amoeba's Account Talk

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Of course there's "a chance":

The main chance is that the market is below the 200 dma and that is looked at as major resistance; the other possibility is the emotional ticket that this rally hasn't seen consecutive down days........for that reason the big down days are followed by some sort of "reverse capitulation".......

Problem with that is this isn't a bull market. It may have gone up, but earnings have not, employment has not, basic materials/oil prices have not.

Near term (June-Oct) upside is to S&P 955-1000. Downside range difficult to say........somewhere between 590 and 870.
 
Omoeba and Steady,

Thanks for the quick replies! Both of you provided me with an insight into your outlooks for the near (and long) term (590?!:sick:!).
I know that there is a chance of getting another 2 or 3 points upside this week...I was just hoping you guys could put a point spread on it:cheesy:!
I think Steady is accurate when he says that this may be the start of an ongoing upward cycle (a bull?). I am not saying that we will not see significant downward action in the coming couple of months but I hope (and think that it will be) that at the end of 2009 we will all be in the green!

Again, thanks for your responses!
 
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I did misunderstand you...but now I am clear.

I just hope to get a couple of points up this week but, with all the shares of companies being piled on the market, I have my doubts that the market values will be able to stay up. Especially when you pile on GM's daily gloom.

It looks like my private investments in Asian markets are my best hope for the near future. And even then, the dollar is at it's lowest since December/January so how low can it go? If we see it continue lower then will there be a repeat of the January and February markets?

Yesterday I had not done enough digging but, after a couple of hours last night, I see where the 590 range is possible if not probable over the next 2 to 3 months.

Amoeba, thanks for the use of your thread and your insight. I'll let you get back to a topic of your choice!

-mcq
 
This sort of thing is what you are paying for:

This is what press releases on Yahoo finance are using as an example of "success" of the loan modification program (i.e. warehouse workers borrowing 400 large for 1,200 a month using government subsidized loans)

"There are, of course, lucky homeowners like Daniel Iturriaga, 45, a warehouse worker from Compton, Calif. Working with a counselor from Springboard, a nonprofit counseling group, Iturriaga was able to get JPMorgan Chase & Co. and mortgage finance company Fannie Mae to modify his home loan.
He's going from a monthly payment of about $2,300 to about $1,275. After a three-month trial period, it should be final in mid-June.
"It's a long process, but I still have a little hope to stay in my home" said Iturriaga, who bought his home for about $400,000 in 2005 and has seen houses on the same block sell for about half as much. "I'm pretty happy."

Great........massive government programs being used to keep people in houses, who bought too much house, make too little money, don't want to (or can't) comply with the terms of their loan; so some en masse government programs bails them out.

Hmmmmmmmmm. $400 K for $1,200 a month. Where do the rest of us sign up?
 
refinancing loans for $400,000; using collateral worth $250K; I'm assuming no bank in their right mind would do this if the gov weren't underwriting the potential loss in some way....

does anyone else smell this colossal recipe for disaster?
 
amoeba said:
so the market broke 870, up to 920 or so, then down mildly today; i had thoughts about wading in for a moment; but todays wsj about the historic p/e and today's prices not being cheap at all (near historic shiller average of 15.9) knocked some sense into me.......so where do we go from here? (as the daily commentary asked)

hmmmmmmm --- so now we're in an emotional environment when less than 600,000 lost jobs per month is good news......if memory serves......we need +40,000 jobs to keep the employment rate where it is.....

So what's the other emotional consideration in this runup is .......no matter how bad the earnings, how bad the financial situation of a company (like bac)is .......big government will come up with some big dumptruck of money and save it or at least try to.

I'm keeping a conservative eye on things, such as the 200 dma, earnings, and unemployment numbers....none of this looks good, at least not at the moment.

Market seems toppy. But we will see this week. I say sideways for rest of month.
Click to expand...


told ya so!
 
Can I join you on the lily pad - move over to make room. Now is the time to sell everything right? Or would you prefer I lower the hoist. I've got one with a really long extension.
 
Glad to see you finally took a position in the S and I funds - I'll watch for you in my rear view mirror as you gain traction.
 
amoeba said:
Of course there's "a chance":

The main chance is that the market is below the 200 dma and that is looked at as major resistance; the other possibility is the emotional ticket that this rally hasn't seen consecutive down days........for that reason the big down days are followed by some sort of "reverse capitulation".......

Problem with that is this isn't a bull market. It may have gone up, but earnings have not, employment has not, basic materials/oil prices have not.

Near term (June-Oct) upside is to S&P 955-1000. Downside range difficult to say........somewhere between 590 and 870.
Click to expand...


