amoeba's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I'll be your huckelberry.

 

[amoeba]

Amoeba,

August is never a good time to be bouncing around trying to 'play the market'. We will end a little up, or a little down. Just not worth the aggravation. I have 17% to invest if the market corrects, and can move another 17% into G/F without much concern about giving way on an upswing. One day plays are not the TSP thang anymore.

Where I am at I am concerned about is that if I don’t grab all I can while the grabbing is good I will lose to inflation, taxes, or to a massive pull back. If August is a bit up I am happy. If a bit down, who cares?

Regardless, my time in the market it short. Who wants to be in an unstable market in the months of September and October?

Anyone…

Anyone at all…

So, if one completely missed mid-March through August 30 boom (or boomlette) then apparently one is hoping for change in September and October. Good Luck…

Frankly, I don't see the grabbing being good right now; but where there's a gap down there will be dopes trying to fill it, or, at least there were.

I hope for nothing. The potential range in Sept-Oct is anywhere from 1050 to 600; depending on the amount of additional government intervention (impossible to predict). In any case, alot of that intervention is responsible for what you are calling a "boom" (which would reduce one's two-year loss to 15%, instead of 40%, if you were fully invested in CSI) and resulted from speculation on financials and related beneficiaries of the gov money and protection.

The near term future, either with, or without the Feds meddling in free market - is uncharted territory. Never seen anything like it.

 

[Birchtree]

When you are young being short sighted can be a problem. Clarity will come with age and experience and you have plenty of time to develope your understandings and strategies.

 

[amoeba]

I said my age? Don't think so. Maybe you're talking about someone younger like Obama. He should know that throwing money at a problem only lasts as it takes time to spend the money.

Anyhow....more action across the west pond.....Asia flopping around again.

Light volume days. I'll look for an opening.......if the price is right. And it's not, yet.

 

[Boghie]

Waiting for the Crash...

Amoeba,

We are all waiting for the fourth crash in this down (or depression) market. That didn't even happen in Depression I. By this time in the Depression cycle the market just slowly slid down to the depths. Slowly...

But, we are in uncharted territory.
Surely we must be living in interesting times.
We can dive 50% in a couple of days - a couple of days from now

I, too, want to live in exciting days. But, what if the days are no longer exiting. Wasn't October, November, and March exciting enough.

 

[Birchtree]

I spent a lot of money last fall and it certainly was exciting flying and buying on faith alone. That was a generational opportunity and most likely will not happen again any time soon.

 

[Steadygain]

I have 17% to invest …

Was wondering if you'd do me a little favor since you're officially one of my friends.

Instead of saying I have a specific % amount - which is absolutely outstanding and seriously I'm very happy for you

but anyway there is a better way to convey the message.


I think the best way to express it is: 'Hey man I've got money to burn' cause normally you won't be telling a woman that stuff and that gives it a little more class and style.

Shows your confidence and all without clarifying the details.

Well just a thought -- have a good one !

sorry Birch - didn't mean to trump your message - we were writting at the same time

 

[daf307]

It's interesting to read other peoples view of the economy. It had been a struggle for many people especially in my home state of Michigan. Are we seeing the end of the recession? Or just a lull in the storm?

 

[Steadygain]

It's interesting to read other peoples view of the economy. It had been a struggle for many people especially in my home state of Michigan. Are we seeing the end of the recession? Or just a lull in the storm?

Depends on your LOCATION and that's the most important factor

If you're in Michigan then it's just a lull in the strom

If you're in Wyoming then it's the end of the Recession

You see Space/Time are not seperate entities - they are unified and warped by Mass....

This is just my 'unique way' of welcoming you to the MB !!

 

[daf307]

Steady,
You have a good point, the Wyoming region hasn't been that affected by the recession, we have only lost a few stores & restuarants since last year. I'm glad I didn't decide to leave the AF about 5 years ago when the economy was booming.

 

[WorkFE]

Positive attitudes are recession proof.

 

[amoeba]

It's interesting to read other peoples view of the economy. It had been a struggle for many people especially in my home state of Michigan. Are we seeing the end of the recession? Or just a lull in the storm?

OK - I'll bite - since this is my account talk thread:

California is deep into recession. House prices have dropped 60-70%, and nothing sells unless it is a foreclosure or short sale. Lots of rental signs, tumbleweeds asunder everywhere. Malls closing. Anchor stores closing, big box stores closing. Remember Circuit City, Gottschalk's, Mervyn's? All gone...and still empty. I'd say in the last 2 years, at least 1/2 of small businesses have gone under. Coffee shops? I used to take pride in the local variety. Now - all the privates are gone, and even the chains (like Starbucks) are closing locations. Autos? Nobody is buying anything except during the clunker rebate period. 1/4 of the local dealerships have closed.

Lots and Lots and Lots of empty, commercial, real estate. Not only retail, but businesses as well. And, locally, my city is spending $1 billion (or, more likely, charging fees to air travelers to make an additional billion), on a new airport terminal, when traffic has declined 20%. State workers are taking home 15% less pay this next fiscal year (just like they did the last 6 months).

Tens of thousands of empty homes, many not on the market - - - just being held by banks, I can only imagine - - -

Freeway traffic has been noticeably lighter during biz hours.

No recovery to be seen here.

