alevin's account talk

[FireWeatherMet]

Yeah, 30-Mile was bad. Especially heartbreaking reading one of the deceased female firefighters dad talk about a better-made shelter that exists and could be distributed to fire fighters to give them a better chance.

Good luck on your training assignment. I worked with your counterparts often both as in Incident Meteorologist (IMET) trainee almost 2 decades ago, as well as when I'm training a new IMET trainee. A training officer position you're gunning for has their hands full, Gotta know a little about everybody's job training qualifications, and there are plenty of different positions out there. Being on a fatality fire (been there) is also bad, as morale in camp just goes downhill.

Stay safe...and good luck.

FWM

 

[konakathy]

Hang in there....can't imagine the stress and anxiety the firefighters, their families and other personnel are under. Prayers and a heartfelt thanks to all involved. Tough job.

 

[alevin]

Being on a fatality fire (been there) is bad, as morale in camp just goes downhill.

Stay safe...and good luck.

FWM

Thanks FWM. Will do my best, was working my day job the week 30-mile happened. Events there hit very close to home, even with respect to my day job responsibilities. As far as knowing everything about everything that everyone does, thank goodness for downloadable manuals from the intranet. I know a lot about a lot of the jobs, but far from everything. And a couple kids died in South Canyon from small town where I had recently moved from. South Canyon impacted me deeply, very deeply, especially finding myself helping the IMET (the same exact guy who was on South Canyon), 2 weeks later, with similar expected midafternoon blowup, ready to react split-second style to get the word to the IMET and people out on the line, the instant conditions changed for the worse. thankful it didn't fully develop that way that day though it had been expected.

 

[Scout333]

Stay safe my friend!

 

[alevin]

I'm back from fire assignment, top priority fire in the country there for several days while I was there, they're getting a handle on it, but not out of the woods yet.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch...Day off today, racked up quite a bit of overtime past couple weeks.

Pertinent part starts @ .24sec in. Start there, skip the intro, ignore the background theme music if you can.

As to my own hunting efforts, well, I couldn't take advantage this past couple weeks, but more opportunities are coming and soon, I do believe. Not today, getting caught up with home life-other aspects.





Be careful out there.

 

[alevin]

So, I was away from tsp account access the critical 2 weeks in Aug, and again the past 2 weeks. Happy to have sidestepped for the duration. think I'll continue sidesteppin' a bit longer. chart still looks uuuugly.

 

[nnuut]

Looks mighty ugly to me! Welcome back, missed Ya!

 

[alevin]

Chart signals ahoy. If I was in, I'd be getting out if I hadn't gotten out already. Time will come to get back in, now is not the time. for me at any rate.



S&P 500 vs S&P 500 Relative to its 10-Day Moving Average (S&P 500 R10) | Stock Market Indicators

 

[FogSailing]

Any chance you can post that for the S and I Funds Alevin....Great chart BTW.

FS

 

[alevin]

Any chance you can post that for the S and I Funds Alevin....Great chart BTW.

FS

Wish I could figure out the algorithm for doing the ma smoothing function that the indexindicators site does that creates these types of charts. then I could run it myself for etfs that parallel the S fund and I fund. I'll post the S&P midcap and S&P small cap charts separately, that's as close as I can get to charting for the S fund-interpolation required by the viewer. The site can create charts for individual country indices, but not for an overall developed markets index. Wish they would add one of those. If you think that Japan or Germany are indicative for the I fund, I can post charts to the Dax and Japans index.....Here's the Midcap



Here's the sp smallcap

 

[alevin]

Dax looks pretty much like the Sp mid and smallcaps at the moment. DAX vs DAX Relative to its 5-Day Moving Average (DAX R5) | Stock Market Indicators



Ditto Japan. Nikkei 225 vs Nikkei Relative to its 10-Day Moving Average (Nikkei R10) | Stock Market Indicators

 

[alevin]

Think I'll wait til things drop to 2d deviation, me. I suspect there will be a better entry point not too long from now.

 

[alevin]

For the stocking stuffers. I must be one of the indicators, since I've played around low-key with a few stocks in a couple small Roth IRA accounts the past few years. I will be closing the Scottrade account and moving those funds to a different brokerage shortly however, since Scottrade got hacked recently.

