alevin's account talk

[alevin]

Update from the past week, here's the indexindicator chart for smallcap index. When I first found the site, only able to chart back 3 years, they've upgraded to now do 5-year lookbacks. I did get whipsawed on my recent entry point, and doesn't look like will get oversold anytime soon, which would be my normal exit point.



Do I stay or do I add, or do I go, those are the questions. I thought I might add a little if got whipsawed, which I have (gotten whipsawed that is). However, about to hit my pain threshold (-1%), and things have potential to get much worse. Based on that, I'm going to bail and try again later when things slow down, but when I try again, it will be with C, not S. AGG charts aren't convincing me to play there with any conviction either, but given the higher performers in tracker at the moment, I think I'll trade my S into F, see if can recapture something. Meanwhile 90% stays safe in G at this point. I'll still have 1 IFT left for the month, which I may or may not use, we'll see.

Here is the other chart I promised, with Denninger's longer term bear signal from back in 07-09. A small whipsaw in progress, but I think it wants to be serious and quit playing around in very near future. Weekly EMA 13x34 cross, difference > 1%.

 

[alevin]

Catch-22s abound in my life right now, ironies upon ironies. If I were PO, I could make this story really entertaining, but alas I'm not PO.

Got to fix my existing vehicle to get it reliable enough to travel out of town to the bigger carmarts in my area between now and end of the month, to buy that newer used, more reliable vehicle than that one that went in the shop today and actually had work done on it, with more work to do tomorrow yet. The car shopping is big deal, haven't done that since bought this vehicle used, 15 years ago. Been saving a couple years to buy most of the new used vehicle without borrowing or selling the current vehicle.

Ensuring reliable vehicle is essential so I can report for jury duty in County Circuit Court, through the month of February as needed, potentially at far side of the county every day. Mechanic swears vehicle working well at this point after I asked them to do tuneup (due) along with try to diagnose anything else that might be causing misbehaviors, but when I asked for a post-tuneup test drive this afternoon-make sure it is really behaving now (until it doesn't-we shall see if that really solved the intermittent problem been having), mechanic discovered my thermostat has given out, almost at the same time. not a good thing in cold weather when you want to be able to turn the heat and defrost on. Thermostat on order this pm, back in the shop tomorrow. So glad I have a couple weeks yet before February starts to get the reliable vehicle issue resolved.

So here comes the next irony(ies). Letter in the mail when I got home today, letter from local TRIBAL court, announcing I have TRIBAL jury duty starting February-for the next SIX months! might there be a conflict between 2 totally different local government courts that both want me for month of February? I think yes.

And of course, I'm supposed to travel for work with a small group of colleagues first week of February to meet with representatives from another more distant tribe to discuss their concerns with a mega land management planning effort they have a treaty-rights interest in, which the local tribe also has an interest in, but the tribal court of course, is much more interested in my being available to satisfy current local court needs for month of February, the other tribe's needs do not have the legal right to demand my presence to answer natural resource technical questions, as opposed to that that which the local tribe has to require my presence as a juror in local court (the summons for tribal court says they'll send LEO to ensure I show up if I don't show up voluntarily to do my duty). County Court summons isn't quite as blunt on the subject. wheeeee!

So the more distant tribe gets blown off in favor of local tribe stronger legal demands on my time as local tribal land inhabitant, but the question remains, which local court is going to give in to the other local court's demands on my time and availability for the month of February, which approacheth rapidly? I must make phone calls tomorrow, beg for mercy from one or the other or both. Stay tuned, I may have LEO from one court hauling me off to jail for contempt by not showing up in their court due to other court insisting they have priority demand on my time,and neither side budging on their demands. talk about catch-22. I'm sure it will all work out-somehow, :blink:

 

[burrocrat]

that is an easy problem to solve:

on the first day of county circuit court when interviewed during the juror intake process you tell them that all white people are guilty, that they have been stealing opportunity and oppressing the other races since the founding of our country and that all white people should hang! try to yell this loudly with drool and spittle and maybe shake your fist in the air. they will quickly dismiss you from the jury pool.

the next day go to the tribal court and when interviewed tell them that all indians are guilty, that they have been ignoring the just and democratic laws of this nation since the day it was formed and are responsible for the murder of countless whites and theft of welfare benefits which is why our country is broke, all indians should hang! repeat yelling, drooling, shaking fist performance but maybe a bit more expressive. they will also quickly dismiss you from the jury pool.

what you tell the other tribe about natural resources is up to you, but probably not either of those things if you want to keep your job. on the other hand, being sent to a fed sponsored sensitivity retraining specialist for the next 18 months while on medical admin leave to fix your prejudices might just be the hot ticket to ride out your career until reaching ideal retirement age.

i have not been called for jury duty in over 12 years in multiple jurisdictions and states, i think i made somebody's permanent 'do not call' list. there is more than one way to skin a judicial cat.

