Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

OK, I think I got it. In layman's terms, just compare the RSI of both the S&P and W4500?

That is one way. You will notice that the Wilshire 4500 will oscillate to a greater degree, up and down (more reactive) than the large cap SPX. However in todays environment, where ETF leveraged and inverse funds are being traded,tend to strip the large cap value unnecessarily during downdrafts. This probably makes great bounceback opportunities for some good fundamental large cap stocks.

 

[Uptrend]

R is for risk. Seems like the market is loaded with it. Imagine a trap door at the base of your TSP account, and at times and for no apparent reason, the door opens and your account takes a dump. No stops trading. So where is risk now? See chart.



This is the SPX 500 price chart with the 40 week ema shown. Generally, the market is bullish whenever it is above, and more bearish below. Right now the 40 week ema is sloping down more steeply (not gently sloping like the June 2010 low), and is going through 1257. The market, so far, does not even have enough strength to get back up there. Wave 3 high of the previous uptrend might have something to do with it, as the SPX so far cannot gain a foothold above it (horizontal yellow line). I still count 4 waves in this primary wave I down, no matter what timeframe one observes. So, IMHO wave 5 must lie ahead. I just don't believe we had a truncated wave 5, and now a bullish upmove, as the fundamentals just don't support that position.

O course I will observe, evaluate and modify as necessary. It seems wave 4 took longer to develop than I had previously estimated, but now the market seems to be rolling over in this contra-trend move. Wave 5 down could be starting now, or there might be a retracement to about SPX 1180-1190 for a higher low, and then an advance to tag the 200 ema in the daily timeframe at guess where: SPX 1257. There couild be a decision point; if a reverse to the upside comes in the next several days off support - either enter and play (if on sidelines), or wait for a larger rally after wave 5 completes. That might come later this month. Waiting and looking for clues.

 

[DakotaKid]

Thanks for the great analysis Uptrend. I want to make sure I understand this correctly. A wave 5 down should go below the low of Wave 3 - or 1100, right? What happens if we, say, go down to 1150 then start rising again, is that considered part of Wave 5, or a continuation of wave 4? TIA.

 

[Mcqlives]

Thanks for the great analysis Uptrend. I want to make sure I understand this correctly. A wave 5 down should go below the low of Wave 3 - or 1100, right? What happens if we, say, go down to 1150 then start rising again, is that considered part of Wave 5, or a continuation of wave 4? TIA.

If I may be so bold, Uptrend, let me field this one for you and see if you concur.

DakotaKid, the short answer is...yes. The long answer is that the waves are continually evolving so people are continuously making adjustments to their trend analysis. Depending on next weeks data, as well as several European countries market reports, 1150 with a rise could represent an extended portion of Wave 4 or an initial portion of Wave 5. Back to the short answer, though, be ready to roll the dice fast because when the bull commences running on this next leg up it will be a fast ride!

 

[polarbear]

I look forward to your weekend analysis, Uptrend. My point of view and concerns are similar to yours, but you seem to know more about it. (I try to figure out the Elliott waves, read Tony Caldaro, sometimes Daneric, but that has limited predictive power; TA is also needed) This thread and the comments of its members is very useful to me. The nervousness-inducing part of managing one's TSP account is the feeling of being in the dark with regard to the market. There are so many conflicting voices out there, quite cacophonic, things can change 180 in a day. I think fear can return to this market once it stops drinking the kool-aid (wakes up). That may have just happened. The thot of a speech on the economy by Obama (a rightwing fellow worker of mine calls him Obumbles) fills me with howling laughter, and as has been pointed out on this website, I think by Tom, the German supreme court will rule on Sept.8, plus other things may be developing in Europe (Finland stomping its feet more loudly, with a few go-alongs; the Gk. thing making new noises, whatever).

I can't find it, only Adults get life-sized sandbox near Las Vegas. Well, it's about time.

BTW, look at the US dollar this week: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

 

[jkenjohnson]

I look forward to your weekend analysis, Uptrend. My point of view and concerns are similar to yours, but you seem to know more about it. (I try to figure out the Elliott waves, read Tony Caldaro, sometimes Daneric, but that has limited predictive power; TA is also needed) This thread and the comments of its members is very useful to me. The nervousness-inducing part of managing one's TSP account is the feeling of being in the dark with regard to the market. There are so many conflicting voices out there, quite cacophonic, things can change 180 in a day. I think fear can return to this market once it stops drinking the kool-aid (wakes up). That may have just happened. The thot of a speech on the economy by Obama (a rightwing fellow worker of mine calls him Obumbles) fills me with howling laughter, and as has been pointed out on this website, I think by Tom, the German supreme court will rule on Sept.8, plus other things may be developing in Europe (Finland stomping its feet more loudly, with a few go-alongs; the Gk. thing making new noises, whatever).

I can't find it, only Adults get life-sized sandbox near Las Vegas. Well, it's about time.

BTW, look at the US dollar this week: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

I hope you did not get back in?

 

[jkenjohnson]

My personal opinion is that what we have seen in the last few weeks is market manipulation by Wall Street in its' finest form. Keep pounding the little guys into thinking how cheap stocks are through the media, let the market rise 5-7% through our believing it and then WHAM - sell off and start the whole cycle over. In the next few days you will see all of the analysts saying how cheap everything is and it will initiate a buying cycle until such time as the greedy Wall Street bunch decide to take their profits. I would not be surprised to find out that they meet each week to determine when the sell date will be. Call me paranoid or whatever, but I truly believe that the market is highly manipulated. Anybody agree or disagree?

