uscfanhawaii's account talk

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uscfanhawaii said:
Woo Hoo!! It sure feels better to be at #285 on the tracker, instead of on Ocean's Bottom 50!! :D

I really got killed last year by being out of the market too much and missing a lot of the swings up, so I will plan to stay in more this year. Also, I am evaluating a twist on James' LMBF system that evaluates the funds twice a month instead of just at month's end, since we have 2 IFTs and I am thinking that the LMBF (although exceptional!!) might not be reacting to market changes fast enough. :nuts:

Congrats to Czapor for your exceptional climb back from the depths of the tracker to finish 2012 at 0.00%!!! (Truly remarkable!) And continuing your successes this year!! :cool:

200 posts now....and a ka-billion more to catch up to Nnuut!! (and all you moderators.....thanks for all you do!!) :blink:
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Just so you know, someone on this board already did the calcs for the 2 a month LMBF variant. Do a quick search to find it. I think it was a newbie on the board, but he had big ideas and did the calcs. If I remember correctly, it wasn't a better return, but once you find the data they posted, you will know.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Just so you know, someone on this board already did the calcs for the 2 a month LMBF variant. Do a quick search to find it. I think it was a newbie on the board, but he had big ideas and did the calcs. If I remember correctly, it wasn't a better return, but once you find the data they posted, you will know.
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Thanks....I WILL! :embarrest:
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Just so you know, someone on this board already did the calcs for the 2 a month LMBF variant. Do a quick search to find it. I think it was a newbie on the board, but he had big ideas and did the calcs. If I remember correctly, it wasn't a better return, but once you find the data they posted, you will know.
Click to expand...

It was posted in http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/longer-te...52-last-months-best-fund-method-strategy.html .
I<3TDs post #344 and just recently too....12-12-12! :D

Thanks, I<3TDs, for crunching thru a LOT of variations!! :blink: And it did show that the regular LMBF came out ahead or pretty even in all 4 variations. But I couldn't help but notice that the year 2011 really skewed the data. If it weren't for 2011, the variations did much better. I wonder what was special about 2011, that only the variations would tank so badly then? And calculating twice a month, but looking back a full month, his 'Mid Month' variation, did (slightly) better than LMBF overall, but if you discount 2011, it did a LOT better! Very interesting. :cool:
 
Not a problem. After that post I did a couple "LMBF seasonal" and found that moving to the F Fund from 1 May to 1 Nov and doing LMBF the rest of the year out performed LMBF since 2003 (when we have share price data) by quite a bit. I'll look up the number tomorrow if I remember.
 
ILoveTDs said:
Not a problem. After that post I did a couple "LMBF seasonal" and found that moving to the F Fund from 1 May to 1 Nov and doing LMBF the rest of the year out performed LMBF since 2003 (when we have share price data) by quite a bit. I'll look up the number tomorrow if I remember.
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Very Interesting. I will have to look into that. I thought for sure that wouldn't be the case in 2009 where the market took of in the late Spring and kept going through the year. I'll have to look at those numbers again. Thanx again for the tip.
 
Continuing to update on TSPWealth.com, I don't usually follow them specifically, but I like to keep track of where the different systems are pointing. TSPWealth.com just went 50S/50I from 100I, effective today. :cool:
 
trying something new this year....since last year did not go so well. I am emphasizing equities, and making moves mid month and end of month. I will be watching LMBF but tweaking it. We'll see how it goes (so far so good in 2013! :blink: ).

COB 15 Jan: 47C 37S 16I

Good luck out there!! :cool:
 
Not sure if this rally will continue, but back in Dec I did say that if/when the fiscal cliff was averted, I would look for a quick rise in the SPX to 1550. Now BT predicts 1500-1600 so we are on the same track! :rolleyes: And my modified LMBF is doing just fine so far!! :nuts:

I think I saw it posted on these boards before, but I really like this description of a Trillion Dollars. And of course our Deficit and Ceiling are many times that! This is remarkable!! :blink:

What does one TRILLION dollars look like?
 
