uscfanhawaii's account talk

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Wow! IFTs today are overwhelmingly LONG! Maybe I missed my chance (by a day, again!) to go back in. Oh well, I will be going all in tomorrow,7-9, COB. Just need these bargain prices to last one more day! :toung:
 
uscfanhawaii said:
Wow! IFTs today are overwhelmingly LONG! Maybe I missed my chance (by a day, again!) to go back in. Oh well, I will be going all in tomorrow,7-9, COB. Just need these bargain prices to last one more day! :toung:
Click to expand...
You're right. About 10% of the herd moved out of GF and into stocks.
 
Very interesting coming week shaping up! TSP Sentiment Survey very bearish at 56% bulls and 27% bears. That Bearish Sentiment is backed up by AII Sentiment Survey of 49.7% bulls and only 22.5% bears!

Also, looks like the FED will announce the end of the 'gravy train' of printing money next week (Fed set to finally get out of the market - Oct. 26, 2014).

And the quick runup of equities last week, are now hitting EMA barriers.

A look at our own IFTs does not seem to mimic the bullish sentiment of the surveys, since most Autotracker IFTs were going OUT of equities.

On the other hand, the CNNmoney fear/greed index is still 'extreme fear' at 14.

Result?! Could be some volatile moves over the course of the week. Me....I'm stayin put, 'All In'. I plan to just weather the storm! (What the heck....it worked for Hurricanes Iselle and Ana these last few weeks!!) :cool:
 
I just got back from a FERS 'imminent' retirement seminar. At this point, I am planning to transfer out of TSP and into Vanguard Index Funds IRA. The strict rules in TSP on how much and WHAT FUNDS can be sold off for withdrawals seems unreasonable. I already have Vanguard Traditional and Roth IRA's and am very happy with them.

This is a fun article on Hedge Funds (actually mutual funds in general) vs. Vanguard Index Funds, with some important things to consider:
Two hedge fund managers walk into a bar

Any input from retirees or about to be retirees on leaving $ in TSP vs. transferring to Index Funds? I have about 2 years to decide. :scared1:
 
I retired Dec. 2012. I started to roll over TSP into Roth IRA in January of this year (2014 and 2015) and am continuing it now. The advice you get from TSP phone land depends on who you get. Looking at the TSP advice statement, written in murky legalese, you need to advise yourself. If your account guardian is good with what you do, I think that is all you need. Screw it. I like Vanguard funds. Fidelity funds look good too, but V funds look better. In retirement we invest more than trade / play the market. We don't need stress. DRIP is to be considered. Some stocks cannot be DRIPPED but are good anyway; example Royce Value Trust, a couple of flavors, RVT basically . . . As I understand the TSP rollover eligibility rule, it is that you must be withdrawing enough to deplete at this rate sooner than 10 years. So you do that. The murky legalese states they "treat these withdrawals like a lump sum". Interpret please. So I interpreted it my way, meaning get out of my way, I'm coming thru. That's it for now.
 
PessOptimist said:
uscfan, any particular reason you chose June 2017 to retire? Still trying to figure my best 2017 date.

PO
Click to expand...

As you know, there are many ideas on the best date to retire. Tammy Flanagan puts out her yearly list of the best dates to retire. But the advantages are pretty small. The major one is to get your Pension started as soon as possible after you retire. I am FERS, so that means the end of the month, to get it started by the end of the next month. (CSRS get to the 3rd of the month.) A lot of people go for the end of the year, so that they get their Lump Sum for Annual Leave at the new higher pay scale for the next year. But since our 'raises' have been on the order of 0-1%, that is hardly worth considering.

Bottom line for me....anytime near the end of the month is fine. I am looking at mid-year to allow me additional time to get in that year's TSP contributions, build up a little extra Annual Leave for the Lump Sum, and avoid the rush at year's end (OPM currently has a 18 month backlog as it is!).

Aw, heck.... the real reason is that it is close to my birthday!! :birthday:

Now, if you want to talk 'why 2017', well that's a whole other topic altogether!!
 
