amoeba's Account Talk

[Boghie]

Amoeba, My Friend...

Kalefornea makes a grab
We jig, they jag
Kalefornea secedes - broke
by Kalefornea is Broke​

While Calculated Risk has his favorite quote from the WSJ sourced article, this is my favorite:

Mr. Genest estimated that, eventually, 40% of the state's budget would go to the state Medicaid program, 40% to education, 10% to debt service and 6% to retiree medical services and pension—leaving little left for anything else, such as the state's corrections system.

• Its nice we prioritize our socialist safety net. Nice. Very nice.
• Me thinks the public - given their mood during a collapse - may think that the retiree medical and pensions might also have to be looked at.
• And, a state that spends 40% of its revenues on an education system with an annual ranking of 49th in the nation might want to take a peek at that line item.

A precurser to Federal Failure:embarrest:

Kalefornea, just try to squeeze a GenXer.

Already adjusted to a 10% pre-pay

Squeeze Me, Just Try...

 

[dannyboy]

That's the danger when using an IFT to bail out of F/C/S/I. I like to use the limited IFTs we have for forward trades into the equities funds. You can always bail out to the G fund - as many times as you want.

Then again, sometime one has to do what one has to do...

****************************************************
Interesting Bog,
Can you epand a little on this train of thought?
DB :suspicious:

 

[Boghie]

****************************************************
Interesting Bog,
Can you epand a little on this train of thought?
DB :suspicious:

Suspicious??? :suspicious:

Anyway, here are my thoughts on using IFTs:

You only have two of those IFTs.
After those, only '<1%' trades can move to F/C/S/I.
You have an infinite number of trades to safety ('G Fund')

If you consume an IFT to move assets to the 'G Fund' at the beginning of the month you have just restricted your ability to move into the equities funds if the market seems favorable. If that bail out move to G was your last IFT you can no longer move meaningfully into the equities funds for the remainder of the month.

You will be watching the market from the sidelines.

So, in general, why use an IFT to move money into G?
Actually, why consume an IFT to move money into the F?
And, why do a reletively minor bond fund rebalance with an IFT?
Those IFTs are more important to you than the payroll contributions.

However, in October 2008 and March 2009 it was wise to use anything you could to bail out of equities. Maybe Amoeba saw something.

 

[nasa1974]

Suspicious??? :suspicious:

Anyway, here are my thoughts on using IFTs:

You only have two of those IFTs.
After those, only '<1%' trades can move to F/C/S/I.
You have an infinite number of trades to safety ('G Fund') QUOTE]

You have to remember that in order to take advantage of the <1% option You have to have a minimum of 1% in that fund. Example: G-94%, F-1%, C-1%, S-1% and I-1%. I typically like to keep a minimum of 5% in the funds that I want to stay in the game with. If you have gone 100% into the G fund then you are out of the game until the beginning of the next month.

 

[amoeba]

hi altitude day-trading

back above the G-fund, so time to test the waters:

And going against the grain - - - I'll put a third in the pot hoping for some volatility to the upside tomorrow; today's homesales are biased by the pre-extention rebate effect, and the consumer confidence to the plus side (although <50), points to some sort of move tomorrow - especially if the claims figure is below 500,000.

That's wishful thinking, I don't believe it, but what the heck? If everyone else thinks times are rosy - then I'll profit by joining in.

At least for the moment. I wouldn't want to be invested when the government stops stimulating and begins raising interest rates.

 

[amoeba]

Stop the presses:

I think I may have just topped 3% for the year by COB today!!!! Quite a gap for me to move up into the top 150, however.

Friday should see some follow - through. I expect disappointment in the durable goods number and retail traffic next week and may go back in soon if oversold.

 

[amoeba]

Stop the presses:

I think I may have just topped 3% for the year by COB today!!!! Quite a gap for me to move up into the top 150, however.

Friday should see some follow - through. I expect disappointment in the durable goods number and retail traffic next week and may go back in soon if oversold.

Well - that rally didn't last - and neither will my lofty status above 3%; thanks to Dubai's untimely request to "suspend" paying back their loans. I was averaging out hoping for a second up day. Now I'm looking at a net loss for last week - depending on share prices.

Next couple of weeks could see some significant movement.

 

[grandma]

Stop the presses:

I think I may have just topped 3% for the year by COB today!!!!

Hey - I'm sorry I'm late with your `congratulations!' - I was waiting to see what the numbers were that evening, & then forgot...:embarrest:

Well - that rally didn't last - and neither will my lofty status above 3%;
..Next couple of weeks could see some significant movement. .

Hopefully you haven't dropped below where you were before & won't have any delay in climbing back up.......

 

[amoeba]

relatively tight trading range today for all our fund indices:

My crystal ball says that when all the clunker and home-buying stimuli are over (now they say, next May), this market founders. No top line growth. Continued unemployment rising to 12%. And, before then, retail sales this week will disappoint.

There should be some short-term opportunities for technical trades; assuming the 50 dma holds like it has been the past few cycles. Eventually, I see the 200 dma being challenged, or the economy curing itself - but not both.