 

[alevin]

at: burro, great idea! :nuts: It works until the day they both want me in court the same darn day, at that point ideal retirement date may not be spent enduring employer-sponsored sensitivity retraining, might end up rolling my own on that one in another far less desirable venue entirely if I go that route. nope, got to head this one off at both passes. somehow. stay tuned. Rule #1-Don't panic! :smile:

 

[alevin]

Fascinating past week, glad it's in the rearview mirror. Resolved the jury double-jeopardy problems, took a couple days. Circuit court says nope, no ducking February, already ducked back in December, no double ducks. So then I went to the other jury's coordinator, told him the situation, he graciously allowed me to drop out of being on call for February, maintaining on-call status for March through June. whew, feel like I dodged a big bullet there.

Meanwhile-vehicle. In the shop last Monday-tuneup-seems to have solved the stammering, stuttering, dying problem, but told the mechanic sometimes it would go for days up to a week before starting that behavior all over again after it rested up, so still going to play wait and see for a week or so. DBAnnie made me think about tuneup being due, when she suggested having spark plugs looked at. :smile:

Meanwhile, late Monday, mechanic discovered thermostat malfunctioning-I'd noticed vehicle not warming up very fast the past few weeks, but weather has been such, hadn't had any real problems with defrost or fogging up, was far more focused on the stammer,stutter,stop issues. driving distances around here short enough, the slow heater function hadn't really bothered me. I'd looked at the gauge, it would be low but had still been functioning, slowly coming up. Until it stayed down and didn't come up Monday eve, when I took vehicle back overnight. Anyway, back in shop on Tuesday-replaced thermostat.

Skip to Friday-almost almost almost made it to work without mishap, radiator blew its' stack slightly over half a mile from the office, just as coming off the exit ramp from interstate, limped it to office parking lot, steaming the whole way. :suspicious:;swearCalled mechanic, they finally came and got it midafternoon. blown radiator, replacement comes Monday or Tuesday, vehicle at the shop til fixed, gracious helpful friend/coworker loaned spare vehicle til get back up and running with mine. what would we do without friends?

 

[FogSailing]

Well, with all the car trouble this week Alevin, I know I'd be glad that you weren't on my jury if I was on trial

FS

 

[alevin]

Well, with all the car trouble this week Alevin, I know I'd be glad that you weren't on my jury if I was on trial

FS

:laugh: That's assuming I made it to the trial in the first place! Assuming nothing else goes wrong this coming week, I'll have a halfway reliable vehicle to drive to the far side of the county if I must the week after. But assuming nothing else goes wrong this coming week, I'll be carhunting out of town on the weekend. My goal was to buy that next vehicle sometime this month, before having to deal with out of town jury duty possibilities next month. Until suitable younger gently-used replacement vehicle has been bought, I'll be driving the current somewhat less-reliable one. Looks like my one and only New Year's resolution may fall by the wayside, if don't get the replacement vehicle bought by next weekend, I don't like feeling rushed into big decisions.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

:laugh: That's assuming I made it to the trial in the first place! Assuming nothing else goes wrong this coming week, I'll have a halfway reliable vehicle to drive to the far side of the county if I must the week after. But assuming nothing else goes wrong this coming week, I'll be carhunting out of town on the weekend. My goal was to buy that next vehicle sometime this month, before having to deal with out of town jury duty possibilities next month. Until suitable younger gently-used replacement vehicle has been bought, I'll be driving the current somewhat less-reliable one. Looks like my one and only New Year's resolution may fall by the wayside, if don't get the replacement vehicle bought by next weekend, I don't like feeling rushed into big decisions.

i feel ya...i dont like being rushed either... Not on big decisions. Took me two months to get mine a few months back. Hope the right deal falls in your lap! Best wishes!!

 

[alevin]

shorter-term indexindicator.com chart says we just bumped up from -4 stddev to -3 stddev. longer-term indexindicator.com chart says we're still down at -3 stddev-slower response. Can't think of a better low-risk entry point in a bear mkt for a short trade. need to get back above the 0 mark, so here goes. Using my 2d IFT for the month. C 40 G60.

S&P 500 vs S&P 500 Relative to its 5-Day Moving Average (S&P 500 R5) | Stock Market Indicators

S&P 500 vs S&P 500 Relative to its 10-Day Moving Average (S&P 500 R10) | Stock Market Indicators

 

[alevin]

Bok bok bok, time for this chicken to get out of the road. :worried:

this is the near-term chart.

The longer-term slower moving chart looks a little different.

S&P 500 vs S&P 500 Relative to its 10-Day Moving Average (S&P 500 R10) | Stock Market Indicators

-normally I'd hold til longerterm MA suite at least got back up to the mean, but taking the 2 charts together, I think prudence is better part of valor right now.

