amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Taken with a grain of salt, oh white-barked one, oh yee of negatory 8%, not having executed an IFT in 8 months, and not being out of equities during the entire slide, and hopefully, oh yee of sense-of-humoratory:


Stock markets can fluctuate on emotion; earnings do not; unemployment does not; numbers do not lie. Earnings are down 38% in Q1 vs. a year ago. Unemployment is up, and trending farther up.

A couple more foreboding signs.....take a look at the SPY volumes this week....note the decline? Saw the same thing in mid sept 08, and late january 09. Complacency. Buying and holding. Trader's market based on technicals. Over the long term, fundamentals will rule.

 

[Birchtree]

Well the R2K is up 5.11% and is now up close to 40% off the March lows. At 878 the SPX will be up 30%. A lot more to come for the Hoofhearted one.

 

[Boghie]

The Market Leads...

Amoeba,

The market leads the economy.

I happen to agree with you though. I don't think this is a major bull run. More like the battle at Bull Run. Kinda hyped one side up and made the other cry.

I also see a problem in the Obamasia convincing the ignits in Congress (or waylaying them) that his policies have been 'instrumental in righting BusHitlers sinking ship'. Got to bail before he or that drone at Treasury (the one guy they have managed to hire - sitting in the dark designing itty bitty green cars or whatever) opens his yak. Or that idiot at budget spews out his plan to cut his massive deficit in half.

Your plan to dump out might be the wisest choice. I was, ahem, actually busy today and didn't pay any attention

 

[Birchtree]

Come back Shane and tell me more - you are interesting waving that red flag in front of Ferdinand.

 

[amoeba]

I have nothing to post; nothing at all; nothing till the end of the month. I am still a third of a point behind the G fund; positive territory. I checked my returns on my premier money market at the bank; and it gets 1.25% APY; with $50,000 minimum; of course, that's better than washing 8% down the toilet on still-overpriced real estate or stocks; but treading water is nothing to boast about. I am below my target of beating the G-fund, but getting closer. Remember those days when we got 8% on our checking accounts?

Another day, another bankrupt retailer (locally) - Gottschalks - oh what the hell, it's just another hundred stores and 10,000 employees. Oh, but the recession is over. Tell that to the people who don't have jobs.

It isn't over, till it's over. What goes up, will go down, at least that's the way it's been since what? 1990?

 

[Steadygain]

Another day, another bankrupt retailer (locally) - Gottschalks - oh what the hell, it's just another hundred stores and 10,000 employees. Oh, but the recession is over. Tell that to the people who don't have jobs.

Why so gloomy my friend?? and why now of all times????

The Recession has been striving to break through for quite awhile but the Political Powers some how stalled the dam from breaking through. Finally - the Political Powers essentially ran out of ammo and the Recession came through with tremendous power.

The last Quarter of 2008 and the first Quarter of 2009 were like nothing we'd seen before (minus the Great Depression). The biggest difference between the Great Depression and our Current Recession is the manner in which the DATA was revealed (or acknowledged). Today we do not disclose many elements that would give a far more accurate picture.

So NO ONE is suggesting the Recession is OVER - it's far from over.

The only thing we're concerned about is the TSP and more specifically C, S, and I.

It isn't over, till it's over. What goes up, will go down, at least that's the way it's been since what? 1990?

I'm going to guess you're a fairly new investor. Since 1990 I (and many others) have made a fortune. You can call them Bubbles (Tech) - as is the more trendy term - or Waves or Cycles. But whatever you want to call it since 1900 we have had one of the Greatest and Longest Running Bull Markets so far.

There is the Yin and the Yang - Expansion and Contraction - and the Financial Markets are not able to break from Nature or the Natural Course.

TOO MUCH EXPANSION - and TO FAST - is not Healthy and overall HEALTH must dominate over everything - to keep the balance and for things to remain strong and prosper. So we were LONG OVER DUE to have a Major Recession. Of course we are too caught up in the euphoria of getting RICH to recognize the dangers of rapid and prolonged Expansion. Equally the dread of Contraction is overwhelming and feels worse than the pleasure of Expansion.

