amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

AGG +.51% and F lost 1/2 cent. It makes no sense!!

I saw that...as I've said before; AGG and F-fund do NOT track one another - either by day, or over the long term. Some of the mutuals do track F-fund, like VBMFX, but share prices are decided after the close, just like the F-fund - so it's nothing I can watch at in the morning to tell whether to make an IFT on a suspected daily bounce from early prices. Fluctuation in share prices is fairly significant day to day and, I suspect, during the day. Wish there were some way to watch it before the IFT deadline; but there isn't, and AGG is not a very good surrogate.

Otherwise - I joined the crowd of weak-hands, hoping for a rise to near 800 by weeks' end, after which we will sell like there was no tomorrow no matter what.

Keep your finger on the button, and no oversleeping on the west coast.

 

[justbizness45]

Keep your finger on the button, and no oversleeping on the west coast.

Wish I could oversleep.

 

[alevin]

Me, I don't oversleep at all, but I get so caught up in what's happening in the am, I regularly miss getting into my account in a timely manner. Somehow I suspect it's helping me that I do all my morning reading at home, but make account changes after I get to work-usually too late to make account changes especially when I start answering phone messages once I take off my coat, or have to get ready for a meeting or something right around that time.

 

[PessOptimist]

I rarely oversleep also. When I get to work the market is 1 1/2 hour away from opening and by opening I am well in to whatever e-mails, voice-mails, trouble reports and crises of the hour from all the forepersons.

By 10 (12 EST) I am too in to whatever is happening to remember, much less to have even looked at what the market is doing. By lunch time it is too late.

It's even worse in the summer as us Arizonans don't cotton to no daylight saving time.

So Alevin I feel your pain and the pain of all the rest of you. Just another consequence of the IFT restriction.

And by the way, I am grateful to have my job in spite of my whining above.

 

[amoeba]

Well - I'm considering building my position in F-fund, which has hit my buy-in target in the 12.40-12.45 price range; I know I lost money trying to buy on the upside; so maybe I can pick the bottom on this one.

My reasoning on this is that when the bond share prices bottom out - at least the last time (in late October 2008), they did so before the stocks, and moved inversely to stocks in November 2008.

I know there were some other factors then (and since), but there could be a rotation in there to take advantage of if the wheels fall off equities this week. I think I will probably tread lightly - on the order of a 18-22% stake in F - I haven't been too good at catching knives recently.

Even if equities rally, I don't see bonds falling further as a result.........so I think my risks are, well, limited.

We will see....what happens. Good luck everyone.....

 

[350zCommTech]

Well - I'm considering building my position in F-fund, which has hit my buy-in target in the 12.40-12.45 price range; I know I lost money trying to buy on the upside; so maybe I can pick the bottom on this one.

My reasoning on this is that when the bond share prices bottom out - at least the last time (in late October 2008), they did so before the stocks, and moved inversely to stocks in November 2008.

I know there were some other factors then (and since), but there could be a rotation in there to take advantage of if the wheels fall off equities this week. I think I will probably tread lightly - on the order of a 18-22% stake in F - I haven't been too good at catching knives recently.

Even if equities rally, I don't see bonds falling further as a result.........so I think my risks are, well, limited.

We will see....what happens. Good luck everyone.....

I'm in the F fund now, and I have to disagree with your thoughts of building a position in the F fund. As a short term, 1-2 day play? Sure.

While stocks have been going down, money was not flowing into bonds. When stocks start to rally, where will the money for bonds come from? Bonds will continue to suffer from oversupply. IMHO.

 

[amoeba]

I'm in the F fund now, and I have to disagree with your thoughts of building a position in the F fund. As a short term, 1-2 day play? Sure.

While stocks have been going down, money was not flowing into bonds. When stocks start to rally, where will the money for bonds come from? Bonds will continue to suffer from oversupply. IMHO.

Well - F-fund did turn up today; I'll wait till the open to see if this continues.....if equities drop like I think they will in the next 10 days, this could be a way to turn a buck. Or not.

 

[350zCommTech]

Well - F-fund did turn up today; I'll wait till the open to see if this continues.....if equities drop like I think they will in the next 10 days, this could be a way to turn a buck. Or not.

Yes, it did, but reluctantly.

Notice the small gain of 4.5 cents. I'm just sitting in the F fund biding my time while I wait for capitulation in the market.

This Thursday is big for bond auctions.

 

[Frixxxx]

Yes, it did, but reluctantly.

Notice the small gain of 4.5 cents. I'm just sitting in the F fund biding my time while I wait for capitulation in the market.

This Thursday is a big for bond auctions.

Friday bad for employment numbers.....

 

[amoeba]

well boyz:

I held off on changing my position today; I know you saw the market go flat, but look at the volume on SPY and QQQQ - nothing near the half billion and up figure we saw last fall on the sharp down days;

and look at the ^VIX - ......rising, but in the low 50's.

nothing there to indicate fear or panic, looks like alot of bulls, buy and holds, and short term traders; nothing solid;

If there is a sell-off, this past week was NOT IT.

It is tempting to buy the employment number (i.e., the bigger the job loss, the bigger the buying of stocks on bad news), which means everyone else is, so I doubt I will.