Well, I gotta say, It sure feels better being at #145 on the AT instead of being on Ocean's Bottom 50, like I was most of last year!! :D

And regarding the question posed on several other threads, 'Are we at a top??'.......I have to follow Tom here. Until there is some kind of break (up or down) from the current narrow trading channel, you gotta believe that it will be continuing UP! :nuts:

Only question then becomes, which fund will take you the highest. I will continue to use my 2x per month modified LMBF system, even tho the straight S-Funders seem to be beating the pants off all of us! :blink:

Good Luck out there!!! :cool:
 
For my 2nd (NOT my Third!) IFT for Jan, I am putting in my 2nd attempt at my 'modified twice a month LMBF' method. Going to 30C 35S 35I cob Jan 31, from my mid Jan 47C 37S 16I.

Still all in equities!! :D
 
ChessGuy said:
You are one smart dude, uscfanhawaii!
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Shucks.....Thanks!! :embarrest:

Also just put in my mid-Feb IFT for 35C/50S/15I, effectively moving from I to C and (mainly) S, COB Friday. Still trying to max my equities while everything continues in the upward trend. Also need to keep an eye out for a big correction. Falling out of the upward trendlines should be a good indicator.

By the way, I forgot to mention that early last week TSPwealth.com went from 50S/50I to 50C/50S. I guess I am also seeing the indicators moving away from I. (No offense, BT!!) :rolleyes:

Good Luck out there!! ;)
 
Well, I put in my mid Mar IFT a little early...moving some from I back to C and S. Now I am 39C 45S and 16I. I got real tired of having the I pull me down. But I may have been premature in that.....my little bit of I saved me on Friday. ;)

And now I see that TSPWealth on Monday will go back to I, going to 33C 33S 34I, from current 50C 50S. Not that they are an expert, just another piece of info. But I do think 2013 is for equities.....just which ones to choose to maximize returns! :blink:

I never would have thought, however, that the buy and hold S funders would be ruling the day in 2013. I'm sure that there is more 'up the market's sleeve' for the rest of 2013!!

Oh...and I notice that kspecht85 is very similar to me, being at 36C 43S 18I.....and right with me on the AT!!
(and congrats to czapor for a good start to 2013!!) :cool:
 
For those of you out there who want to see how 3,4,or more IFTs are made in a month, you can look at Amoeba or ChessGuy's monthly IFTs.

OR, look at my own example in March, where I made 4 IFTs:

First 2 are allowed, as we all know.

Third was a <1% IFT (see sticky on the Account Talk main page) to increase S.

But the FORTH one! That's the one that is a good teaching example!!
For that one, I moved I to G, AND increased both my C and S with a <1% IFT.

BEFORE: G=0, C=38.9% S=46.2% I =14.9%

AFTER: G=14% C=39% S=47% I= 0

And it went thru without a hitch! :cool:
 
Somebody needs to congratulate you!
emo26.gif


http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/site-news-announcements/15781-march-madness-contest-2013-a.html#post401810

I snuck in at #5, Old Coug
 
uscfanhawaii, I see you bailed to 50G/50F today. What happened to your all equities all the time for 2013? Now you are going to have to change your tag line. :p
 
Cactus said:
uscfanhawaii, I see you bailed to 50G/50F today. What happened to your all equities all the time for 2013? Now you are going to have to change your tag line. :p
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You caught me! Alas, I apparently do not have the bullish fortitude of BT!! :blink:

So I DID change my tag line....the earnings season has me worried that it will be weak, and the seasonality is ripe for a correction. I may be out for only a short time, cause I DO think this year should favor equities overall. :D
 
uscfanhawaii said:
You caught me! Alas, I apparently do not have the bullish fortitude of BT!! :blink:

So I DID change my tag line....the earnings season has me worried that it will be weak, and the seasonality is ripe for a correction. I may be out for only a short time, cause I DO think this year should favor equities overall. :D
Click to expand...

And TODAY is a good example of my thoughts on staying in equities in 2013.....too bad I didn't take my own advice!!! :sick:
(And the VERY next day after exiting, no less!! :blink: )
 
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