Uptrend's Account Talk

[polarbear]

Thanks, Uptrend. I was referring to what comes next. The action right now with the EURUSD, USDX, and AGG is attention getting.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EURUSD=X "Euro plummets to a 6-month low as Greece default nears, Dollar rallies sharply as the Risk Drift Stalls, Euro Tumbles"

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=nybot_dx (USDX)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=agg&ql=1 (Selling picks up a notch as Euro worries grow; I said QE3 isn't coming, and the Fed agrees with me (SeekingAlpha))

Yes, as to the 3rd wave down of 4 of primary I per your reading, it makes sense to me.

And correspondingly with the T10:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^TNX It exceeded my expectations! Interesting: "Dow and S&P remain below annual pivot points"
Even better yet: "Why the Fed's Operation Twist won't work" ! Things are getting interesting. And opinions, too.
Thot I'd check in with Mr. Vix: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^vix&ql=1 over 40 ! (+16%)
Read Nesto's article in Yahoo Finance, he picks up on coolhand, "The beat goes on". Cool. So Greece may default this weekend.
Very interesting (Get Smart). Remarkable (Weezer). A pappa ooh-mow-mow (me).

 

[Mcqlives]

If that breaks (around SPX 1148), then the large bear flag, as a target prediction tool, is in play, because that is the lower boundary of the flag.

View attachment 15282

Great chart Uptrend. I am looking at the short term movement as well and trend lined 1174 and 1150 (short term lower high and daily low) and that really paints a gloomy picture. I initially took your post 2133 with a grain of salt. I was not seeing where you cited 985 as a SPX possible bottom as a possibility but instead was looking about 40 points higher. I am now realizing the 985 is a distinct possibility and am revising my timeline accordingly.

Thanks for all the posts! Best of luck and I hope you have a great weekend!!!

 

[Uptrend]

On 8/21 I projected a turn date as September 6-7 time period (post 2069). The turn date came on 9/2, one trading day early and was down. I was projecting up, but now know that the direction (polarity) cannot always be determined mathematically. The next significant turn date I have is 9/26 (Monday). So, if the downside continues, I am guessing a reversal by the date. Projections are between SPX 1036-967 for min and max fall.

Some say we will bounce right here off the trendline. Not so sure, doubt it, but am open to observe whatever happens.

September is living up to it's name.

 

[Vnc1701]

Any comments on Pretchers Alternative counts? I'd love to hear. Thanks in advance.

 

[Vnc1701]

Forgot to say you've been dead on recently

 

[Uptrend]

Any comments on Pretchers Alternative counts? I'd love to hear. Thanks in advance.

Don't follow Pretcher, but will look into it. Elliot wave theory is only one thing I use in TA. But it sure does give a visual and then you can play what if games with different scenarios and see how it lines up with other TA.

Today I reviewed the french, german, english, and japanese markets (CAC, DAX, FTSE, NIKK). All I can say is wow, they are still deteriorating.

Today when the market gapped down it threw a candlestick pin through the lower bear flag support line, but recovered. In my view in TA, that weakens the support line and the break should come on the next try. Now to the late day bounce; I don't think we will exceed the 1172-1187 area. The resistance levels and then at the extreme (if it goes that far) the sloping downtrend line, will come into play and stop the advance as shown on the chart. I don't see any advance going on past Thursday or Friday this week. The current SPX wave structure might be starting wave 2 of 5 of wave 5 of primary wave one. I believe the relief rally lies ahead when the downward target is reached, now between SPX 969-974. The first part of the nasty fall was the US bonds rating downgrade to create the bear flag pole, and IMO the second part of the fall, once the flag is completed, will be when Greece defaults. It appears to be getting close -probably within a week? Or else some other kind of bad news. Waiting out the storm.

 

[Uptrend]

Patterns within Patterns

I still think the large bear flag on SPX is in play for the big picture. But look at this pattern on the SPX hourly; the familiar head and shoulders. The measurement is to 1041 where there is very good support and a playable bounce. The way I have drawn the neckline is not perfect, and you could draw a sloping neckline also, but the pattern is still there.

 

[Warrenlm]

Kyle Bass was on CNBC and said Greece will default because Germany can see the road ahead, if they bail them out again, only leads to the inability to enforce any agreement on repayment. He also said we will see a recession next year. He also noted that Tim's soothing words on the ability of Europe to control things omitted anything about the value of bank equity.

 

[Uptrend]

That was a great options run; SPX 1136-1220 (intra-day). Signals are bullish at this time. But that does not mean anything IMO because the market is news driven. It was ready to go over a cliff on Monday, and now is saved? Don't believe it! Lower lows are ahead. Markets tend to reverse after options weeks. You can see the bearish rising wedge on the SPX hourly chart. Volatility is still 2%, up or down daily. We need a close below 1187 and preferably today or Monday to continue the downtrend. Otherwise the dotted trendline on the chart could get backtested and the market goes to the 1260-1270 area.

 

[Happy_Trails]

That was a great options run; SPX 1136-1220 (intra-day). Signals are bullish at this time. But that does not mean anything IMO because the market is news driven. It was ready to go over a cliff on Monday, and now is saved? Don't believe it! Lower lows are ahead. Markets tend to reverse after options weeks. You can see the bearish rising wedge on the SPX hourly chart. Volatility is still 2%, up or down daily. We need a close below 1187 and preferably today or Monday to continue the downtrend. Otherwise the dotted trendline on the chart could get backtested and the market goes to the 1260-1270 area.

