uscfanhawaii's account talk

[MaStA]

OK, OK....how about if the market skyrockets Friday so those that are in can exit with cash in hand....and then Monday it plummets so those going short can exit with cash in hand?!? Then everyone is happy!!

Seriously, tho, we all know that on any given day half the AT is going in and half is exiting. And that's OK...cause you always have to be right TWICE in this business to make $$. Just depends on which side of the equation you are on. or :blink:

Well my predictions and hopes don't change the outcome of the market. Unfortunately it looks like today may not be such a good day. I don't hope harm/losses on anyone, but I just felt the market would be heading down so I bought some TZA a couple days ago. Good luck guys.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Well my predictions and hopes don't change the outcome of the market. Unfortunately it looks like today may not be such a good day. I don't hope harm/losses on anyone, but I just felt the market would be heading down so I bought some TZA a couple days ago. Good luck guys.

Well...what can I say?! Good call, MaStA!

I cancelled my IFT for today and will ride this out. :suspicious:

 

[nasa1974]

Well my predictions and hopes don't change the outcome of the market. Unfortunately it looks like today may not be such a good day. I don't hope harm/losses on anyone, but I just felt the market would be heading down so I bought some TZA a couple days ago. Good luck guys.

We are going to have up days and down days and those of us in the market know that. Those that are able to take advantage of the down days is fantastic. It was the word "plummets" that brings up a whole different visual.

 

[MaStA]

We are going to have up days and down days and those of us in the market know that. Those that are able to take advantage of the down days is fantastic. It was the word "plummets" that brings up a whole different visual.

I wasn't really looking for it to plummet as in a -500 day or something since I do have some long positions in my Roth IRA that I try not to touch much. I was looking for something like today to make a quick buck on my TZA shares. I sold them near the close today so now the market can boom again.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

I am IFT'ing OUT to 50G/50F COB Monday.

Thanks for all the encouragement, especially from ChessGuy, BQAT, and NSurf9, to name a few.... but as I said in my IFT comment, "The GREAT and POWERFUL Wizard of OZ has spoken!!"...... Time to GET OUT!!!

I will, of course, check on the market as of noon tomorrow to make sure the UPTURN of the futures holds, but if it does, I will be outa-here! (now if I can only stay OFF Ocean's bottom 10, I can be happy....with symphathy and encouragement to CZAPOR!!) :nuts:

 

[uscfanhawaii]

HEY, I just noticed that I went over 200 posts!! And (coincidentally?!?) I became a 'TSP TALKER'!!!

Thanks Tom! For all you do!! Really enjoy this site! Great to learn from the MASTERS and be able to share some of my limited knowledge with others!!

 

[crommie]

HEY, I just noticed that I went over 200 posts!! And (coincidentally?!?) I became a 'TSP TALKER'!!!

Thanks Tom! For all you do!! Really enjoy this site! Great to learn from the MASTERS and be able to share some of my limited knowledge with others!!

Welcome to the Talker's Club! Also, it's great to continuously read your positive attitude and your morale support for others that have ended up on the wrong side of trades lately. Keep the faith and keep the posts flowing!

 

[uscfanhawaii]

I am IFT'ing OUT to 50G/50F COB Monday.

"The GREAT and POWERFUL Wizard of OZ has spoken!!"...... Time to GET OUT!!!

I will, of course, check on the market as of noon tomorrow to make sure the UPTURN of the futures holds, but if it does, I will be outa-here! :nuts:

So the futures did NOT hold....eating crow here....cancelled IFT and am still riding it out, looking for a exit. I guess I did not heed the Wiz's words fast enough!!!

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Today is the DAY. ALL OUT! Me and nearly everyone else on the IFT of the Day are exiting. Top 50 mostly still out. Getting near the top of the Bollinger Band. July seasonality turning sour. And NEW MOON!!! :nuts:

Good Luck All!!!

 

[uscfanhawaii]

So I made a good move getting out on Thurs. Gotta be the only good move I've made this year....
Interesting article in Money....especially since he states what I had noticed previously....namely, you have to be right TWICE in this game. Or Three times. And you have to do it over and over to be successful. For instance, if I had just stayed in C and S all year I would be around +6% instead of the -6% that I am. Yes, this is a support statement for Buy and Hold, and probably only BT fits that description in our membership! But if nothing else, it can be a self-check on what we are trying to accomplish here! (with apologies to Tom and his motto!!!)

Why timing the market is a foolish investing strategy - Jul. 20, 2012

Good Luck!! And be careful out there!! :nuts:

 

[burrocrat]

Who you calling fool, fool? I recently made two great investing decisions (that's four moves total) and i plan to keep it up, quit peein in my wheaties.