 

[alevin]

If I was in, I'd be getting out, but since I missed that last drop, I'm not in for the pop either. that's ok, this market isn't done making hamburger out of people yet this year. I'd rather not feel like mincemeat when the year is done. not planning on ending up that way.

edit: additional information. Up til now, I've had to wait to post daily chart until the morning after when the update became available. Just in the past few days, the indexindicators.com site has started running half-hourly updates, with 30-minute lag. So now I can post today's chart at end of the day instead of in the am before work. for a little while. The site says the half-hourly update charts will only be free for a little while. they're still working on developing market for the site, it's a work in progress, getting better all the time.

I just hope they keep the daily charts available as free for morning after hangovers, after the 30-minute charts go under the paid shade.

S&P 500 vs S&P 500 Relative to its 5-Day Moving Average (S&P 500 R5) | Stock Market Indicators

 

[alevin]

Couldn't decide where to post this-black humor, screwy news, music videos or what. decided to go none of the above. :smile:

We're thinking of sending our daughter to work for the Feds. (She's three.)
Yesterday she was sitting on the grass with her friends, eating pretzels.
"Why don't you share some of your pretzels?" we asked her.
So, she looks up at us baffled, then leans over to one of her friends, takes some raisins from her friend's lunch, and gives them to her other friend, then keeps on eating her own pretzels.

Depression, Debasement, & 100 Years Of Monetary Mismanagement | Zero Hedge


To summarize:

 

[alevin]

I haven't been posting in my thread lately, not much at all for that matter. many reasons. work....work....lack of sleep....lack of sleep....travel....travel....waiting on chosen charts to tell me when I can put some funds back to work....getting there, not there yet. long wait this time.

Meanwhile, family..aged.mother gone through day surgery a few weeks ago for damaged disk that's been killing her with pain and difficulty walking for a couple years. took til this year for docs to finally order up an MRI to find out why her hip has been so painful all this time, after months of physical therapy made no difference. dam the insurance companies, they try to avoid allowing MRIs, they don't want to know that back surgery, even day surgery, might actually be the solution. meanwhile how much $ went down the hole on pt that was not much use in the end?

and meanwhile, my poor dear brother was savagely attacked by a stranger the other evening, with an iron bar, when he went to check out a dumpster behind a minimart looking for boxes he and his wife could use for moving one more time by end of the month-long story there. emotionally, physically, financially exhausted from insufficient work hours on-call at an otherwise familywage job, I'm sure his guard was down when he was walking towards the dumpster. His assailant-of another skin color, leapt at him from somewhere not noticed and began beating him on head and face and neck with the bar.

He's alive today and not dead, because my beautiful sister in law, tall and strong looking, despite frail health and multiple previous heart attacks, leaped out of their car and attacked the assailant with her bare hands trying to save her husband. The attacker finally ran away thanks to her instinct to protect her loved one no matter what the cost. I love her for loving him that much. they both could have died right then and there.

was the guy defending his food source, saw an easy mark to rob? brother is living in virtual poverty due to residual effects of an ugly divorce a few years ago, but not unemployed, not enough of his kind of family-wage skills needed in the area in terms of job opportunities, they're too broke to relocate beyond the local area at this point. the attacker would have gotten nothing except maybe a lowcost watch or phone. maybe.

I am thankful for his life, for our family's sake. I hate the economy they are enduring and see no end in sight for them, not until after the election and maybe not for too many years to come yet.

 

[nnuut]

Hang in there Alevin, sounds like things can't get much worse. It seems like when bad things happens they happen in THREES you are past that. Things should get better, I'm crossing my fingers.

 

[grandma]

Alevin, I am so sorry to hear your family has been under the gun with such awful goings on. Hopefully, your mom's surgery has eliminated the pain & she can get her mobility back. And I pray your brother & his wife have been medically checked out, & that somebody there can reach out with a helping hand up. Prayers...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Sorry to hear about your hardships Alevin. Praying that many blessings flow your way soon.

 

[alevin]

Mom is doing much much better, thankfully, tho the stress on her and my dad about brothers situation is absolutely draining on both of them emotionally. And yes, brother and wife went to the hospital, filed police report, no clues for the police to go on to find the guy. brother has complained about dizziness a couple times since then, I worry about concussion. He told his employer what happened, employer was good enough to not demand he be at work for a few days, but that also means no income, give what limited work that has been at the business for months now at that.

Meanwhile I had just enough emotional and physical energy tonight once things cooled off enough to go out and do some of my own stress relief pulling weeds out of back flower beds for a couple hours-filled 2 big garbage bags-tall annual grasses that come through the chainlink fence from neighbor's untended back lot. I feel a little better now. long hard intense week at work, I needed to do something physical tonight before the torrential t-storm gets going tomorrow that's supposed to last all weekend:15:.

thanks for the good thoughts, all. Prayers are appreciated as well.

 

[userque]

Praying for better days ahead for your family.

 

[alevin]

thanks, Q

 

[FogSailing]

I'm so sorry to hear this Alevin. I hope that your brother and mom heal quickly. You are in my prayers. I also hope things slow down a bit for you and you can get your batteries recharged. I hope you can find some "me" time. Wishing you all the best!

FS