uscfanhawaii's account talk

[MrJohnRoss]

I am ready to make my 2nd IFT for Feb. I patiently waited for the 'drop' that did not come and now I am a humble #614 on AT...but rising slowly! TSP Wealth (Thrift Savings Plan - create prosperity with TSPWealth.com) has been all in all 2012, and are now switching more to the I fund. Sentiment Survey Fund has been in S all year. LMBM has also been in. Now JTH is testing the water! So come on, Chess Guy, Andercee, LAT, Widget....waddaya say?! Let's go for it! Monday is looking like a good entry point. (So, John Ross, your system change back to BUY yet?) I tell you one thing...if someone had told me on Jan 1 that there would be folks on the AT at 15% by end of Feb, I would have laughed in their face. 15% by year end, yes, but not by end of Feb. So cautiously enter...but be ready to pull the plug at the first sign of trouble! :nuts:

No, my new system is still on a sell signal. What I've found interesting is that my previous system has still not generated a sell signal... yet. So my previous system is slightly outperforming my new system ever so slightly so far this year, since it has been in the market all year. Long term performance shows a distinct advantage to my new system, however.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

No, my new system is still on a sell signal. What I've found interesting is that my previous system has still not generated a sell signal... yet. So my previous system is slightly outperforming my new system ever so slightly so far this year, since it has been in the market all year. Long term performance shows a distinct advantage to my new system, however.

Thanks, John, for posting back. Interesting that your old system stayed in...seems like all the systems are balancing at a crux.....market could go either way. I went all in today thinking it would be a down day and a good time to get in, but the way it looks now, the market turned around and will be about even today.
I'll have to watch closely in case it takes a turn for the worse, and I have to pull out in a hurry! :worried:

 

[MaStA]

Thanks, John, for posting back. Interesting that your old system stayed in...seems like all the systems are balancing at a crux.....market could go either way. I went all in today thinking it would be a down day and a good time to get in, but the way it looks now, the market turned around and will be about even today.
I'll have to watch closely in case it takes a turn for the worse, and I have to pull out in a hurry! :worried:

Unfortunately I think systems are going to have a hard time predicting what happens next. I don't think the technicals (as the masters know them) are really holding true at this time for the most part. Any negative/positive news from left field can strike a rally or correction with no notice and I don't think technicals can predict the news.

With how the stocks work there is always someone making a move in the opposite direction of someone else. So I'm sure someone's system will always look like it made the right call, but I'm sure there will be other times that the person's system did not make the right calls when others did...

but then again what do I know?

 

[uscfanhawaii]

...but then again what do I know?

MaStA, You know PLENTY if you were able to get 9.7% in only 1 month in this market! I would be so lucky to match you in the next month! :blink:

 

[MaStA]

MaStA, You know PLENTY if you were able to get 9.7% in only 1 month in this market! I would be so lucky to match you in the next month! :blink:

Honestly I think it was mere luck that the market skyrocketed from the beginning of the year and I think a lot of people you find at the top of the tracker are in the luck boat. Not trying to discredit anyone, but look at my last year's return lol. I'm still trying to get that back so to me I am still negative.

So far this year the buy and hold method has worked quite well for many people. As the months progress I'm sure we will see a lot of changes on the tracker...unless we continue to skyrocket...which would be great as well lol.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Honestly I think it was mere luck that the market skyrocketed from the beginning of the year and I think a lot of people you find at the top of the tracker are in the luck boat. Not trying to discredit anyone, but look at my last year's return lol. I'm still trying to get that back so to me I am still negative.

Any way you slice it.....Luck or Strategy....I could sure use some to lift me up from my 2%. And as I write this, Futures look good for tomorrow so far.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

For those of you who are looking forward to the Roth TSP option, the TSP website has started putting out info on the differences between the traditional and the Roth.
Also, GovExec has a good article that tries to put examples out to illustrate the differences. Go to:

[url]http://gerp.govexec-media.com/portal/wts/cemcfOaOoAmbaSBg6ie8yRa-8ksxva[/URL]


I will also post this on the Roth thread.

For me, I only have a few years left till retirement, but I am interested in Roth from the tax diversification standpoint. I would like to be able to pull from a Roth or Traditional as needs arise in retirement. So no matter what happens to tax rates or my personal situation, I will have that option. And since you can't withdraw from Roth until 5 years after your first deposit, I plan to do at least some Roth as soon as it becomes available so I can 'start the clock'.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Wow! Did you see my comment on my IFT today? And that was before the market really took off. So, did I catch the dead cat bounce and the market will continue down tomorrow....or was yesterday just a fluke day in the continuing bull market?! I will go with Tom's commentary for today...historically, after a big 'up rally' that dives, the market is still DOWN 2-4 weeks later. So my plan is to look for an entry point in 2-4 weeks. Comments? :worried:

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Yahoo!!!!

100 Posts!!!

Thanks everyone for all the good info and friendly advice! I am so glad I found this site and I heartily recommend it to all TSP'ers!!