The other thing to keep in mind is.....if (and that's a big IF) there is a bounce......say, to something like 770 or so in one day, what do you think will happen after that? (answer: SELL, SELL, SELL - TO THE DEPTHS OF HELL)

Once the market drops to the mid-500's, say, when unemployment reaches 12% or so this June, GM is ch. 13, home prices down another 20%, and some more tasty morsels, that might be a buy. Or maybe not.

 

[Boghie]

A Truly Lovely Chart...

Amoeba,

You gotta love this chart:

by CalculatedRisk on 3/03/2009 03:49:00 PM

Nice pictures of black swans, the S&P chart, and the above ditty of exciting times in the market...

Still going to move a little into C/S tomorrow. I don't think I have the stomache to make any bold moves. And, that crappy IFT limit means my IFTs must (should ) be forward trades...

 

[amoeba]

Still losing money - with a measly 3% in equity funds X 10% drop = 0.3% loss.

Very uneasy - ^vix stable at 50, spy volume under 500 million, NFP due out tomorrow at the open - and expectation is that it will disappoint, if it doesn't market may deadcat one more time........but then its heading south.

The housing plan is a total joke. A temporary handout/interest rate reduction; a free lunch refinance to some people, pissing off the rest who don't qualify; has all sorts of loopholes, such as allowing multi-unit homes to qualify, probably will have a bunch of investors moving into some house they want to refinance - and bailing after they get the money. A bunch of crap. Fortunately - it only pees away another $75B, but unfortunately, it will only delay the inevitable shakeout of home prices which must occur in order for the market to stabilize at fair values supportable by household incomes. temporary 2% loans, and refi's of houses to 105% of appraised value is dumb banking practice. No bank would even think of anything so stupid, especially in a declining home value market. Traditional 80% is fair - and that's what it is for everyone else.

 

[amoeba]

Asia down across the board - i must be out of my mind to have even 3% in the stock funds. Looks like the concensus about tomorrow is not good.

There will be a gap at the open - which way, we will all know soon.

 

[Corepuncher]

Asia down across the board - i must be out of my mind to have even 3% in the stock funds. Looks like the concensus about tomorrow is not good.

There will be a gap at the open - which way, we will all know soon.

Futures are stable right now.

I'm looking for a good short covering rally soon in which to sell!

Target = 740

 

[amoeba]

Friday I took off skiing; got sick:

So did the market - gapped up, closed down, but not much. Today (3/9/09) we are sideways, with more complacent ^VIX; if I didn't know so little about what was going on - I would term this painful steady decline as an expression of denial, not capitulation. Nobody knows when to fold, walk away, and/or run, so they hold. What do they think they are holding for? That big rally? If that is the case, it will be the sucker of all sucker's rally. Less than 15% on the S&P, and a subsequent sell-off to the depths of oblivion. (i.e., 550 or less)

Where is that big day (-10% down) we all were expecting as a buy-in sign? Maybe the retail sales later this week will be it.

 

[mojo]

Friday I took off skiing; got sick:

So did the market - gapped up, closed down, but not much. Today (3/9/09) we are sideways, with more complacent ^VIX; if I didn't know so little about what was going on - I would term this painful steady decline as an expression of denial, not capitulation. Nobody knows when to fold, walk away, and/or run, so they hold. What do they think they are holding for? That big rally? If that is the case, it will be the sucker of all sucker's rally. Less than 15% on the S&P, and a subsequent sell-off to the depths of oblivion. (i.e., 550 or less)

Where is that big day (-10% down) we all were expecting as a buy-in sign? Maybe the retail sales later this week will be it.

I completely agree. It's like a slow bleeding. I just hope that big down day isn't today.

 

[amoeba]

sum beech: the share prices just came out, and the F-fund declined for a third day down to 12.43 or so. If that lame duck ever hits 12.50 I am out of there. what a loser, it's down quite a bit from the 12.6-12.66 I bought in at - never touched 12.6 again; so much for watching to see when a cycle is broken to buy in; it just starts another one (to the down side).

Ready to move when the "big one" hits; I think there will be plenty of potential near term bad news biz failures to guess on when that is going to be. Take your pick.

 

[amoeba]

pigs get slaughtered, this is sucker rally, and I'm not a pig:

I bailed on my 3% of CSI, pared down to 5% F, 95% G; still have one keg of dry powder for the expected "big one" (down day >10%) - until then; I'm down 1/4% on the year.....could be worse.

 

[amoeba]

Got my IFT in yesterday with under 20 seconds to spare, wish I missed it, bcz I'd have gained more today.

That retail # and the revision stunned me; altho the reaction to it did not. I don't know what to think right now. I still don't think "it" is over. Market could go either way - but this economy is not on it's feet, especially the banks. I wouldn't own citibank, BAC, others, if you paid me. If these stocks could go negative, they would.

The wild card in all of this is unpredictable future government interventions; and what will happen when those interventions end. If anyone knows - feel free to reply.

 

[350zCommTech]

The wild card in all of this is unpredictable future government interventions; and what will happen when those interventions end. If anyone knows - feel free to reply.

Retail sales were better than expected due to higher gasoline prices.

The PPT has been active all day. Started this morning when Europe was about to go through the gates of hell.

Where the $#%# were they yesterday when I was in the market?

Oh well, I was wrong and now I have to wait until next month.