The End is Near, Part 6: Individual Investors Rediscover Individual Stocks

 

[alevin]

It's a tricky month, fast moving. I was away from computer out of town during the August decline, and unable to make time for IFTs the days of the last couple down blips since then. May still be another downblip to catch this month, will see what the morning shows. not sure we have a new blip yet even as of today (the charts won't show today's impacts until the morning sun comes up tomorrow).

 

[alevin]

Downblip for new entry has not showed up yet. Still thinking it might, hope I catch the right side of the wave if it comes.

It could very well show up next week, given other scheduled events next week.

Is This What Happens On Monday? | Zero Hedge.

 

[alevin]

Well, we didn't get the indicator downdip in SP500 I was hoping to see. Not oversold yet even though we got a downslide this week, mostly volatility. however the downdip has arrived in the US index indicators I've begun using. Downdip showed up for everything but SP500, sp100, the DOW and the Naz.

Midcaps, smallcaps, Naz100, NYSE, have all taken the indicator dive at this point. Heads up, I'll be going in accordingly, but due to trying to follow Buffet Rule #1 (don't lose money), I will not go in whole hog. Going to take it a step at a time, a portion will go into S first. I'll wait for the SPX to give in and drop the indicator before I push second chunk into C. initial amount yet to be determined by early morning tomorrow for S. I don't plan on being 100% in even when I get done with the second move. If the S-related indicators drop even harder, I may push a few more chips into S for the month instead. patience, Santa's being unpredictable this month, not trying to outguess him.

S&P 600 SmallCap vs S&P 400 Relative to its 10-Day Moving Average (S&P 400 R10) | Stock Market Indicators

S&P 400 MidCap vs S&P 400 Relative to its 5-Day Moving Average (S&P 400 R5) | Stock Market Indicators

S&P 500 vs S&P 500 Relative to its 5-Day Moving Average (S&P 500 R5) | Stock Market Indicators

 

[burrocrat]

you have only 10 total trades this year, never in more than 35% long exposed. nailing down 5% gains. brilliant.

 

[alevin]

considering how well I've done for past several years prior-not, I'll take it. Been following personal motto, if first indicator system I try doesn't work for me, personality, timing 2x trades/month, etc, keep trying til I find one that works for me. Finally found this one this year, and will keep it. It works for me, not perfect but that is mostly due to operator-issues so far. I'm not trying to hit it out of the park, just want some consistent cumulative base hits that add up to more runs than outs.

 

[alevin]

The window to move in was short and sweet. I dipped toe in the water in S, decided to hold off on going "C" at that point, it hadn't dropped yet and I had a couple busy ams away from puter at point C finally dropped. Holding now until indicator pops its top. base hit, I'll take it. Merry Christmas to all.
S&P 500 vs S&P 500 Relative to its 5-Day Moving Average (S&P 500 R5) | Stock Market Indicators

http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp600-vs-sp600-5d-rsma-params-x-x-x-10ma/

 

[alevin]

Bear, bear, bear, bear. Got 2 intermediate/longterm indicators saying bear is what we got, bear is what we'll get. The index indicator chart is on a -2 StdDev at this point, will post the endofday chart over the weekend, I suspect it may go down to -3sd before the drop is complete, considering indicator went down that far in August, and we ain't there yet. Got another couple longer term bear mkt indicators to go along with it, I'll post one of those on the weekend when I have time to create and post the chart, it dates back to the 2007-09 bear era, hasn't come around since then til now. Karl Denninger put me onto that one back then, but I didn't know enough back then to trust it when that indicator turned itself around. Now I would-and will, whenever it does. meanwhile, here's another indicator system I watch.

https://tradetrekker.wordpress.com/

DeMark system. He's better at it than I am, thankful he posts, I continue to learn. Example, he's been saying for several days that a bearish priceflip is a true bearish signal, but a bullish price flip is a neutral signal. never read that anywhere else, never knew that about DeMark system til now. no wonder it has frustrated me trying to do DeMark indicator applications on my own. Take a look at the intermediate/longterm indicator outlook (have to scroll down the page aways to see it).