 

[Appatite]

My personal opinion is that what we have seen in the last few weeks is market manipulation by Wall Street in its' finest form. Keep pounding the little guys into thinking how cheap stocks are through the media, let the market rise 5-7% through our believing it and then WHAM - sell off and start the whole cycle over. In the next few days you will see all of the analysts saying how cheap everything is and it will initiate a buying cycle until such time as the greedy Wall Street bunch decide to take their profits. I would not be surprised to find out that they meet each week to determine when the sell date will be. Call me paranoid or whatever, but I truly believe that the market is highly manipulated. Anybody agree or disagree?

Do you really think anybody here is going to disagree. I think people on wall street are able to manipulate 2per month IFTers.

 

[Uptrend]

Weekend Analysis:

On 8/22 (post #2076) I first started talking about the large bullish falling wedge in play on the SPX charts (daily timeframe). Since that time the market broke out (bullish) and now a backtest is in the cards. Dont get fooled here; I still believe we are in a bear market overall. See the enclosed daily and hourly SPX charts. There are 2 scenarios, depending on which way the waves unfold; one up and one down. If the market bounces off 1140 tomorrow and goes up we would have a successful backtest, scenario 1 on the charts, and a probable minimal target of 1270 ish. If a close below 1140 and then 1136, we have a wave failure and would be scenario 2. This means EWT wave 5 of primary wave 1 was not truncated and is still unfolding.

I am holding to the September 6-7 turn date (Tuesday or Wednesday), so am expecting scenario 1. This turn date was determined long beforehand and was projected in my 8/22 post. A buy signal may be given for Uptrends system before 9 AM on one of the next two days.

The next important turn date is September 26. Thanks for reading my posts.

 

[DakotaKid]

Looks like we've bounced off 1140... possibly? Noon is just too early to tell.... Think you'll make an entry today?

 

[JTH]

Uptrend, have you factored in the 911 fear, post 911 could be a turn date.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Uptrend, have you factored in the 911 fear, post 911 could be a turn date.

Good point, anything could spook this market.

 

[Uptrend]

Tuesday 9/6 closing data TA update. This is one scary chart, and it just does not get any better. See SPX chart.



I have updated the probable evolving EWT wave count as I see it. I now believe we are probably starting wave 5 down of primary wave I, which should last most of the month. Wave 5a down from the recent 1231 high started on 9/1. Wave 5b appears to be underway. Waves 5c,5d and 5e are still to come. Wave 5b is an upwave, but should stall at the channel trendline and diagonal resistance near 1205 for a lower high. Sure, a buy signal might trigger (has not yet), but the upside potential is very limited. It is more like a scalp play.

You can see a huge bear flag pattern developing. It measures to SPX 985.

The US dollar has surged in the last 5 sessions, and is now above the 50ema and just below the 200ema. The USD based for about 3-4 months, and appears to be waking up and about to go on a tear. And the Euro/USD cross looks like a breakdown ready to happen. This will put pressure on equities. Bond prices are still surging. We also have the 9/11 10th anniversary to consider as JTH and others have mentioned.

Be careful out there.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Uptrend,

It sounds like the September 6th or 7th position trade is dead? Do you have a new target in mind?

HT

 

[Uptrend]

The dollar is surging and the Euro broke down. This will be bad for the US market.

 

[Uptrend]

Here is a 5 minute chart of SPX this AM. This is a classic mini-bear flag and points to SPX 1152. That is close to the breakdown area of the giant bear flag, but just short. See my post below on the US dollar surge and the Euro breakdown.

 

[polarbear]

Whether one uses your waves or Tony Caldaro's -- they are similar -- it shows maybe a short, or at best shortish, rebound, and then the plunge. The 2 IFT's decides it on top of prudence. Pick up some change maybe and count yourself out for the rest of September (maybe not so bad as the plunge may go on that long) or keep your powder dry in order to get in, in late September if the drop ends around then. That is my thinking. Thanks for the input, Uptrend.

It's possible today might be a good "in" day and that Monday will be an up day after nothing happens on the anniversary of 9/11. But even so . . . It's anybody's guess what will happen in Europe. I think they are so close to the precipice with Greece that they have shaken themselves wide awake. Whatever. So at least neutral things coming out of Europe for a few days would help a short bounce, but that's all just a coin toss. This is almost an inviting day to get in, but it's starting to look -- to me, at any rate -- that September may be a case of August-II. Oh, and then there's the FOMC mtg in late Sept. Also, whatever.

 

[LoDown]

Made my IFT deadline today, heading into the S fund today. Missed it Wednesday(still input it, but cancelled), but I'm glad I cancelled the IFT, would have lost money. I'm counting on that big Monday surge as well, and then a quick G retreat.

 

[Uptrend]

it shows maybe a short, or at best shortish, rebound, and then the plunge. .

Rather, I think we are in the 3rd wave down of 5 of primary wave one. This is a downwave and should break below 1148 and bring the big bear flag into play. A recalculation of the measured drop of the giant bear flag, based on current price action with time shows a final target near SPX 960. However, I think we pause and retrace somewhat in the 1040 area where there is strong support. Perhaps this is where wave 4 of 5 of primary wave one develops (an upwave). I would not seek any entry until 1040, unless the 1148 trendline holds and internals improve, which would then throw out my wavecount. But I just don't expect it.

 

[Uptrend]

Update on todays price action via the mini bear flag on the 5 minute SPX chart. You can see it predicts and measured in a textbook fashion. The 18 points measured move, when subtracted from the breakdown of the flag landed right at SPX 1152 or a fraction under it. So, if it is easy to believe that a small bear flag pattern can meet the target, why is it so hard to believe that a far larger or giant multi-week bear flag pattern, seen in the daily timeframe (post #2133), cannot do the same thing?

On the 5 minute chart you can also see the dotted line. If that breaks (around SPX 1148), then the large bear flag, as a target prediction tool, is in play, because that is the lower boundary of the flag.