Uptrend's Account Talk

[Mcqlives]

I understand but thanks for the clarification. After todays whipsaw we may actually, finally, be getting near, timewise, to a bottom.

 

[Uptrend]

Not yet.

No capitulation has been seen. Here is a chart of the NYSE percent of stocks trading above thier 50 day moving average. When the red line on the ROC is broken, we will know the rebound has started as seen after August 8 after the first collaspe. If the green line rules and a double bottom is in play on this indicator, then time projects the bottom in about 2 weeks.

IMO, expect some more violent whipsaw action as primary ewave A concludes.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Sorry Uptrend, but what green line?

 

[Warrenlm]

Maybe the Green Line is well below the values on this chart? <wry smile> (it's blue on my monitor too)

 

[Mcqlives]

Not yet.

No capitulation has been seen. Here is a chart of the NYSE percent of stocks trading above thier 50 day moving average. When the red line on the ROC is broken, we will know the rebound has started as seen after August 8 after the first collaspe. If the green line rules and a double bottom is in play on this indicator, then time projects the bottom in about 2 weeks.

IMO, expect some more violent whipsaw action as primary ewave A concludes.


View attachment 15610

Thanks...at lease we, maybe, have a target time for the bottom. And, for the record, that is one ugly chart!

 

[Uptrend]

Q Has Primary A ended at SPX 1074?
A I am not sure. Watching for a higher low or a lower low to clarify. Chart bias on a number of charts is for a lower low in the 1040 region, but I am open minded and looking for clues.

The flash in the pan rally from last Tuesday-Thursday did not trigger an Uptrend buy signal.

Volatility check. See chart.

 

[Bquat]

Re: SELLSELL

Uptrend,

Going back to your bear market roadmap, if the market didn't go all the way to 1040 (1076), would that raise the high from 1202. Could we break the top of your channel or is that 1202 set? I stayed in another day because of no sell off and a high base forming. Interested in what you think because you occupy 1/4 of my trading brain.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Not yet.

No capitulation has been seen. Here is a chart of the NYSE percent of stocks trading above thier 50 day moving average. When the red line on the ROC is broken, we will know the rebound has started as seen after August 8 after the first collaspe. If the green line rules and a double bottom is in play on this indicator, then time projects the bottom in about 2 weeks.

IMO, expect some more violent whipsaw action as primary ewave A concludes.


View attachment 15610

In this market, are you sure we will see capitulation? It will take something fairly dramatic to cause that type of selloff. l'm just not sure what it would be, except for European problems? I don't think fundamantals are bad.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I don't think fundamantals are bad.

Um, the world economies are bad, ours is bad (and not getting better), so what fundamentals to which are you referring?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Stock valuations are the lowest they have been in a really long time. P/E ratios below 10. Companies are earning money and their stock is cheap. That is what I was referring to.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Stock valuations are the lowest they have been in a really long time. P/E ratios below 10. Companies are earning money and their stock is cheap. That is what I was referring to.

In that context, gotcha... overall economic fundamentals are in the toilet... but stocks ARE cheap.

 

[jkenjohnson]

In that context, gotcha... overall economic fundamentals are in the toilet... but stocks ARE cheap.

So Birchtree is correct in buying now and holding for one heck of a future payoff - may take forever, but it's gonna be big.

 

[Uptrend]

Well, I missed a 13.5% rally in 7 trading days. Real fireworks. The intermediate low might be in, but then again it might not be in.

My uptrend system has posted a buy for the F fund today; possibly short-term. Looking for SPX to pull back between 1160 and 1130 after hitting that SPX 1220 resistance area Wednesday. This might be a two hopper on the lily pads; F now and S in a few days. Or, if as past fractals indicate, we might just crash and the F will soar.

Here is the TNX chart for your entertainment. Remember that the F fund moves in reverse of this chart.

 

[Uptrend]

Looks like the A wave of Primary wave B might have just ended. I am watching for a downside target of between SPX 1160-1130, before we see a reversal. But if the big SPX heavyweights outperform this week like BAC, GS and APPL, then the market might visit SPX 1230-1250 first. But then Europe and ?? The US dollar is up and looks like a solid reversal to me (UUP jumps back above 200 sma), so I am expecting a little correction here.

 

[Uptrend]

Is up or down in the SPX intermediate future? The market could go either way, but there is a downward bias at this time. The chart shows my thinking and is in the weekly timeframe. There is a pretty good chance we are in primary wave B, and then the major B wave should be underway. The market could find support between about SPX 1130-1165 and then shoot upwards past SPX 1235, or could fall below the lower channel drawn coming in about SPX 1080. I am thinking the market rallies after a brush with about SPX 1150 to complete wave C, but do not have a hard target for the top. We will just have to monitor the indicators.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Uptrend. I cannot see the homepage this morning. Are you having the same problem?

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend. I cannot see the homepage this morning. Are you having the same problem?

No I see everything on the site.

BYW It is all there, SPX rising while MACD and ROC falling, SPX against resistance. AGG rising and MACD and ROC rising. Bullishness rising. Options X usually marks intermediate tops or bottoms. Conclusion is that a move is coming Monday. Me thinks down.

 

[Bquat]

No I see everything on the site.

BYW It is all there, SPX rising while MACD and ROC falling, SPX against resistance. AGG rising and MACD and ROC rising. Bullishness rising. Options X usually marks intermediate tops or bottoms. Conclusion is that a move is coming Monday. Me thinks down.

I was thinking that too but we just broke major resistance. I was thinking this was a bull trap but it may be taking hold. Wheres the 200 MA?

 

[Uptrend]

I was thinking that too but we just broke major resistance. I was thinking this was a bull trap but it may be taking hold. Wheres the 200 MA?

If a breakout, depends on the close. You can throw a pin through resistance and still close below for a fakeout. Not sure if there is expectations of some kind of European agreement or just options X driving the rally. Remember, options weeks tend to reverse the following week. If this does breakout, SPX will go to 1260 in a very short timeframe.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Wheres the 200 MA?

Today it is at about 1274.69, so as it will be resistance, there is some pretty good resistance at the 1260 Uptrend is talking about.