 

[Boghie]

OK - I'll bite - since this is my account talk thread:

California is deep into recession. House prices have dropped 60-70%, and nothing sells unless it is a foreclosure or short sale. Lots of rental signs, tumbleweeds asunder everywhere. Malls closing. Anchor stores closing, big box stores closing. Remember Circuit City, Gottschalk's, Mervyn's? All gone...and still empty. I'd say in the last 2 years, at least 1/2 of small businesses have gone under. Coffee shops? I used to take pride in the local variety. Now - all the privates are gone, and even the chains (like Starbucks) are closing locations. Autos? Nobody is buying anything except during the clunker rebate period. 1/4 of the local dealerships have closed.

Lots and Lots and Lots of empty, commercial, real estate. Not only retail, but businesses as well. And, locally, my city is spending $1 billion (or, more likely, charging fees to air travelers to make an additional billion), on a new airport terminal, when traffic has declined 20%. State workers are taking home 15% less pay this next fiscal year (just like they did the last 6 months).

Tens of thousands of empty homes, many not on the market - - - just being held by banks, I can only imagine - - -

Freeway traffic has been noticeably lighter during biz hours.

No recovery to be seen here.

Amoeba,

All I can say is yup...

I live in Enron by the Sea. California and Michigan are in the dump. They (we) won't be coming back for years. California structured its economy on bubbles. The tax base is built on bubbles. And, if your family is middle class, you are already at the next to highest tax bracket. Folks and business are moving. My one hope, things will change here - and maybe I can buy low...

I lost a lot of potential growth in my TSP account by looking at the economy around me. California used to be the bellwether state in the union. I think, now, we should look at Alabama before California.

Steady, the 17% figure is the allocation I have in G/F - which I consider to be potential investment money. You won't hear about my Oceanic Account here (or on my thread) :nuts:. Ain't got resources like that... yet... [Absolutely no insult to BT, I need to hear from the successful...]

My style if I ever do... A still small voice...

 

[Steadygain]

OK - I'll bite - since this is my account talk thread.

That's the only reason why we keep throwing things out...

and spending time here

we appreciate you and your input !

Steady, the 17% figure is the allocation I have in G/F - which I consider to be potential investment money..

Wow !! I'm sorry man :embarrest:

...thought you were referring to the AT

You're good ... you're cool .....very cool

 

[amoeba]

damn it all:

Once again, I touch the market, and it turns to coal. It doesn't matter how long it has been going up; when I put money in,,,,it flops. I left some in S and I fund on the table in deference to poolman's 1/2 in wager today, who can squeeze blood out of stones; but that's not me...obviously.

rank 173, submarined below the g-fund, and dropping, fast.

given the observations in my last post - that there's no recovery in the USA - I am dumbfounded, non-plussed, by the rise in the stock market based on what I don't know! Things here are as bad, worse, and then some, since my last post. Really bad. And that's with all the gov money being thrown around. Clunkers, rebates for new homes (like that's what the USA need? glad those programs are coming to a close) - is mucking up the statistics, and the markets were buying into it, until, of course- WHEN I PUT MY MONEY TO WORK.

"my three words" post says it all. SCREW THIS MARKET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[amoeba]

my three words were:

"get out now"


Asia is cliff-diving. Wow. Next week has some more relevant domestic economic data; on top of this week - I expect any misses to be sold; beats to be bought.

I think someone knows something. But its not me.

 

[nasa1974]

rank 173, submarined below the g-fund, and dropping, fast. quote]


amoeba,

At least your on the positive side of the tracker. I just fell to the negative side of the force and ranked 185. Keep your head up.

 

[amoeba]

today's trading pattern for C and S funds

Big drop at the open, buying at 10 am just above the 50 dma, then more buying when it crossed the opening price at 1 pm. Me suspects technicians and programs are at work.

All of this is short term stuff - - - - over time - - - - the world economy cannot survive on new printed money alone (i.e., stimuli, government rebate checks for clunkers, new homes, and other things we wouldn't buy and can't afford normally).

Even this month's employment and consumptive numbers are muddled by the extra money. November, and especially December, will provide a more truthful picture of what is really going on (recession, recovery, propped up economy that will fall like a house of cards when gov retreats).

I don't know what that is....and I'm frustrated with my track record.....

 

[Birchtree]

Prepare yourself for a parabolic move to the upside - the biggest fourth-quarter rally in a decade is on the way.

 

[Boghie]

Re: today's trading pattern for C and S funds

Big drop at the open, buying at 10 am just above the 50 dma, then more buying when it crossed the opening price at 1 pm. Me suspects technicians and programs are at work.

All of this is short term stuff - - - - over time - - - - the world economy cannot survive on new printed money alone (i.e., stimuli, government rebate checks for clunkers, new homes, and other things we wouldn't buy and can't afford normally).

Even this month's employment and consumptive numbers are muddled by the extra money. November, and especially December, will provide a more truthful picture of what is really going on (recession, recovery, propped up economy that will fall like a house of cards when gov retreats).

I don't know what that is....and I'm frustrated with my track record.....

Amoeba,

Get ready for tomorrows boom. Not a boomlette. A boom. or

October is always a month of worry. Got to be able to lose money four or five sessions in a row before bailing to the Lilly Pad. The market is always going to go in 2% - 5% gain/loss cycles. Its when you have a consistent pattern that moves should be made.

However, given October of last year, a four session loss of 10%+ occured between 9/30 and 10/6.

That would hurt.

But, how many crashes of a lifetime can you expect in a lifetime?