Thanks, especially, to Tom, for all your time and efforts you put in to this site!

Mahalo All! :cheesy:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Congrats on your posts!!!

 

[nasa1974]

Congrats on hitting the first 100. Looking forward to many more.

 

[uscfanhawaii]

So for my second IFT for March, I am now ALL IN! 50-25-25, C/S/I. Of course, I am #1007 on the AT (I didn't even know it went past 1000!) so everyone should seriously consider doing the OPPOSITE of me. At least I have some consolation knowing that John is also going in today....and he also chose C! :blink:

Good Luck to all in this crazy market!

 

[Bquat]

So for my second IFT for March, I am now ALL IN! 50-25-25, C/S/I. Of course, I am #1007 on the AT (I didn't even know it went past 1000!) so everyone should seriously consider doing the OPPOSITE of me. At least I have some consolation knowing that John is also going in today....and he also chose C! :blink:

Good Luck to all in this crazy market!

Hi neighbor.

 

[ChessGuy]

USCfan, unlike wildwoman [or crazywoman, I can't remember] from last year's TSP Tracker, you are not intentionally trying to be at the bottom of the 1000+ heap. I've missed several opportunities in 2012 to capitalize on the market's moves because of our restrictive two-trades-a-month limit. Oh, well. -- ChessGuy

 

[uscfanhawaii]

USCfan, unlike wildwoman from last year's TSP Tracker, you are not intentionally trying to be at the bottom of the 1000+ heap. I've missed several opportunities in 2012 to capitalize on the market's moves because of our restrictive two-trades-a-month limit. Oh, well. -- ChessGuy

Thanks for the good word....I have been expecting a big correction for some time and that has kept me out of the big gains this year. I think there have been quite a few in my position...you have escaped the really bad results so good for you! As for Wildwoman....she is doing VERY WELL this year....so congrats to her on a good turnaround!

Anyway, I am in for the long(er) haul this time around...altho I still think there is a big drop coming by summer. But who knows...this is an election year so maybe it will be smooth sailing all the way to the elections!

 

[uscfanhawaii]

No offense meant to you, czapor, but thanks for keeping me off the BOTTOM of the AT, at least for now. :nuts:

Wow, how fickle this market can be....I still remember being as high as #13 on the AT at one point last year. Now, at #1012, I am 1 away from being at the very BOTTOM. And I don't think I have really changed my approach to investing. As I have said many times to my good friend, Widget, the problem with timing the market is that you can't just be right ONCE on your moves....you have to be right TWICE. And sometimes 3 TIMES, to avoid being eaten alive! Thanks also to Chess Guy, for your encouragement!

With these things in mind...I will carry on!!! No more fighting this market, I am in for the long haul, believing that the economy IS rebounding, that this is an ELECTION year, and that BIRCH is ON TO SOMETHING!!!

FIGHT ON!!!

 

[jpcavin]

Hey USC. I hear ya. I was on the top 5 for a while. Found lots of friends that I didn't even know I had (get my drift?). Then I went down to the 500 club. Now I'm just a fleeting memory. But I'm making a comeback. Just wait and see.
FIGHT ON brother!!

 

[uscfanhawaii]

Hey USC. I hear ya. I was on the top 5 for a while. Found lots of friends that I didn't even know I had (get my drift?). Then I went down to the 500 club. Now I'm just a fleeting memory. But I'm making a comeback. Just wait and see.
FIGHT ON brother!!

Thanks for the good word! Looks like you are really making a good comeback!!! 200's now. I moved up from 2nd from the bottom to third from the bottom, but dropped my actual number to 1014 from 1012 due to new members joining in. But then, out of all the members who have been in the AT since the beginning of the year, I am on the very bottom! Ouch!!

Still, I think I am in good company of you and many others that are 'ALL IN' now. Let's ride this Bull!!

 

[czapor1967]

No offense meant to you, czapor, but thanks for keeping me off the BOTTOM of the AT, at least for now. :nuts:

Wow, how fickle this market can be....I still remember being as high as #13 on the AT at one point last year. Now, at #1012, I am 1 away from being at the very BOTTOM. And I don't think I have really changed my approach to investing. As I have said many times to my good friend, Widget, the problem with timing the market is that you can't just be right ONCE on your moves....you have to be right TWICE. And sometimes 3 TIMES, to avoid being eaten alive! Thanks also to Chess Guy, for your encouragement!

With these things in mind...I will carry on!!! No more fighting this market, I am in for the long haul, believing that the economy IS rebounding, that this is an ELECTION year, and that BIRCH is ON TO SOMETHING!!!

FIGHT ON!!!

none taken usc! at least I'm in good company... we wont be down here for long, and besides there's nowhere to go but up from here, let's go!!!

 

[KneednDough]

A day like today sure lifted my spirits after feeling like I've been kicked in the dirt. I am sitting deep down in this bucket too (like 1010 on the AT), and am glad we will get out of the 1000 and below rankings. Lets hope this continues tomorrow.