For my 500th post, I just have to comment on the market today...
All the equities were down today big time. I don't usually like to sell on a down day, but futures didn't look too bad, and I was thinking that the I fund was really getting wrecked by the strong dollar. So I moved half of my I funds to S, and parked the rest in G (to wait for another opportune time to buy).

I then checked what others had done on the Autotracker....it seemed like there were a lot of IFTs (like 38 or so), with NO CLEAR trend. It was all over the place. Some getting all out, others getting all in. And quite a few (like me), just moving some around. Of course, who was right will be revealed in time......but it sure looks like there will be some big winners and big losers from this day.

But what I cannot understand is how so many could go to 100% I on this day?!? That seems like a real big gamble. Yeah, it may rebound....but it is SO uncertain with the Europe issues, and a rocketing Dollar at the same time. 5 went 100% I and 3 went ~50% I. If you make money on that move, you really deserve it!! That is quite a bold move. I would love to hear your explanations. For me, I took the opposite tack and sold all my I Fund on a day that it went down 2%! :sick: Just tryin to minimize my losses.

VERY INTERESTING day! :outtahere:
 
Cograts to you on your 500th post. I have been playing it safe in the G fund waiting for this correction. I understand due to the limited trades why you stayed in instead of moving to safety, hoping to recover some if not all of your losses. On CNBC one of the analyst said he thought the dollar will move up 20% from here and that will be a headwind for our market as well as for the European market. As for who will be the winner, the jury is still out. I'm thinking the selling is not quite over and will wait at least 1-2 more trading days. You might watch to see where the VIX goes before we get the all clear. Good luck.
 
Why the ‘Smart Money’ Is Bailing Out of the Bull Market
Why the

The Bears are coming out again.....but is the 'smart money' really bailing out of this Bull Market?
 
I think the I-fund is ripe for some upside movement. QE bigtime in Europe, European stocks are much less 'overvalued' than here, despite pressure again from a stronger dollar today the I-fund held it's ground yet again. And while Europe is starting QE the U.S. keeps hinting about raising interests rate more strongly everytime Yellen speaks. If the dollar weakens...the I-fund may move quite nicely indeed IMHO.
 
usc,

What kind of solar system did you put in? I was looking at a 4.5K system on my roof. Good price and the 30% credit was appealing. But had to back away because I'm going to have to waterproof my basement and couldn't swing both costs. :(
 
nasa1974 said:
usc,

What kind of solar system did you put in? I was looking at a 4.5K system on my roof. Good price and the 30% credit was appealing. But had to back away because I'm going to have to waterproof my basement and couldn't swing both costs. :(
Click to expand...

I have to say, this was actually my second solar system installed. The first was 4.8KW Sunpower system that is tied into the electric grid. Since then, Hawaiian Electric has halted connections into their grid, saying they are 'saturated'.
So my next solar system installed was 1KW Sunpower system that is dedicated to my hot water tank. It is a 'microsystem', not connected to the grid.
I went for the best panels (Sunpower) because, well, why not?! 65% tax rebate (30% Feds, 35% state)!! The first one has already paid for itself.
And when I get my Model 3 Tesla, I will be driving on Sun Power! Literally!!
 
An Update on FRTIB possible actions. If you have been waiting since 2015 (like I have!) for TSP withdrawal options to be increased, well, as this article from FEDweek says....'don't hold your breath'.
http://www.fedweek.com/tsp/whats-store-thrift-savings-plan-2017
 
Thank you, TESLA!!
Anyone else riding the TESLA train?!?
I have TESLA in my outside Roth IRA, and it is up something like 50% THIS YEAR! All gains TAX FREE!!
I also was one of the 115,000 crazies that put down $1,000 and reserved a Model 3, BEFORE its unveiling March 31. (I was reservation #98,000 something.)
I already have Solar Photovoltaics, so will be powering my new TESLA off of the sun! I expect to get a Federal rebate of $7500 (and whatever the State rebate is) so the cost will be on the order of $25K!
TESLA has been GOOD to me....Thank you Elon Musk!! :fest30:
 
So the President has signed the bill authorizing the FRTIB to increase withdrawal options.
Let's see how long it takes them to issue the regs!

Actually, they said they had already been working on the regs since October, and should have the first set out by February to cover current retirees. Just in time for me! :nuts:
 
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