uscfanhawaii's account talk

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Sensei said:
Looks like 35% out, 65% in on the total tracker. The top and bottom are both mostly in, while those sitting out are somewhere in the middle. Not sure what to make of that, but when we were building the wall of worry, it was closer to 50/50.

By the way, you're the one who pointed out TSP Wealth - did you notice it moved to 100% G for this week? Not sure what to make of that either. :confused: Too bad there's no explanation of the system on their site.
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Yeah, I get their regular email updates. They used to put more info on their site....not sure why they don't anymore. I just use it as another data point. This move I took to be a 'save what we got so far' move....similar to the middle of the AT pack that you noticed. It still makes me nervous seeing so many in equities now on the AT.....usually a contrarian indicator!

The 'leave in May' axiom might just be a self fulfilling prophecy this year. I wonder if anyone has done a seasonal analysis of election years? Do they tend to just keep going up all year or does it still follow the regular years' seasonality? :blink:
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
I'm still trying to figure out how that site lost money in 4 of the last 7 years. 2008 I understand, but 2009? :suspicious:
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Hey, thanks for stopping by, IT! Their site is a mystery as Sensei noted, I think they are a little conservative in their moves. But it is free. I also paid for a site one year, ********, but had mixed results so did not continue. :rolleyes:
 
uscfanhawaii said:
As Tom likes to say, the market will do its best to disappoint the most people it can! :sick:
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Isn't this the truth!?!? I'm STILL holding up the whole stack, I have no idea what to do... it's gonna take some kind of miracle to get out of this situation I think... it's just sad that I tried to make what I thought were going to be good moves, and doing that without any idea of what I was doing was just foolish. We all live and learn I suppose, but this really stings :embarrest:
 
czapor1967 said:
Isn't this the truth!?!? I'm STILL holding up the whole stack, I have no idea what to do... it's gonna take some kind of miracle to get out of this situation I think... it's just sad that I tried to make what I thought were going to be good moves, and doing that without any idea of what I was doing was just foolish. We all live and learn I suppose, but this really stings :embarrest:
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Not sure I am the best one to make suggestions this year, neighbor, but my mistake this year so far has been to miss out on the 1st qtr rise....I kept waiting for a correction that still hasn't really come. Just try to pick a strategy and stick with it. They all have ups and downs. I will PM you later with a couple of other thoughts..... :D

Randy
 
In reviewing the Autotracker and comparing it to the Sentiment Survey, I notice that the AT seems to be MUCH MORE bullish. Everyone and their brother is IN on equities....and even more so at the top and the bottom. So how the market goes, the whole AT goes. (I can't get off the bottom if everyone is in equities like I am! :suspicious: )
But I guess what I am wondering is whether I should consider the AT a contrarian indicator or not. If it is.....well, it may be time to get out! :nuts:
 
uscfanhawaii said:
In reviewing the Autotracker and comparing it to the Sentiment Survey, I notice that the AT seems to be MUCH MORE bullish. Everyone and their brother is IN on equities....and even more so at the top and the bottom. So how the market goes, the whole AT goes. (I can't get off the bottom if everyone is in equities like I am! :suspicious: )
But I guess what I am wondering is whether I should consider the AT a contrarian indicator or not. If it is.....well, it may be time to get out! :nuts:
Click to expand...
Todays IFT were mostly to get out of equities and some are getting in tomorrow COB. So let's have another up day.
TSP Talk AutoTracker
 
uscfanhawaii said:
In reviewing the Autotracker and comparing it to the Sentiment Survey, I notice that the AT seems to be MUCH MORE bullish. Everyone and their brother is IN on equities....and even more so at the top and the bottom. So how the market goes, the whole AT goes. (I can't get off the bottom if everyone is in equities like I am! :suspicious: )
But I guess what I am wondering is whether I should consider the AT a contrarian indicator or not. If it is.....well,it may be time to get out! :nuts:
Click to expand...

You had a very good year in 2011 and still have time to get back on track.
 
So....yeah, lots are bailing! Still, the top is 75% in equities. I gotta let it ride for now, especially with Seven Sentinels getting back in. :D

I checked the Sentimentrader site....They like equities when the discount rate is steady....saying that the 6 months starting in May (the so-called sell in 'May...' axiom) are actually not too bad in our current circumstances. And with this being an election year, I think you have to go along with the market unless the charts are really telling us something else.

