amoeba's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Sell everything and head for Cuba.

 

[amoeba]

Retail sales were better than expected due to higher gasoline prices.

The PPT has been active all day. Started this morning when Europe was about to go through the gates of hell.

Where the $#%# were they yesterday when I was in the market?

Oh well, I was wrong and now I have to wait until next month.

What is "PPT"? (brainlock - all I'm thinking is "powerpoint"; google unsucccessful)

 

[amoeba]

"plunge protection team"?

So this 80 pt S&P rally was another emotional reaction to hot air?

 

[Corepuncher]

"plunge protection team"?

So this 80 pt S&P rally was another emotional reaction to hot air?

Yes. yet another reaction rally in anticipation of government "action." We all know what has happened EVERY TIME the government has intervened....the rally sells off.

 

[Warrenlm]

the rally sells off.

Matt is predicting in his blog a return to the SPY sixes next week.

 

[amoeba]

Matt is predicting in his blog a return to the SPY sixes next week.

sixes, as in 600's S&P, I presume. This rally can eat my shorts. I am NOT buying into it. Screw it. This is not "the" bottom. Nothing has changed in the economy over the last 10 biz days. I see credit tightening further in the swaps and spreads. In the near term - I see problems aplenty in the survival (no less profitability) of major banks and automakers, and AIG, and small businesses across the board. I see more unemployment, and, for those who are employed - less retirement (meaning less opportunities for replacement/promotion).

Bernanke giving TV interviews = desperation.

holding onto 1 keg dry powder, if needed, amoeba out.

 

[amoeba]

I gave some more thought about my last move, a bad one, and discovered that my basic analysis was correct, but I just was impatient; jumped in at the first spike in volatility, and the initial daily sell-off, only to discover that this wasn't even the beginning.

So next time, which may be next week - or the week after; I'll be more patient. Of course, the market will quickly challenge it's lows' of 660 - but that doesn't have to be "the bottom".

I'm thinking next sell-off won't be the "water torture" 2 week type; it will be monstrous profit taking off of this rally - which was based on a whole lot of nothing in terms of fundamentals.

Here's to looking at 650 and below, kid. Also looking to cash in on that 5% of F fund I've been holding for awhile. Hoping for something in the 12.6-12.7 share price to bail and wait till April.

 

[HedgeHog]

I gave some more thought about my last move, a bad one, and discovered that my basic analysis was correct, but I just was impatient; jumped in at the first spike in volatility, and the initial daily sell-off, only to discover that this wasn't even the beginning.

So next time, which may be next week - or the week after; I'll be more patient. Of course, the market will quickly challenge it's lows' of 660 - but that doesn't have to be "the bottom".

I'm thinking next sell-off won't be the "water torture" 2 week type; it will be monstrous profit taking off of this rally - which was based on a whole lot of nothing in terms of fundamentals.

Here's to looking at 650 and below, kid. Also looking to cash in on that 5% of F fund I've been holding for awhile. Hoping for something in the 12.6-12.7 share price to bail and wait till April.

I agree with your post. Were probably not out of the woods yet and patience is golden. Also the markets gets oversold and a mouse fart will kick it into an upward trend. We haven't been getting the big price swings of last Oct./Nov. and I would like to understand that dynamic a little better. With the noon deadline (1800 here in Europe) it is good to know why the dow isn't going to swing 500 points up the same day as a buy. Anyway best to you my one celled friend, good trading. HH

 

[amoeba]

I agree with your post. Were probably not out of the woods yet and patience is golden. Also the markets gets oversold and a mouse fart will kick it into an upward trend. We haven't been getting the big price swings of last Oct./Nov. and I would like to understand that dynamic a little better. With the noon deadline (1800 here in Europe) it is good to know why the dow isn't going to swing 500 points up the same day as a buy. Anyway best to you my one celled friend, good trading. HH

well - it's not one dynamic any more....I used to think you needed extremes in volatility, but maybe a week of moderately high volatility has a similar effect. Sort of cumulative anxiety. Hard to say what was happening on either the downside or the recent upside. And, as you say, mouse farts are coming into play.