Next time I make a stupid move, will somebody remind me to listen to my own advice? Those who checked the records will see that, after 15 IFT's, I almost equaled the G-fund. Then kerploosh, then a short-covering rally last friday, then today. I am looking at a 1% paring of my TSP, on an investment of only 20% in equities, in a week's time; and it would have been worse if I hadn't a) averaged out last week, and b) counterbalanced with F-fund.

The housing market is looking, well, not good here out west. Everybody is jumping out on the interest rate hikes - nobody is buying anything except foreclosures. Every 4th house is for sale. Every 3rd piece of commercial real estate is vacant.

Recovery of what? (government spending?)

If it wasn't for poolman's wade-in (smarter than most), I would be gathering provisions for mortal fear of a "big one" (double digit week). Let's see the government spend its way out of that.
 
well - I've been looking for exit points on the 1/3 I have in the various funds to cut losses on an averaging out scenario; kind of interesting that the market shrugged off the job claims number today; could be a technical bounce off the 50 dma's, at least for the C-fund.

I'm still kinda disappointed the 200/50 dma crossovers did not hold; I know I used the simples and not the exponentials....but I thought it was more of a sure thing than trying to catch a knife or pick "the" bottom.

Apparently - I was wrong about that - at least so far.
 
well it is a good day for me - how good will have to wait for the share prices to come up as the TSP.gov website does not have them posted yet (and is down right now on an unscheduled outage); so don't believe what's on the home page of this site as to the share prices.....

In any event, if the F fund is north of 12.80 for a second day in a row....another move is in the works for me. Namely - lots of G-fund.

The resilience of the market in the face of the unemployment numbers.....continues to defy logic. Can you imagine what it might be by the end of year? 11%, 12% more?

And what the flip when house prices reach a normal level based on inventory and demand (which, by most accounts, is another 15% less than what it is today due to the delayed foreclosure, and various temporary incentives propping up prices, all that to end this summer, if not sooner).

So riddle me this? who cares about an $8K new home buyer rebate if you can get the house for $20K less in 4 months? And, by the way, the house you got your $8K rebate with, guess what it's worth in 4 months? ($20 K less than what you paid for it).

Apparently, there is dumb money and then there is dumber, but as the home sales show - most people aren't that stupid.
 
I think that next week will be time to add to my auto-parts, homebuilder and furniture stocks - I don't want to be late to the next party. I have twenty five on my list for early in the week - it's time to begin accumulating again.
 
Hi out there:

I have a minimal amount of SI funds; which I have let ride the week. I am considering bailing into G for two reasons:

1) in advance of tech earnings (AAPL,EBAY, etc) next tues after close, on the thinking that a "meets" will be baked in and sold off. A "miss" will be really sold off.

A "beats" would be bought, or maybe sold, as good news has been selling.

2) CIT bankruptcy will be looked at as the end of the bailout mentality, and will crush the S fund, as well as some other bets. No bailout = market on its own = down.

On the other hand, if CIT gets financing elsewhere......that would be another story.....especially if the government comes out of no where, again.
 
amoeba said:
2) CIT bankruptcy will be looked at as the end of the bailout mentality, and will crush the S fund, as well as some other bets. No bailout = market on its own = down.

On the other hand, if CIT gets financing elsewhere......that would be another story.....especially if the government comes out of no where, again.
Click to expand...

Here's my take on CIT and its role in the Recovery

They will let CIT Fall - to show the incredible strength of the BANKS. This is what's taking place and very much was planned all along.

Small Businesses WILL NOT FALL - The NEWS that will dominate the weeks to come is how swiftly 'Small Businesses' were not only saved by 'The BANKS' - but how much stronger and secure they now are because of them. The STORY will equally HIGHLIGHT HOW THE STENGTH OF THE BANKS ARE EVEN STRONGER AS A RESULT OF THIS INTERCHANGE.

Then News of China's 8% Growth - and the RECOVERY Spreading and the Markets may FLY as a result.
 
well, we don't have to talk about roles in a recovery because, as consumption and employment statistics show, we are not in one.

What we are in, is a trader's market. China has so much government stimulus and their system over there is so based on cheap labor, no health care, and raping the environment, that it is impossible to tell what is going on there.

I don't see any strength in the banks; their loan portfolios are weak, and they (i.e., C, BAC, others) wouldn't even exist if it weren't for regular government intervention.

Strength of banks? They have nothing but a bunch of lousy paper. Interestingly, year-year local home prices just came out today for Sacramento.

Another -18.8%.

Emotion like yours does drive the market in short cycles.....but over time....fundamentals will rule. And they are not good.
 
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