So I am with you, Bquat and HB, let's go!!! :cool:
 
Per TSPWealth, they are going 50C/50S and said, 'New allocations for the TSP are shown on the web site at www.tspwealth.com. The financial markets are recovering from a shallow correction and are moving higher.'

Maybe the bailing in the AT IS a contrarian indicator. Or NOT, I know a lot of people are concerned (including ME :blink:) about the 'Sell in May....' since I have been burned more than once in early May. But except for JKenSystem getting out, seems like most of the systems are getting in or staying in. Could it be due to the election year, and the normal seasonality is not in play???

I am sitting on the fence here..... :worried:
 
uscfanhawaii said:
Per TSPWealth, they are going 50C/50S and said, 'New allocations for the TSP are shown on the web site at www.tspwealth.com. The financial markets are recovering from a shallow correction and are moving higher.'

Maybe the bailing in the AT IS a contrarian indicator. Or NOT, I know a lot of people are concerned (including ME :blink:) about the 'Sell in May....' since I have been burned more than once in early May. But except for JKenSystem getting out, seems like most of the systems are getting in or staying in. Could it be due to the election year, and the nornal seasonality is not in play???

I am sitting on the fence here..... :worried:[/QUOTE

I'll be checking our leaders tomorrow and see if they put in IFTs reducing their risk in CSI funds. If so hope they show up on new IFTs early enough for us to decide if its for us or not. I may just use my last IFT for this month tomorrow any way.

Happy trails to you all.
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As I write this, Futures are up marginally, but the Hang Seng is OPEN and UP 1.63%!!

So things are still looking UP! :D

I am still nervous though! :worried: May 1st is Tuesday already!
 
Yikes! So much for futures....today has been ugly from the start. Still, I guess I will use my last IFT of the month to shift more to I and follow the leaders. Going to 10/80/10 C/S/I. :cool:
 
When I look at the tracker the second thing I do (first being where I am) is look for you. I don't know why but I do. Hate seeing you way in the bottom. Pulling for you to get out of there. :)
 
imike023 said:
When I look at the tracker the second thing I do (first being where I am) is look for you. I don't know why but I do. Hate seeing you way in the bottom. Pulling for you to get out of there. :)
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Thanks for the good word, imike! But you probably look at me to make sure you do the exact OPPOSITE!! :rolleyes:

Seriously, I appreciate the thought....I need all the help I can get! I did well last year, but my downfall this year was doubting the trend for the first 3 months. I guess thats why they say not to fight the trend.....I really thought there would be a correction much earlier and kept waiting for that good time to get in. It came.....after I got in. :(

I thought I had a chance to get off of Ocean's Bottom 10 today, but the market could not quite hold on. I have decided to try and stay IN the market for most of the rest of the year to take advantage of the election year euphoria. Just don't stay OUT too long, yourself!
 
uscfanhawaii said:
Thanks for the good word, imike! But you probably look at me to make sure you do the exact OPPOSITE!! :rolleyes:

Seriously, I appreciate the thought....I need all the help I can get! I did well last year, but my downfall this year was doubting the trend for the first 3 months. I guess thats why they say not to fight the trend.....I really thought there would be a correction much earlier and kept waiting for that good time to get in. It came.....after I got in. :(

I thought I had a chance to get off of Ocean's Bottom 10 today, but the market could not quite hold on. I have decided to try and stay IN the market for most of the rest of the year to take advantage of the election year euphoria. Just don't stay OUT too long, yourself!
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Me too... :mad:
 
In spite of the chance that I may be opening up my account talk thread to attack, I wanted to post this article to try and set the record straight. I couldn't find another thread that was still talking about Federal Spending under different administrations so I am posting it in my own account talk thread.

But if I were to ask:
'Which recent administration increased Federal Spending the MOST?'
A. Reagan's first term
B. Bush I first term
C. Clinton second term
D. Bush II second term
E. Obama first term
What would you answer?

A clue is from this recent article in MarketWatch Obama spending binge never happened - Rex Nutting - MarketWatch where in part he says "Of all the falsehoods told about President Barack Obama, the biggest whopper is the one about his reckless spending spree."

PS, the answer is A, followed closely by D. E is LOWEST.
 
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