Uptrend's Account Talk

[jkenjohnson]

Hmmm -- you're probably right. Think I'll still keep an eye on/around that date anyway -- you never know. I can use and will take any help I can get with determining a low.

I agree. I would not totally disregard it, but I would not rely solely on it either.

 

[Uptrend]

My Uptrend system posted a buy signal yesterday by 1130 EST, but I could not update in this thread , because I was posting from my android phone and did not have Toms latest software installed. So the message dialog box would not open. I did get the tracker updated before I left my desktop. Needless to say, IMO this is a very short term (VST) buy, unless SPX 1197 is taken out. The 0.618 fibonacci retracement is the near target coming in near SPX 1180 and is pretty much backtesting the bear flag break with a little overshoot. If this is passed and the market gets above the 1187 pivot (it has been tagged on the open) and then 1197, then 1260 is in the cards and a backtest the 200 ema. This would trigger a general buy signal at this point. I do not feel good about this trade, unless these levels are met and may sell today. I had a September IFT to give and was using it, when the market turned and decided to backtest. Confused on what to do? Me too, the market moves have been challenging to say the least.

Here is an alternate scenario chart showing a SPX 1255-1272 target. I have not decided what that does to the bear flag and have no idea if this new scenario will play out. Just thinking out loud.

 

[Uptrend]

SELL
SELL

Selling my position and going to G. VIX too high. Will wait till October to see what happens,up or downside.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: SELL
SELL

Selling my position and going to G. VIX too high. Will wait till October to see what happens,up or downside.

It is pretty high, but it is currently down 3 points (8.4%). Sure hope it keeps falling back into the teens.

 

[Uptrend]

Here is a roadmap I put together for the SPX bear market. The market has morphed in various ways in the last few weeks. The chart shows an expanded channel (which may or may not happen -only one touch point on the upper dotted line so far). Anyway it uses relationships to determine the roadmap. Is the bear flag still in play? I don't really know, as it seems to be losing some importance. However, the bear market scenario drawn shows an equivalent final low next spring near the March 2009 low coming in near 670. Accident or fate? We shall find out, and that is what is so exciting about markets.

I have included the possible wave structure as I see it. When Primary wave B starts, you will want to have an IFT available, as It will retrace about half the previous decline and the way I figure it is about 15% for a position trade (C fund, and more for the S fund), and even more if you swing trade the waves correctly. It's your best chance to strike back and make up some losses, if that is where you find yourself. IMO this trade should develop by mid-October.

BTW, todays price action left a topping candle on the SPX and was a low volume rally. No commitment to hold positions -yet. I did a one day scalp trade for about 2%, because I had an IFT sitting on the table. Not the best opportunity, but I took it. The speed of the reversal today shows fear. SPX 1146 needs to be taken out for downside to continue. Happy trading.

 

[coolhand]

Hi UT,

Your chart pretty much describes my expectations for the rest of the year. One more shot down before a huge bear market rally. Thanks for the analysis.

 

[Khotso]

Here is a roadmap I put together for the SPX bear market. ... However, the bear market scenario drawn shows an equivalent final low next spring near the March 2009 low coming in near 670. ...

I have included the possible wave structure as I see it. ...
View attachment 15487

I have trouble "seeing" and understanding the specific multi-level waves in the overall wave structure -- but then I don't know diddly about EW Theory. Can you recommend a good read/source for better understanding?

 

[Bquat]

Thanks for the excellent chart. I was looking just out to that next down comming soon. Didn't look out as far as you but can add this to my bag of tricks.

It may add to my spidey sense for the up side later. I've been good at missing drops but not so good on gains, but it has been serving me well lately.

 

[Uptrend]

I have trouble "seeing" and understanding the specific multi-level waves in the overall wave structure -- but then I don't know diddly about EW Theory. Can you recommend a good read/source for better understanding?