But MY FRIEND - you miss everything if you believe 'What goes up will go down ... 1990' It is much more the opposite. When the stocks of very solid companies have lost 85% of their value; when all Major Funds have lost 60% of their value; When Credit has been virtually FROZEN; Consumer Confidence going to records lows; Millions and Millions of Jobs vanishing and Houses increasing being foreclosed and dwlinging to a small fraction of their previous value - ALL THESE THINGS WILL ACCOMODATE CONTRACTION - and FORCE the Markets to the Extreme Lows.

All this only makes sense if you compare it to the past 6 or 7 years.

This is ALL a HEALTHY RESPONSE - and in the years to come what is DOWN - will go UP and those seizing this opportunity will more than triple whatever they have.

Stocks will ALWAYS proceed the Economy taking Traction - but by the time the Economy really takes Traction we could easily gain another 50%. Once TRACTION TAKES PLACE it will likely go up at least another 200 to 300%.

So don't be discouraged - it's been a long and dreadful time - but if you look at everything, we are finally heading back up.

 

[amoeba]

You guessed wrong (unless you think 23 years is "fairly new"):

That old adage of stocks preceding recovery; what I'm referring to as "will go down" is this head fake reaction in the past 6 weeks. Let's see now, how many head fakes have there been this year? two so far, and last? about 3. The drops (except for the last one, which was painful over 3-4 weeks), have been sudden and not necessarily news-related.

I'm not concerned about gaining every dollar from the bottom; when 50 dma crosses the 200 dma; and the 200 dma moves higher (not lower, as it has been for the last ~6 months); give me a call.

By the way - there's a new wave of foreclosures on the way, not related to the credit bubble; it's related to unemployment.

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks for the update.

Sorry man, I misread your other note and thought you were gloomy. Just trying to cheer ya up - is all.

Well anyway - now that I know where you are it's a lot easier to appreciate your view on things. I would say you are a REALIST and few can relate to that better than me. So the Fundamentals and the Numbers and all that CAN NOT be ignored.

The 'Fake Head' happened in the midst of the worst possible news and reports getting even worse - yet this stupid thing continued to climb - I was equally outraged and it bothered me quite a bit that things did not go as it seemed they should.

So I've got no problem with you at all - and I totally understand how you (or anyone else) would believe this is a FAKE HEAD and no doubt a NEW LOW is on the way.

So I'm cool with you and hopefully you can be cool with me. I'm going High Risk at the first chance and will stay there the rest of the year - but that's me and I am totally convinced we really did hit the LOW last month.

Most of the people I associate with did not believe we would have the V Formation - Bull Recovery. So I don't hold to this continuing as it has the past 6 weeks. I expect a substantial retracement and rolling for months and months at the very worse - or a slow steady progression up until the Economy takes traction at the best. But either way I (in my blind stupidity) believe a Bull Market has taken over.

 

[amoeba]

Thanks for the update.

Sorry man, I misread your other note and thought you were gloomy. Just trying to cheer ya up - is all.

Well anyway - now that I know where you are it's a lot easier to appreciate your view on things. I would say you are a REALIST and few can relate to that better than me. So the Fundamentals and the Numbers and all that CAN NOT be ignored.

The 'Fake Head' happened in the midst of the worst possible news and reports getting even worse - yet this stupid thing continued to climb - I was equally outraged and it bothered me quite a bit that things did not go as it seemed they should.

So I've got no problem with you at all - and I totally understand how you (or anyone else) would believe this is a FAKE HEAD and no doubt a NEW LOW is on the way.

So I'm cool with you and hopefully you can be cool with me. I'm going High Risk at the first chance and will stay there the rest of the year - but that's me and I am totally convinced we really did hit the LOW last month.