 

[amoeba]

Another bad IFT for me: holding F and bailing on ICS, right before a jump up.

My next prediction, FWIW, is that chain store sales disappoint - although expectations are not that high.

Unfortunately, the countervailing effect of low interest rates and stimuli funding are killing the dollar.

I still plan to wait until there is more data on pre-holiday sales, and employment, then reinvest as appropriate for the rest of the month (not before next monday).

 

[Scout333]

Another bad IFT for me: holding F and bailing on ICS, right before a jump up.

My next prediction, FWIW, is that chain store sales disappoint - although expectations are not that high.

Unfortunately, the countervailing effect of low interest rates and stimuli funding are killing the dollar.

I still plan to wait until there is more data on pre-holiday sales, and employment, then reinvest as appropriate for the rest of the month (not before next monday).

Amoeba, I agree re retail sales! The increases in credit card interest rates, fees, etc. are discouraging people from their normal free-spending ways. If they don't have the cash and its not a reaaally good deal people just aren't buying even if it is Christmas time. I was in Sears yesterday and I saw several male shoppers ask for prices and just walk away if they weren't happy with the sale price. Guys are usually buyers. We go, we find, we buy! Not usually too particular about price if its what we want. The times they are a changing!

 

[amoeba]

If I may continue:

My hold on F turned a sour apple rotten, as the fund fell today (12/1). My clouded crystal ball tells me to double or even triple down on F. Last month's gain leader, love-to-bike, I believe just did.

I may be using that IFT sooner than I thought.

This is not a recommendation. This year, I haven't been able to throw a financial beachball into an ocean of opportunity; and I was #8 (part year return) last year.

Damn it all!!!

 

[amoeba]

I-fund continues to go nutz:

In the face of unabated unemployment increases here and elsewhere (e.g., spain).

Holiday sales and employment numbers I expect to disappoint, but will that be enough to counteract the flight from a failing dollar?

I wouldn't be surprised at another 5% move the rest of this week; as for the direction, your guess is as good as mine.

edit - no - your guess would probably be better than mine.

 

[amoeba]

Well, some initial retail figures are trickling in, and they are lame:

The market reaction, while significant, was contained - and perhaps tempered by Bernanke's reconfirmation comments today about not seeing a big equity move down in the future (as if anyone sees anything in the future); and maintain low interest rates - - - - for how long? All I remember is him saying that interest rates would have to move up at some point if the spending/GDP keeps increasing. He called the 3-4% increase in spending relative to GDP unsustainable. So low interest rates are equally unsustainable. But he's not changing them. So the dollar is worth a half dollar.

And so on. And on. And on.

 

[amoeba]

So, unemployment number due out tomorrow:

My guess it will surprise (due to stimulus effects), and the market sells off on the good news. Makes no sense, just like alot of things that have occurred recently. But that's why I think it may happen.

 

[amoeba]

So, unemployment number due out tomorrow:

My guess it will surprise (due to stimulus effects), and the market sells off on the good news. Makes no sense, just like alot of things that have occurred recently. But that's why I think it may happen.

OK - the jobs number did surprise; but only modest sell-off - so far - bonds recovering after some serious tankage early last week. The IFT of the day is mixed all over the place. F-fund should be a bargain - but few takers. I'm going to keep eyes open for getting in on the next dip - there's still uncertainty on the job's and sales fronts.

I've dropped to my lowest rank this year; and again below the G-fund. Hard to do much worse.

 

[amoeba]

OK - the jobs number did surprise; but only modest sell-off - so far - bonds recovering after some serious tankage early last week. The IFT of the day is mixed all over the place. F-fund should be a bargain - but few takers. I'm going to keep eyes open for getting in on the next dip - there's still uncertainty on the job's and sales fronts.

I've dropped to my lowest rank this year; and again below the G-fund. Hard to do much worse.

Much recent sideways movement in equities; retail number was major surprise, but last month was revised down, and I don't think sales improvements will last past december; this in the face of rising initial claims; I am still thinking bonds will rise above these inflated equity fund prices; all of this may be affected by dollar fluctuations, and an earlier-than-expected interest rate move.

Well, after briefly just topping G-fund, I expect to drop down again today. Very nervous about current bullishness (and I'm not even in stocks).

 

[Birchtree]

I noticed.

 

[amoeba]

well golly gee - back above the G-fund. Yippie. and rank 163.

 

[amoeba]

Boy: If anybody is reading my account talk thread, be warned. I can turn a TSP fund into a lump of coal just by putting money into it.

Look at the F fund, what was it ? At least a year since it dropped >1% in a month, and what, and then, that drop was much less than the equity funds, so it's safe, right?

Wrong. The week I put 1/3 of my tsp, it dropped like a lead baloon. I decided - - - no way am I going to flip flop.....I will not lock in a loss.....

So there it sits......

I have half a mind to put some into your beloved S-fund; just to put the boogie on it.

Bah Humbug!