06/10/25
The stock market behaved during my mini-vacation - which is not typical. Stocks did fade into the close but the broader indices finished the day up slightly yesterday, and despite many reasons to be concerned, they continue to climb the wall of worry. The administration continues their trade negotiations with China and investors seem to be treading lightly. Yields were down helping the F-fund to a modest gain.
The market is either running out of steam, or it is going to continue to grind higher as the news, good or bad, tries to influence investors. The charts look good right now and the lines in the sand are fairly clear.
The breakout above resistance from the recent consolidation in the S&P 500 (C-fund) means the red line just below 6000 becomes the new support line to watch. There's other support below that but a strong market would likely hold in that 5980 area. Technically there is still an open gap near 5830, but a case can be made that the partial fill on the final trading day in May was a fill.
Yields moved slightly lower yesterday and this was following a big move up in the 10-year Treasury Yield on Friday after the questionably strong jobs report. I say questionable because of the negative revisions actually resulted in a net loss in jobs in last Friday's report.
Also, the Atlanta Fed reduced the second-quarter GDP Growth Estimate from 4.6% to 3.8%. Still impressive but a slight decline helped bring yields lower. For those looking for an interest rate cut from the Fed, this isn't a bad thing.
This was my final mini-vacation commentary and I'll be back in the office on Tuesday morning, Thanks for your patience, especially those who may have had to wait a little longer than usual for an email response. One of our premium services did have an IFT alert yesterday and thankfully that went out without a hitch. Maybe I'm ready for a proper vacation?
The DWCPF (S-fund) made another new multi-month high yesterday and the inverted head and shoulders is still on the brink of a potential breakout. It could fail here at resistance or it is waiting for a reason to pop. Perhaps a trade deal with China will be the excuse for this formation to do what they tend to do... breakout to the upside?
The ACWX (I-fund) was up in sync with US fund gains, but I actually expected more with the dollar down 0.26% yesterday.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rebounded from Friday's big loss as it managed to climb back above the 50-day EMA after just one close below it. The trend might suggest a move back to the bottom of the channel but maybe that 50-day average will hold instead?
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The stock market behaved during my mini-vacation - which is not typical. Stocks did fade into the close but the broader indices finished the day up slightly yesterday, and despite many reasons to be concerned, they continue to climb the wall of worry. The administration continues their trade negotiations with China and investors seem to be treading lightly. Yields were down helping the F-fund to a modest gain.
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The market is either running out of steam, or it is going to continue to grind higher as the news, good or bad, tries to influence investors. The charts look good right now and the lines in the sand are fairly clear.
The breakout above resistance from the recent consolidation in the S&P 500 (C-fund) means the red line just below 6000 becomes the new support line to watch. There's other support below that but a strong market would likely hold in that 5980 area. Technically there is still an open gap near 5830, but a case can be made that the partial fill on the final trading day in May was a fill.
Yields moved slightly lower yesterday and this was following a big move up in the 10-year Treasury Yield on Friday after the questionably strong jobs report. I say questionable because of the negative revisions actually resulted in a net loss in jobs in last Friday's report.
Also, the Atlanta Fed reduced the second-quarter GDP Growth Estimate from 4.6% to 3.8%. Still impressive but a slight decline helped bring yields lower. For those looking for an interest rate cut from the Fed, this isn't a bad thing.
This was my final mini-vacation commentary and I'll be back in the office on Tuesday morning, Thanks for your patience, especially those who may have had to wait a little longer than usual for an email response. One of our premium services did have an IFT alert yesterday and thankfully that went out without a hitch. Maybe I'm ready for a proper vacation?
The DWCPF (S-fund) made another new multi-month high yesterday and the inverted head and shoulders is still on the brink of a potential breakout. It could fail here at resistance or it is waiting for a reason to pop. Perhaps a trade deal with China will be the excuse for this formation to do what they tend to do... breakout to the upside?
The ACWX (I-fund) was up in sync with US fund gains, but I actually expected more with the dollar down 0.26% yesterday.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rebounded from Friday's big loss as it managed to climb back above the 50-day EMA after just one close below it. The trend might suggest a move back to the bottom of the channel but maybe that 50-day average will hold instead?
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