View attachment 15365

I respect what you have to say Uptrend but if the market wants to go to 1260 or higher, why is that bad?

 

[Appatite]

I believe ya Uptrend. I just moved mostly out of S fund COB. Hopefully the market will not tank until monday.

 

[Uptrend]

I respect what you have to say Uptrend but if the market wants to go to 1260 or higher, why is that bad?

It’s never bad when you can anticipate and profit from it (which I didn't). Because of price action and unfolding ewave structure recently, I have revised the ewave count as a primary ABC, with 3 major waves in each, and in turn with 3 subwaves. The structure is [(A (A (abc), B(abc), C(abc)),(B (A(abc), B(abc), C(abc)), (C (A(abc), B(abc), C(abc))] So far we are at:[(A (A (abc), B(abc), C(abc)),(B (A(abc), B(abc), C(a... as seen on the SPX hourly chart. This chart shows the primary B wave and the major and subwaves within. The B wave is the partial retracement of primary wave A and is an upwave. It is almost complete except for subwaves b and c to come of major C. This is the bear flag.

I had to revise the count from 5 major waves in each primary wave to three major waves in each primary wave, based on unfolding wave structure. The wave structure invalidated my previous assumptions of a 5-5-3 to a 3-3-3. This count follows Tony Coldaro's ewave count found here:
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/09/17/weekend-update-310/

My uptrend system will probably flip to a buy when the current b subwave of major wave C concludes. I expect the down move to find support at either SPX 1187, or 1168-76. Then a ride to SPX 1268 is in the cards, and within the parameters of the big bear flag under construction. On the last rise (subwave a of major C) the internals were too weak, and it was mostly a short covering rally. However, it was profitable for the players. The concluding upwave should be just as good.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Uptrend - how does this morning gap down affect your outlook?

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend - how does this morning gap down affect your outlook?

No changes in outlook. Internals are just pointing down. Tech and NDX-Nasdaq 100 are holding up (except selling in the last few hours today), but that is because Amazon and Apple are heavily weighted in the index. I don't expect Bernanke to say anything tomorrow to move the market, but who knows? There is already inflation, so he really cant juice them with QE3 money printing. Flattening the yield curve with the "twist" won't do anything because mortgage rates are already really low. I think the FED is running low on options. Besides, what little benefit there might be has been baked in the market. I expect the sell-off to continue and find support at SPX 1168 or so.

I found this chart interesting (at the link below), but am not sure it means anything. You could come up with similar statistics by chance. It crosses completed wave patterns that just does not seem right. Fooling you with numbers.

http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/09/sp500-time-ratio-2007-11.html

 

[jkenjohnson]

No changes in outlook. Internals are just pointing down. Tech and NDX-Nasdaq 100 are holding up (except selling in the last few hours today), but that is because Amazon and Apple are heavily weighted in the index. I don't expect Bernanke to say anything tomorrow to move the market, but who knows? There is already inflation, so he really cant juice them with QE3 money printing. Flattening the yield curve with the "twist" won't do anything because mortgage rates are already really low. I think the FED is running low on options. Besides, what little benefit there might be has been baked in the market. I expect the sell-off to continue and find support at SPX 1168 or so.

I found this chart interesting (at the link below), but am not sure it means anything. You could come up with similar statistics by chance. It crosses completed wave patterns that just does not seem right. Fooling you with numbers.

http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/09/sp500-time-ratio-2007-11.html

I got out yesterday, and I have shorted the Wilshire 4500, so lets go down and get it over with.

 

[Khotso]

No changes in outlook. Internals are just pointing down. ...
I found this chart interesting (at the link below), but am not sure it means anything. You could come up with similar statistics by chance. It crosses completed wave patterns that just does not seem right. Fooling you with numbers.

http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/09/sp500-time-ratio-2007-11.html

Ha! Looks to me like a bad moon rising! :toung:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BmEGm-mraE" data-cke-saved-href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BmEGm-mraE">

 

[Uptrend]

Ha! Looks to me like a bad moon rising! :toung:

Yeah, but I like this one better. Fits those intra-day reversals to the downside.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gu2pVPWGYMQ

 

[Uptrend]

Right Here Right Now

Thats right. The futures are down tonight. We need a stop right here at 1154 on the SPX for the wave structure to remain intact and start a rally to the upper side of the bear flag; 1245-1270 target area. The futures (E-mini SPX in this case) can move 5-7 points lower as there is a consistent differential.

And if we get a market close below SPX 1163 for more than 1-2 trading days, there is a high chance the large bear flag will play out in the coming days with a target to SPX 977. That could take 1-3 months, and I know we will visit SPX 1040 first for a huge bounce. Perhaps the IRS will have something to do with it (that is supposed to be a joke).

My turning point analysis shows some kind of a turn on Monday 9/26. Perhaps the market wanders a little down (fake out cliff diving again) and then sideways for 1-2 sessions to work off the oversold condition and then the blow-off rally starts. After that, the next primary wave down starts. Perhaps this is when Greece defaults. Cycle theory shows a major low coming near the end of October.

 

[Uptrend]

I have shorted the Wilshire 4500, so lets go down and get it over with.

Good Move

 

[jkenjohnson]

Good Move

Thanks. I get lucky once in a while.