Most of the people I associate with did not believe we would have the V Formation - Bull Recovery. So I don't hold to this continuing as it has the past 6 weeks. I expect a substantial retracement and rolling for months and months at the very worse - or a slow steady progression up until the Economy takes traction at the best. But either way I (in my blind stupidity) believe a Bull Market has taken over.

Well - I don't think it's a bull; because technically the 200 dma is still declining and there is no significant change in any of the key fundamentals. It's a trader's market moving between 666 and 960 on sheer emotion. I think the end of year will be somewhere in that range as well. My gut feeling is that the emotion chip will get tired, when the true fundamentals bear out the length of the recession - whatever that is - we'll know the result - - - if it's short recession/quick recovery- one thing will happen; if it takes longer , or appears so, and there is no chip left for the gov to play - you will have another result.

 

[Birchtree]

It is possible for the internal correction to continue without a substantial decline in price, even if prices tend to move higher. Hesitation can be expensive. I actually made $10K during this correction week - that's now $363K in seven weeks. Will next week bring finally my first ever $100K week. I'll hold out my hand. As always the key personal characteristics of successful investors are humility. humility, and then hmility. Snort. Have you noticed that the Transportation index is now up better than 43% during the last seven weeks. That should send a deafening message.

 

[Boghie]

Ain't A Chartist...

Amoeba,

I don't know anything about charts and stuff, but it looks like the market is adjusting to the panic sells of October 2008 and March 2009. Basically, this uptrend is now approaching the year long downward slope of 10/2007 through 9/2008. Had we stayed on that slope we would be in a nasty correction rather than Great Depression II

So, based on analysis that I wouldn't pay to receive, I think we have about 5-10% left to the upside - then we get the joy of a standard correction slope.

However, the blathering from Congress and the White House could easily lead to panic selling again. Is that 5-10% worth the risk. Me not know...

 

[Birchtree]

Anyone that has wanted to sell is long gone and probably scared to return until we get a Dow Theory buy signal. I don't look for any real big sell days like last Monday - actually I'd be more concerned about many back to back melt up days in our future.

 

[Steadygain]

Well - I don't think it's a bull; because technically the 200 dma is still declining and there is no significant change in any of the key fundamentals. It's a trader's market moving between 666 and 960 on sheer emotion. I think the end of year will be somewhere in that range as well. My gut feeling is that the emotion chip will get tired, when the true fundamentals bear out the length of the recession - whatever that is - we'll know the result - - - if it's short recession/quick recovery- one thing will happen; if it takes longer , or appears so, and there is no chip left for the gov to play - you will have another result.

I don't think it's a BULL in the TSP MB defination of how a BULL is defined.

I've been saying over and over that we went UP way too fast and way too far. So I believe a signifincant retracement is long over due.

A BULL - by my defination means we hit a REAL LOW and therefore in the long run things can (and will) only go higher.

The most important lesson all of us can take from the incredible gains since the early March Low - is that NO ONE WOULD EVER KNOW WHERE THE LOW IS - UNTIL AFTER IT HAPPENS - AND ONLY THOSE FULLY INVESTED WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE.

A new individual I am now beginning to follow closely - thanks to Malyla (sp) - believes the REAL LOW will be in 7/09 and this is far more in line with what the Government Officials have announced.

At this point I believe the Majority of the MB - waiting to time the Real Bottom are far more likely to miss the initial 20 - 30% gain by the time they decide to get in.

Thanks for your response BTW - It's easy to follow your logic

 

[amoeba]

It is possible for the internal correction to continue without a substantial decline in price, even if prices tend to move higher. Hesitation can be expensive. I actually made $10K during this correction week - that's now $363K in seven weeks. Will next week bring finally my first ever $100K week. I'll hold out my hand. As always the key personal characteristics of successful investors are humility. humility, and then hmility. Snort. Have you noticed that the Transportation index is now up better than 43% during the last seven weeks. That should send a deafening message.

yeah, now you are down "only" 5 percent, instead of 8 percent, so far this year. I've never figured out how people can claim they "made" money when they only consider the periods that the market is up. TSP doesn't allow us to invest in a transportation index so no interest as far as this forum goes.