Basically you have to play risk on anymore, cash will get you nothing. Some statisticians will be along shortly to point out that buying and holding the market for the last ten years got you nothing too. The system is set up to encourage you to play the game, just ask mr. burnanke, it's easier for the sharks to harvest your gain that way.

So you got to do the ole in and out thing, timing they say, and there's a ton of systems out there to help you with that. I think they're all approaching it wrong. Me, i'm not trying to be the system, i'm going to beat the system. Like a redheaded stepchild. Twice. Over and over again. Fish gotta swim.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

ALL IN today COB. S&P hit the 1340 area, and I had hoped that AAPL would juice the market overnite....but no!

"Apple reported sales Tuesday that rose nearly 24% from a year ago and a profit that soared 21%. In case you were wondering, that's what a bad quarter for Apple looks like." That's how this article starts out! Big iPad sales not enough to lift Apple past forecasts - Jul. 24, 2012 on CNNmoney. INCREDIBLE!! :toung:

So I will probably regret getting in 'so soon'. Me, and the other 19 of 23 IFTs on the AT that went IN today!!

Good Luck out there!!

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Basically you have to play risk on anymore, cash will get you nothing....So you got to do the ole in and out thing, timing they say, and there's a ton of systems out there to help you with that. I think they're all approaching it wrong. Me, i'm not trying to be the system, i'm going to beat the system. Like a redheaded stepchild. Twice. Over and over again. Fish gotta swim.

I like your conviction, BC! I am hoping my second move today will end up in my favor.....only time will tell! :blink:

 

[sniper]

you from hawaii? just saw that in the name and figured I'd say howzit haha.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

you from hawaii? just saw that in the name and figured I'd say howzit haha.

Yes. I work at the Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard. (see also my picture in Mug Shots!)

 

[burrocrat]

I like your conviction, BC!

Hey now, i've never been convicted. Or even charged. Probably had something to do with the shoes, they were fast. Or the talkin, that was fast too. I figure i got what i deserved so just called it even.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

So.... the Market took a prompt jump up at 1:30 EDT Friday. S&P closed around 1385! Maybe Malyla (and the bulk of the rest of the IFTs Friday) was right to get out then. Top of the Bollinger, top of the rising channel, and apparently news driven, with Euro bank Pres Draghi speech and hopes for a FED QE3 (that may or may not materialize).

I will seriously look at getting out on Monday....I just hope it holds up that long! :blink:

As long as staying in will not backfire on me. I stayed in because relative strength is at 57, Stoichs and MACD are all on the upswing....so it looks like it may still have some room to run. But that room may be only for Friday, who knows. I thought UPTRENDs scores were positive too, but he stayed out.

When Malyla went out, she said it was because she had a nice run up and did not want to get greedy cause 'pigs get slaughtered'. I trust I am not being too greedy! I must say, though.....it certainly feels good to be OFF of Ocean's Bottom 50!!! FINALLY!!!!

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Following thru on my Saturday post.....I have set up to move HALF of my TSP to G on Monday. Nothing much has changed this weekend. About half of the Monday IFTs are IN and half are OUT. Futures look to be only slightly down, so that could go either way. Nikei and Hang Seng are up about a half %. Again, could go either way for S&P....

Seven Sentinels went to a BUY, and a lot more of the top 50 are staying in equities.

Bottom line seems to be that the market could go either way....so I am taking that hint and going Half Out, COB Monday. (subject to late review at Noon EDT!!!)

GOOD LUCK!!!!

 

[uscfanhawaii]

I haven't posted much cause I haven't made any moves since leaving equities on 8-3. Still waiting for that big correction that may or may not come this Sept/Oct. I do notice that most of those who did well last year and are again near the top this year, are also on the sidelines now, so that gives me some hope. :blink:

Bottom line for me this year so far is that I would have done MUCH better had I stuck to my 33/33/33 rule on equity buy and hold. :worried:

Good Luck out there....and happy trading!

 

[ChessGuy]

uscfanHI, ALOHA! I didn't use up a trade in TSP Tracker for the month of September, so I decided to go all in 100-I. I didn't bother to wait for a larger dip than today's dip. USC Trojans football goes up against Tom Crowley's University of Utah next Thursday, 10/4. I expect that Vegas should have USC beating U of U by at least two touchdowns. Tonight, the Hawaii Warriors play BYU (a former rival from the WAC and MWC days) in Provo, Utah. I'll bet against the Vegas line and predict that the Rainbow Warriors outshine the Cougars by a field goal. I'm glad to see that you and czapor1967 aren't at the bottom of the heap in TSP AutoTracker (mahalo to your wise trades). -- Aloha, from ChessGuy (#260 in the Tracker)