Ralph Elliot invented the wave theory in the 1920's. It is really the study of human behavior in a wave form that is sometimes mathematical and sometimes a bit of an art in interpretation. Elliot Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior is a great read. You will either love it or hate it, as it is technical. Of course Amazon has it:
http://www.amazon.com/Elliott-Wave-...=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1317266531&sr=1-3

 

[Uptrend]

I have been a serious student of the market for the last four years, with many failures, until I learned the basics of technical analysis, Trading markets are tricky. I started showing my Uptrend System in July. Performance for the last quarter (July-September) is shown below:

Total Trades: 3

IFTs: 6 (roundtrip to G)

Market Exposure: Out 81% of the time

Returns:
C: 8.27%
S: 8.80%
I: 11.46%
My Allocation Mix: 10.09%
F: Not traded at this time

Current level on Tracker: 27

I am looking forward to the next quarter for more buying opportunities.

 

[Uptrend]

Am on the road today so be brief. Still projecting another 5 to 10 trading days to the next swing low; SPX 1040 to 1090. TA and Uptrend system on sell. F fund on buy if you wish to use an IFT. Will have more in depth report when situation starts to change. Cash is king at this time.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Am on the road today so be brief. Still projecting another 5 to 10 trading days to the next swing low; SPX 1040 to 1090. TA and Uptrend system on sell. F fund on buy if you wish to use an IFT. Will have more in depth report when situation starts to change. Cash is king at this time.

We're getting close to 1090 today!

 

[Cactus]

We're getting close to 1090 today!

Yea, but you need to figure in some time for a bounce, some consolidation, then back down. And don't forget that Monday is a holiday. I don't think today is the bottom.

 

[cak165]

Is anyone taking into consideration a "black swan" type of event that would be set off by some of the various external factors that are controlling the markets these days? Does it make sense to look at support levels when there are so many uncertainties out there?

 

[Warrenlm]

Along those lines, I keep remembering Lakshman Acuthan saying this recession, that we are already in, will be bad, but even worse if there is a shock ala Lehman of 2008. There seems to be many opportunities around the world for a shock to occur. Support levels maybe just speed bumps as one CNBC talking head called them. But, we've been here before in gloom only to find a rabbit coming out of a hat. And governments everywhere are "all in". Fiat currency to the rescue. Dennis knows eventually his dividends will keep pace with the cost of coffee.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Yea, but you need to figure in some time for a bounce, some consolidation, then back down. And don't forget that Monday is a holiday. I don't think today is the bottom.

I agree. I think we have further to fall. I was just saying that we had already hit 1090.

 

[clester]

1042 is your target uptrend, right? Anyway, that looks about right to me. I am looking at the 1050 area for a bounce. That's the last area of consolidation below us. The way we're trading that could be soon.

 

[Uptrend]

1042 is your target uptrend, right? Anyway, that looks about right to me. I am looking at the 1050 area for a bounce. That's the last area of consolidation below us. The way we're trading that could be soon.

Lets use 1040 as the intermediate target. There is little price support at SPX 1075 hit today. I expect a pretty good bounce off of 1040, but it may or may not be the final low of primary wave 1 of the current bear market. The developing ewave structure suggests even lower lows to the 985 area. This is where the giant bear flag pointed. My indicators say to hold cash today.

 

[Mcqlives]

Lets use 1040 as the intermediate target. There is little price support at SPX 1075 hit today. I expect a pretty good bounce off of 1040, but it may or may not be the final low of primary wave 1 of the current bear market. The developing ewave structure suggests even lower lows to the 985 area. This is where the giant bear flag pointed. My indicators say to hold cash today.

The crazy thing is that we could see all of the above numbers over a very few trading sessions. I expect a bounce to the 1097 area with a retest of 1075 followed by a breakdown to the 1040 mark. After that I am assuming the 1040 to 1075ish will repeat the same type of movement and then we will, hopefully, find the bottom.

 

[Uptrend]

To clarify my last post, lets' just say that I am still not sure on the correct ewave count for primary wave one of this bear market. Arguments can be made for the SPX 1040 area as the end of the waves and arguments can be made for the SPX 985 area. Compare my posts # 2185 aand 2133. The whipsaw activity since August has made the count hard to follow, with a bunch of possibilities. What is sure however, is that the support level at 1040 looks to me like some type of concrete.