As far as your other comment that there isn't going to be another big down day like last monday, today wasn't chopped liver and there is the rest of the week. By then you may be remembering the Alamo.

 

[amoeba]

well, monday came and went, but the world never sleeps, and asia is negatory across the board as I speak. Here on the TSP - WV-girl, and JTH; are practicing knife-catching; something I've tried, but just not been very good at - yet; altho some of us are. Anyhow, friday's another month, and another 2 IFT's............the range for SPY has been tightening recently (815-870 or so).......I'm probably not going to make major moves until it breaks out....significantly below the 20 or draws the 200 dma to a positive trend.

 

[wv-girl]

well, monday came and went, but the world never sleeps, and asia is negatory across the board as I speak. Here on the TSP - WV-girl, and JTH; are practicing knife-catching; something I've tried, but just not been very good at - yet; altho some of us are. Anyhow, friday's another month, and another 2 IFT's............the range for SPY has been tightening recently (815-870 or so).......I'm probably not going to make major moves until it breaks out....significantly below the 20 or draws the 200 dma to a positive trend.

I haven't got it right so far this year, so don't go by me. Except, maybe, as a contraian indicator. If the SPY stays in the range you mentioned it should be ok. It was sure fighting today. Hope I don't get 'cut' too bad. Guess I got ansy a little too early? Well, no pain, no gain, or something like that. Don't plan to take the money for retirement for quite a while, so I have expanded my time horizon and chilled.

 

[amoeba]

So the market broke 870, up to 920 or so, then down mildly today; I had thoughts about wading in for a moment; but todays WSJ about the historic P/E and today's prices not being cheap at all (near historic shiller average of 15.9) knocked some sense into me.......so where do we go from here? (as the daily commentary asked)

Hmmmmmmm --- so now we're in an emotional environment when less than 600,000 lost jobs per month is good news......if memory serves......we need +40,000 jobs to keep the employment rate where it is.....

So what's the other emotional consideration in this runup is .......no matter how bad the earnings, how bad the financial situation of a company (like BAC)is .......big government will come up with some big dumptruck of money and save it or at least try to.

I'm keeping a conservative eye on things, such as the 200 dma, earnings, and unemployment numbers....none of this looks good, at least not at the moment.

Market seems toppy. but we will see this week. I say sideways for rest of month.

 

[Steadygain]

Market seems toppy. but we will see this week. I say sideways for rest of month.

That's a lot more optamistic than I was expecting.

I've actually switched over to the BEAR side and now share many of your previous views.

Looking at everything I would call this The OBAMA RALLY - which was largely spured by his continual interventions over the first few months; blended with a substantial low and many were (and are) really to catch the wave of euphoria and hope.

Finally we're reaching a 'moment' where many analyists are saying 'There is nothing to support this rally' - or 'it doesn't have legs' and all the other comments filtering through. Tom's Charts and numerous other things the WSJ would elaborate on make 'reality' very difficult to ignore.

I see things going sideways maybe another week and then a substantial progressive dive going into 7/09.

 

[Mcqlives]

Any chance of a few points up this week in your opinion? It seems that many of the bear analysts are still citing the 955 area as the turn around point with a possible retest of the March lows.

 

[Steadygain]

Any chance of a few points up this week in your opinion? It seems that many of the bear analysts are still citing the 955 area as the turn around point with a possible retest of the March lows.

I'm wondering if that question is directed to me ??

Amoeba, I'm not trying to steel your thread.

IMHO - The OBAMA RALLY still has plenty of life and at best is just now beginning to wane. I wouldn't be surprized at all if it went to a new high before it finally stops.

To me the question is not 'Is this a real BULL MARKET' and all the more the beginning of an ongoing upward cycle that will carry on over the years. Everything points to the opposite when you study the underlying features. BUT something could change between now and 7/09 - who knows ??