are in an early stage bull leg buy some sticky pants - be right and sit tight. You can't time this bull.As if anyone noticed:
I jumped waist deep into the market today; I probably will do another IFT to G-fund this wk just as protest to the restrictions - so take them apples. If the hyper-optimism in this lame market holds up, anything in line with the initial claims number will be bought. A good 1% move will take me closer to the minor goal of beating the G-fund, something I didn't do last year. Otherwise, it's downward again - my rank is a joke - just call me stupid. If I had been going all in this year - I would be down ~4% on my moves. I can't deny the near inflection of the 200 dma, had to give it a try.Another day, another move, another big loss/miss-step:
Like clockwork - any time I touch the market - it goes down; and any time I lay off, it continues to rise like a rocket. My plan is to wait for another day of Asia tonight, and the claims number tomorrow; I have some free moves to G, in case I have to stop loss; but think that anything North of 950 is worth hanging onto - or even doubling down next week.
If it start's looking real bad (i.e., 800's, AGAIN!!!) - then bar the door - we may be in for a big one, a decline that is..........gotta know when to runturbo23dog
Member
today's loss was relatively minor of less than 5 points. I'm hoping for some lift by Friday...
So it is....Asia is up again.....and you have lots of friends.....with money piling in from everywhere; will see how things go with the claims number this wk, some more earnings next....and so on.
Not that I think the recession is over.....that will depend on consumption in the absence of stimuli. But that is later, and at the moment nobody cares, so neither will I.
Dumb money rules!!! (until it doesn't)Asia opened strongly up, AGAIN.........unempl.claims came in in-line, minimal revision to last month; non-farms next thurs is expected drop -333K (lower than recently) - - - I don't see much negatory in the next few days.....judging from the lack of advance IFT's on this website, looks like everyone is holding their cards, for now. As will I. Here's to expecting another up day tomorrow..........and maybe me passing the G fund in the rankings!!!Similar threads
- Article