Speaking of said farts, Geithner and the rest of the PPT are leaking parts of their toxic waste disposal plan in the last few hours - probably so they can change them over the weekend if they don't like the talkshows on saturday. Pretty lame. I'm suspicious of all of it. No way the Gov can moneyprint it's way out of this mess. There may be a recovery, but there needs to be a bottom first.

 

[Birchtree]

The Federal Government will announce Monday a three-pronged plan to rid the financial system of toxic assets. If the plan is welcomed the market should rally strongly.

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

The Federal Government will announce Monday a three-pronged plan to rid the financial system of toxic assets. If the plan is welcomed the market should rally strongly.

All their going to do is eliminate the use of the words Toxic Assets to describe the toxic assets! A rose by any other name...

It's like eliminating the phrase "enemy combatants." These people are still our enemy, and they are fighting against us, but we can't call them enemy combatants. What do we call them then, Freedom Fighters?:blink:

 

[amoeba]

I honestly don't know what went on today:

Another toxic asset plan - whole bunch of "stuff" - that will cost a whole bunch more money.

I think we've heard that one before. Not sure why the market reacted the way it did this time.

No explanation. Anyway, the recession didn't end over the last two weeks, and unemployment is rising fast.

 

[Scrappy]

amoeba,
were you the one who posted info on Charles Nenner a few months back? I never heard of him before reading on the MB. Either way, do you think there is any vindication to his latest predictions/cycles explanation based on what is occurring?

His interviews are hard for me to interpret but I believe he predicted a bottom in mid March followed by a rally into April/May.

 

[amoeba]

wasn't me scrappy:

But just for anyone else - just a quick hint if you rode it up to 800; ummmm, yahhhh,

now that people have thought that 2 weeks ago was the bottom, guess what this is - - - - the "Peak", perhaps?

------so where do we go from here? to 900 or below 700. next few days will be interesting..........I still see some unemployment/earnings downside........perhaps a pause in the downward trend in the housing market.......but not a clear bottom, not yet. Could be some investor/first time interest; but then some dumping by investors who bought in on the way down. And then there's the government potentially meddling in some totally unforeseeable way.....hard to invest on sheer speculation of what get's dreamed up over each weekend in DC.

The rest of this year should be interesting.

 

[Birchtree]

I would certainly consider staying right where you are - you may not realize exactly how much danger there is out here in the wilderness. This is not a time for courage and heroics. Let me make the next 30% gain - you don't need it like I do.

 

[momacs]

amoeba,
were you the one who posted info on Charles Nenner a few months back? I never heard of him before reading on the MB. Either way, do you think there is any vindication to his latest predictions/cycles explanation based on what is occurring?

His interviews are hard for me to interpret but I believe he predicted a bottom in mid March followed by a rally into April/May.

I had seen Nenner on cnbc and asked about him somewhere on the message board. Here's a website with several of his interviews. He had called for the market to go up through the middle of March and then go back down. http://charlesnenner.com/

 

[amoeba]

air is coming out of the balloon, again, - - - another slow hiss or a burst?

 

[amoeba]

I'm going to play the "emotion" ticket for a few months; where I pretend that benign, ineffective moves such as TARP and talk about uptick rules actually mean something. Although they have no effect on earnings or unemployment, it causes people to wade into the market; fine.

I think its dumb money, but if that's what is causing these fluctuations, I can play that game. Up 0.03% on 11 IFT's so far. whip-dee-doo.

Time to put my money to work; or throw it down the toilet - risking 10% in I and C for the remainder of this week. We'll see.

 

[amoeba]

No IFT's on friday, so I bailed on today's gap up. I have to ignore the impulse to weigh my moves against the IFT limit; get out while the getting's good.

I'll again keep my eye on ^VIX patterns; volume on the financial ETF's; and reaction to earnings.....see you all next month.

 

[Birchtree]

Yee of so little faith in the bullish message.